The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase of job losses and high unemployment

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) looks at six key economic indicators, including industrial production, to determine when the economy is experiencing a recession.

A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of shrinking GDP

Recessions are sustained downturns in the economy. They’re significant, widespread, and there’s no single, surefire way to define or predict them.

Recessions are often called retroactively, rather than while they’re occurring

Because recessions are recognized when a wide array of economic factors like falling GDP and high unemployment converge, they are often officially recognized after the fact.

The US unemployment rate soared to over 24% during the Great Depression

The Great Depression was a devastating and prolonged economic recession that followed the crash of the US stock market in 1929.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

US homeownership rates declined from the start of the Great Recession through 2016

In 2004, the US homeownership rate was 69%. When the bubble popped in 2007, due to a variety of factors (including the prevalence of subprime mortgages) the Great Recession began. Foreclosures increased, as did the ratio of renters to homeowners. In 2016, the homeownership rate was at roughly 63.4%.

Why the employment report matters to Wall Street

On the first Friday of every month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the infamous "jobs report." The report essentially tracks how US employment is doing, from the unemployment rate to the number of people in the US currently on payroll. But most importantly, the jobs report has major implications for the economy at large. To find out how this monthly report impacts Wall Street, read this article.

The US youth unemployment rate jumped from 6.6% in 2023 to 10.4% in 2025

Specifically, the "youth unemployment rate" here refers to those aged 16 to 24. Whether the culprit is AI, more people getting college degrees or something else, experts argue this could have a negative impact on the economy going forward.

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

Its predictability distinguishes SAD from other forms of depression

Most major depression is "stochastic"—brought on without a clear trigger. SAD—also known as major depression with a seasonal component—is unique in that its onset is predictable. Many of those affected can predict its occurrence accurately within a range of three weeks. This podcast explores this unusual feature of SAD, among other expert takes.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is among the most famous pieces of economic legislation in the US

In a desperate move to save the economy from the deepening global depression, the US placed tariffs on thousands of goods from abroad. This approach backfired, as many of America’s trade partners took retaliatory measures.

US holiday retail sales reached $973B in 2024

In 2024, US holiday retail sales reached $973B—nearly one-fifth of annual sales. Many companies depend on this season to bolster revenues.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

View US solar energy industry trends and trajectories, tracked by SEIA

The Solar Energy Industries Association provides charts summarizing the state of solar energy in the US, including cumulative solar installations, solar jobs, photovoltaic pricing and deployment, and inflation and supply chain constraints within the market.

See every time the minimum wage has been raised

Unlike some other nations, the US minimum wage isn’t tied to inflation. So instead of it automatically rising alongside the cost of living, Congress has to vote to raise the minimum wage every time they think it’s necessary.

The US is one of two countries that abide by a predetermined borrowing limit

When the Treasury hits this “debt ceiling,” Congress has to pass a bill increasing the borrowing threshold. Failure to do so may lead to a financial crisis.

So-called 'recession blondes and brunettes' skip hair appointments to save money

One hairstyle trend is seen as a recession indicator: people letting their hair grow darker roots instead of frequently splurging on expensive blonde highlights.

US state economies compared to entire countries

This map compares US state economies by their gross domestic product to that of a similarly sized country. For instance, California has the largest state economy in the US, with a GDP nearly equal to that of India, the fifth-largest economy in the world. Click here to see how the rest of the states compare.

The lifecycle of a financial bubble often follows a predictable pattern

Economist Hyman Minsky originated what became a five-stage model of an economic bubble: a new “displacement,” a rapid boom, euphoric speculation, early profit-taking by insiders, and finally panic selling. From Japan’s 1980s real-estate surge to the 2008 crash, the pattern repeats across eras and assets.

Ramadan tends to reduce Gulf productivity, but increases reported happiness

Economists have documented a measurable dip in productivity and output in Muslim-majority countries during Ramadan. But surveys consistently show the opposite on subjective well-being, with people reporting they feel better and more connected.

Beyond oil, the Iran war is pushing up costs on fertilizer, prescriptions, and mortgages, too

Gas is up 27% since fighting began, but the Strait of Hormuz also carries a third of the world's fertilizer, petrochemicals used in generic drugs, and helium for semiconductor manufacturing. Mortgage rates have climbed back above 6.4%, and economists warn $130 oil could tip the U.S. into recession.

Calculate whether or not you're in the American middle class

In 2022, roughly 52% of US adults lived in middle-income households. This income calculator can help you determine whether or not you're one of them. Specifically, the calculator lets you enter your household income, location, and more to see where you line up in Pew's government data.

Voting by mail in the US

Voting by mail, also known as “absentee” voting, exists in every US state in various forms. Use Reuters’ graphic to understand voting by mail in the US. The practice of voting by mail dates back to the US Civil War when lawmakers wanted to...

Roughly 43 million US borrowers owe roughly $1.7T in student debt, the second-largest source of consumer debt behind mortgages.

The first steps to rebuilding your credit score include getting to know exactly what's on your credit report and figuring out how far you are from the '700 club,' or 'good score' range.

In 2026, Finland was named the world's happiest country for the ninth consecutive year based on its wealth, social safety network, and high life expectancy, among other factors.

The United States has had a tumultuous relationship with Cuba since its 1959 revolution, highlighted by a nuclear crisis and a decades-long trade embargo.

Discover the catastrophic consequences of a failure of the US electrical grid—something that is more likely than many Americans think.

The American Society of Civil Engineers' infrastructure report card gave the US a C in 2025, its highest grade since the project launched in 1998.

See a ranking of the best (and worst) Federal Reserve Chairs since 1914 out of the 16 men and women who have held the office since.

Some coin denominations have ridges etched on their sides, partly to prevent counterfeiting, in a practice called 'reeding.'

The hormonal disorder PCOS was renamed PMOS in 2026, a move designed to improve care and research by shifting the focus to the hormonal causes of this condition that affects 1 in 8 women.

'Shogun,' a 1980s TV series, helped popularize sushi in the US by stimulating an American interest in Japanese culture.

See this overview of the firework rules across all 50 states, ranging from a complete ban on non-professional fireworks in Massachusetts to states with more lax rules like Indiana.

Mark Twain spent decades feuding with the US Postal Service, convinced its costs and regulations were bureaucratic overreach.

Long before Major League Baseball began allowing instant replay for balls and strikes, an umpire reluctantly used the technology to determine whether a hit was a home run, a move that inadvertently ushered in a new era for the sport.

For centuries, it was common to sleep in two shifts: a few hours at the beginning of the night, and a longer period beginning around midnight

The Nasdaq's 'Magnificent 7' companies are responsible for roughly 40% of the Nasdaq 100 index's gains, while the remaining 93 companies account for the other 60%.

Up to a million Girl Scouts sell about 200 million cookie boxes every spring, generating $800 million, largely because refusing a child is frowned upon

Take a 3D tour of the Hajj, Islam's annual pilgrimage to Mecca, undertaken by more than 1.5 million Muslims each year.

Alzheimer's can lead to brain shrinkage, with an average of around 2% of volume reduction per year

In 2025, four executives from large tech companies were given positions in the US Army Reserves—including Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar, which reinforced Palantir's ties with the US military and its role as a leading defense partner.

Explore what it's like inside a patient isolation unit, used in situations such as treating a patient or suspected patient with Ebola.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Watch contemporary footage covering the US-backed Shah of Iran fleeing the country in the face of the 1979 Iranian Revolution

Sunflowers have long been a symbol of nuclear disarmament because they can extract large amounts of radioactive cesium from soil.

The Beatles' US label rejected the band's first two singles, 'Please Please Me' and 'From Me to You,' with one executive calling the band 'dead in the water.'

To reduce wrinkles in clothing, research recommends gentle wash cycles with more water and tumble drying with smaller loads and longer times.