The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

Periodically, the Federal Open Market Committee decides whether to raise, hold, or lower the federal funds rate

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend their excess funds through the Fed. This influences what banks are willing to pay consumers for their deposits in savings and CD accounts. Typically, the higher the federal funds rate, the higher the interest rates on CDs.

What’s the outlook for CD rates in 2025?

The federal funds rate can have a big impact on CD interest rates. That means it also affects the amount of money any given CD can earn you. To learn more about how CD rates will look in 2025, and how recent rate cuts correlate to that, read this article.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

The two-day marathon meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee follow a logical process of information sharing

In a stately room in the Eccles Building in Washington, DC, the 17 participants of the FOMC and their aides report on economic conditions and decide monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve follows the health of the US economy by tracking the money supply

That includes all of the physical and electronic money in circulation. It tracks not only US coins and bills, but also the money that moves through bank deposits. The Fed uses metrics called trackers to follow different types of transactions through the money supply.

See all 16 Fed Chairs ranked by stock market performance

Sixteen people have held the office of Fed Chair since 1913, with varying results. From the Fed’s first leader, Charles Hamlin, to Jerome Powell, see in a ranked list how stocks fared for each chair within distinct macroeconomic conditions.

'Floating rate' loans periodically adjust their interest rates in accordance with economic conditions

When the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022 to combat inflation, interest payments borrowers owed to private credit lenders increased accordingly. Private credit funds benefited as loan returns increased, making the asset class attractive to investors at the time.

The Federal Reserve didn't institute an official no comment period before meetings until 2011

Although Fed governors have largely practiced some version of a blackout period before Federal Open Market Committee meetings where the board decides where interest rates should be since the 1980s, the official blackout period wasn't formalized until 2011. During the blackout, members of the Federal Reserve generally aren't allowed to speak publicly on macroeconomic or monetary policy in order to avoid any confusion over the board's decisions.

Visualizing 40 years of interest rates

The history of interest rates are a proxy of macroeconomic conditions, with higher interest rates indicating periods of decline requiring artificial central stimulation. In a series of charts illustrating rates and their background conditions, you can see the movement of the economy over a forty-year period ending in 2020. Dive into the data here.

The US dollar's value weakened significantly in 2025 amid tariffs

Experts at US Bank predicted in August 2025, that the downward trend was likely to continue, although they acknowledged that uncertainty remains high. As tariffs moved to the center of the White House’s agenda, all G10 currencies grew stronger against the dollar—the Swiss franc even posted double-digit gains.

Read former Fed chair Ben Bernanke's 2002 speech about preventing deflation

Very low inflation rates in the early 2000s in the United States and a worsening recession in Japan sparked some domestic concern over the threat of deflation. While Bernanke wasn't Chair at the time of the speech, he emphasized the Fed's role in preventing deflation.

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

The stock market's volatility between 2017 and 2025, visualized

The CBOE Volatility Index measures expected stock market volatility using the prices of options on the S&P 500. When traders expect large moves in the market, options prices tend to rise as more options are purchased to bet on the direction of the move.

Housing 'starts'— new constructions—signal the health and future of real estate

The Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED, tracks monthly “housing starts,” the number of new residential construction projects being built. Some argue this data can serve as an economic barometer.

'Planet Money' debates the financial indicators that defined 2025

In this end-of-year episode, "Planet Money" stages a playful debate over which economic indicators best captured the chaos of 2025—from tariffs to AI bubbles—and which signals may matter most as the US economy heads into 2026.

How much power does the Federal Reserve really have?

Although mechanisms for transparency exist, it wouldn’t be difficult for the incredibly powerful institution to go rogue in the wrong hands. In this podcast episode, analysts game out how such a scenario would go.

See a ranking of the best (and worst) Federal Reserve Chairs since 1914 out of the 16 men and women who have held the office since.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Compare different mutual funds

Figure out what type of mutual fund is right for you with this tool. Use the search bar to find info on any mutual fund. If you’re deciding between multiple funds, you can select them all to get a comparative analysis on rates, fees, and returns.

Tracking the accuracy of past and future predictions of the apocalypyse

Religious figures, scientists, technologists and others have long heralded the ending of the world in what in some traditions is called the apocalypse. This site tracks those failed predictions in the past and charts those coming up in the future.

The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends

The US is in a recession when the average US unemployment rate over three months rises by half a percentage point from a 12-month low, according to the Sahm rule.

Explore the Council on Foreign Relations' essay collection on the future of US foreign policy

This project brings together expert essays examining the future of American strategy, regional relations, geoeconomics, great power rivalry, and war in a rapidly changing global landscape.

Some semi-liquid private credit funds saw a surge in investor redemptions in early 2026

This raised red flags about the state of the private credit market at large. However, experts have cautioned that the idea that private credit is on the verge of collapse is overstated.

The SEC recently approved bitcoin ETFs in landmark investing decision

In January 2024, the US Securities and Exchange Commission made history when it decided to allow fund issuers to launch bitcoin ETFs. This new class of exchange-traded fund tracks spot bitcoin prices, essentially allowing investors to hold bitcoin without actually having to buy the crypto.

Many economists see Black Friday as a litmus test for consumer confidence

Some investors and analysts look at Black Friday’s sales numbers as a way to gauge the overall health of the retail industry—and consumer confidence at large. However, others don’t believe Black Friday results have a particularly significant impact on markets, arguing that the figures only cause short-term gains or losses.

Eruption forecasting relies on probabilistic methods resembling weather forecasting

While some volcanoes erupt with predictable signs, such as surface deformation from the build-up of underground magma pressure, others release magma at inconsistent rates. Extensive monitoring is needed to identify less clear patterns and indicators of future eruptions.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

The USPS spent $3.97B in 2024, accounting for .058% of the federal budget.

US housing costs have risen by roughly 175% between 1991 and 2026—but a growing number of Gen Zers are becoming homeowners anyway. In 2025, 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before.

Use this tool to calculate the dollar value of your parental mental load, from meal planning to coordinating after-school care, then see resources that help generate solutions.

The US dollar is the most widely circulated currency in the world, and is involved in nearly 90% of global transactions

The price of gas is a composite made up of several different factors, with the federal gas tax making up less than 20% of what drivers pay at the pump.

The American Society of Civil Engineers' infrastructure report card gave the US a C in 2025, its highest grade since the project launched in 1998.

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

The first steps to rebuilding your credit score include getting to know exactly what's on your credit report and figuring out how far you are from the '700 club,' or 'good score' range.

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

How Amazon operates a 'flywheel' business model, a self-reinforcing cycle that drives continuous growth

Despite being favored by 87% of Americans, Congress does not have term limits.

In 2025, four executives from large tech companies were given positions in the US Army Reserves—including Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar, which reinforced Palantir's ties with the US military and its role as a leading defense partner.

11 people died from firework injuries in the US in 2024.

Long before Major League Baseball began allowing instant replay for balls and strikes, an umpire reluctantly used the technology to determine whether a hit was a home run, a move that inadvertently ushered in a new era for the sport.

The hormonal disorder PCOS was renamed PMOS in 2026, a move designed to improve care and research by shifting the focus to the hormonal causes of this condition that affects 1 in 8 women.

One disco producer saw 'Star Wars' four times on its opening weekend and was so inspired that he recorded the album 'Star Wars and Other Intergalactic Funk,' which produced a chart-topping single.

See the evolution of Ebola vaccine and treatment development.

Some renewable energy sources may weaken the resiliency of electric grids by removing outage buffers provided by coal- and natural gas-fired plants, which provide the system with more time to find a new power source if a plant goes down.

Most of the observable universe's volume consists of voids and supervoids—enormous regions of space with little to no galaxies, stars, or light.

Clever Hans was a 1900s horse that was believed to be able to solve math equations, tell time, and read and comprehend German, until a psychology student discovered how he got his answers.

Sunflowers have long been a symbol of nuclear disarmament because they can extract large amounts of radioactive cesium from soil.