A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

Modern prediction markets started in Iowa in 1988

The University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets were introduced during the 1988 US presidential election. The beginning of their origin story almost sounds like a joke: Three economists walked into a bar.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes

On prediction markets, bettors bid up or down the price of contracts based on what they expect an event's outcome to be. Bettors bid up prices when they think an event is more likely to occur than the current contract price shows, so they buy the contracts, pushing the price higher. They bid down prices by selling these contracts when they believe an event is less likely to occur, driving the price down due to supply and demand.

Prediction markets have faced questions about insider trading

While prediction markets encourage bettors to use their knowledge of a situation to inform their trades, these platforms have faced questions about when this borders on insider trading. For instance, traders on Kalshi can bet on who Taylor Swift's bridesmaids will be—but some worry that it would be unfair for Taylor Swift herself to earn money on that specific bet.

The worst election polling fails in US history

Presidential pollsters in the US have had some embarrassing failures. Here’s a catalog of those miscalls, from the scholar who literally wrote the book on them.

How George Gallup changed political polling forever

Straw polls had been used in the 19th century, but it wasn't until George Gallup's use of random sampling in 1936 that the art became a science.

How political campaigns use your data

What do campaigns know about US voters, and how do they use that information to shape their strategies during elections? US political campaigns base their strategies and tactics on data collected from more than 200 million voting-age Americans. This visualization by Reuters breaks down how data firms create national databases of voter files, collecting information from a variety of sources to create detailed voter profiles and how political campaigns use that data.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

A 'Simpsons' writer on the show's inadvertent predictions

Some have noted that "The Simpsons" has accurately anticipated a number of events years before they happened. In this interview, showrunner Al Jean explains how these unintentional predictions came about and why he believes the events were not so much visions of the future as educated guesses.

Nate Silver argues the Electoral College can reduce the impact of excess votes

In this article, Silver weighs the Electoral College's flaws—especially popular-vote inversions—against its advantages, arguing it can limit the effect of surplus votes in heavily one-sided states and encourage broader competition.

Tracking the accuracy of past and future predictions of the apocalypyse

Religious figures, scientists, technologists and others have long heralded the ending of the world in what in some traditions is called the apocalypse. This site tracks those failed predictions in the past and charts those coming up in the future.

How chaos helps explain why small market corrections can produce major economic instability

Oxford University complex systems professor Doyne Farmer discusses how predictions from many economic models are overly weighted toward simple relationships, such as supply and demand, and external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, real-world macroeconomic systems involve public and private actors interacting, producing feedback loops and cascading effects that resemble the oscillatory behavior seen in chaotic systems.

Expert predictions on the metaverse

Experts are split about the likely evolution of a truly immersive metaverse. Many worry current online problems may be magnified if Web3 development is led by those who built today’s dominant web platforms.

Personality tests use the Barnum effect, where vague flattery makes generic descriptions feel specific

A 1949 experiment by psychologist Bertram Forer showed that students rated identical, generic personality profiles as highly personalized. This is the same approach used in horoscopes, Myers-Briggs personality types, and fortune tellers. Even well-resourced tests like Myers-Briggs show poor test-retest reliability, with up to half of retakers getting different results.

A majority of Americans think President Trump is using more power than previous presidents

An October 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that 69% of Americans believed President Trump was trying to exert more power than previous presidents. Most Democrats viewed it negatively, while about half of Republicans said it was good for the country.

The odds of a perfect March Madness bracket are worse than finding one specific grain of sand on Earth

With 63 games to predict, random guessing produces odds of 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Even an informed picker who gets 67% of games right faces odds of about 1 in 120 billion, meaning if every American filled out a unique bracket, we'd expect a perfect one in roughly 366 years.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Testing assumptions about the war in Ukraine, one year later

Two years ago, policymakers in Washington made multiple predictions about the course of the war between Russia and Ukraine. One year later this site revisited several common assumptions about the war—for example, that Russia would swiftly defeat Ukraine—and asks several experts if they came true, or not. But things can always change.

AI-powered models can provide low-cost, localized and accurate weather forecasting

These models can run on standard laptops, reducing the need for expensive supercomputers and expanding access to developing regions. AI forecasts can help farmers make informed planting decisions, improving crop yields and reducing costs.

The US youth unemployment rate jumped from 6.6% in 2023 to 10.4% in 2025

Specifically, the "youth unemployment rate" here refers to those aged 16 to 24. Whether the culprit is AI, more people getting college degrees or something else, experts argue this could have a negative impact on the economy going forward.

The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

A common misconception is that regions beyond the cone are safe, but the spread does not depict the full reach of a cyclone's wind, rain, or storm surges. The cone is not built from real-time storm data but is an average forecast error from the past five years.

Genetic blood test offers an estimated clock on when Alzheimer's symptoms may appear

The 2026 research finding from researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis—if validated in broader populations—suggests that an already available blood test could estimate when Alzheimer's symptoms may begin within a margin of several years. The test detects a protein called p-tau217 found in blood plasma and the researchers incorporated the findings from that blood test into a statistical model to come up with the symptom timeline predictions.

Meme stocks often have little underlying value but are fueled by crowd funding

"Meme stocks" is a phrase originating in the early 2020s, referring to companies with little underlying value who gain recognition through social media and whose stock price experiences rapid gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. the S&P 500: Which one is a better representation of the economy?

The Dow and S&P 500 are both indexes meant to provide a broad representation of the economy. The Dow has 30 companies and is weighted by share price, while the S&P 500 has 500 different companies weighted by market capitalization. Since the indexes are so different, investors don't always agree on which index is a better representation of the economy—though the two move in the same direction more than 90% of the time.

Research suggests articles on Wikipedia are about as reliable as 'accurate' sources

Studies from Nature, The Guardian, the Journal of Clinical Oncology, and the Canadian Library Association, among others, did not identify significant errors, particularly in articles related to academic topics. The site is still considered an exploratory, tertiary source subject to systemic biases from its human editors, especially within controversial topics.

Warren Buffett’s investing advice includes never paying too high a price for any investment

Buffett is perhaps the greatest investor of all time, and his investing philosophies are highly regarded and practiced around the world. His advice also includes investing in productive assets (like stocks, bonds, and real estate) and imagining what could go wrong before thinking about how much money you could make.

While the first exchange-traded fund (a 'basket' of different assets that can be bought and sold on a stock exchange) in the US only launched in 1993, the global ETF market has grown to more than $10T in the short time since.

Warren Buffett's former professor Benjamin Graham is known as the 'father of value investing,' a strategy in which investors seek to buy stocks trading below their intrinsic worth.

Crows are believed to have intelligence on par with a seven-year-old child and demonstrate complex behaviors, from problem-solving with tools to recognizing human faces.

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

Clever Hans was a 1900s horse that was believed to be able to solve math equations, tell time, and read and comprehend German, until a psychology student discovered how he got his answers.

The power and influence of the American presidency have expanded significantly over time—far beyond what the founders envisioned.

This site reaches millions of visitors who are tired of AI chatbots and seeking human connection. Pretend to be an AI chatbot and ask questions, provide answers, and draw for people in real time.

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

44% of Americans say they pray at least once a day—discover how your state's religiosity stacks up against the rest of the country.

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

Discover the catastrophic consequences of a failure of the US electrical grid—something that is more likely than many Americans think.

US housing costs have risen by roughly 175% between 1991 and 2026—but a growing number of Gen Zers are becoming homeowners anyway. In 2025, 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before.

In 2026, Finland was named the world's happiest country for the ninth consecutive year based on its wealth, social safety network, and high life expectancy, among other factors.

Exploring the Larry Bird punch that almost changed March Madness

A Yale student wrote a profound essay about the consulting industry's influence on elite college students that was published in a book of her writing after she died in a post-graduation car accident.

An Ebola vaccine was developed during the 2018 west African Ebola outbreak, but the 2026 Ebola outbreak is with a different species of the virus, not the one that the vaccine is approved to treat.

A 2019 Facebook event called on attendees to "Storm Area 51, They Can't Stop All of Us," resulting in countless memes, the creation of a music festival, and eventually the arrests of those who did try to approach the area.

'Silent' fireworks have gained more interest in recent years as a quieter celebratory option.

Art theft is the third-largest source of criminal revenues worldwide, thanks in part to the subjective nature of valuing a work of art.

Recent research found that the brain doesn't seem to massively rewire following amputation—upending earlier beliefs about the cause of phantom limb pain.

Coral polyps reproduce via broadcast spawning, where entire reefs simultaneously release reproductive cells for about one hour, once a year.

Scientists testing how climate change affects plants found, in a years-long simulation study, that poison ivy grew 70% faster with the resulting extra carbon dioxide.

Stanford built a Google Maps for the Roman Empire, revealing how much it cost to travel in the ancient world

The distributor behind 'Rocky Horror' pulled the film from its scheduled national release, believing it would be a failure, though it eventually amassed a dedicated fanbase through midnight showings, a trend that continues over 50 years later.