How math whizzes exploit sportsbooks

Decoding sports-betting language

The world of sports gambling is filled with insider lingo: What's a "spread"? How about a "moneyline" or a "parlay"? This resource breaks down the jargon, helping you navigate the industry or, at least, giving you the keys to talk about it.

'Moneyball' author Michael Lewis believes sports betting is a problem for young men

The noted journalist and author of "Moneyball," "The Big Short," and "The Blind Side" has now fixed his discerning eye on the sports-betting industry. In this interview, he explains why he sees sports betting as a problem for American society, especially boys and young men, and why he believes the government needs to regulate the nascent industry more seriously.

Experts suggest the industry could be a $45B business

Sports betting used to primarily consist of who would win and the points spread, but the rise of online betting apps has fueled a substantial increase in parlay bets. "Existing markets are still growing at a rapid clip," said Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports-betting companies for Goldman Sachs. "So we’re not mature yet, but we’re not in the early wildcat days of the market anymore, either.”

Even athletes aren't immune to the sports-betting craze

While gambling scandals occasionally blew up before 2018, the widespread legalization of sports betting provided athletes with more opportunities to bet on the games they were playing.

Breaking down the jargon and strategy of horse betting

Placing bets on horse racing isn't the same as a football or basketball game. You can pick a winner (win), who will come in second (place), and even third (show). And all the bets placed on a race are pooled together and divided among the winners. This Top Ten Picks video teaches the mechanics behind each bet, and shares insider tips that can lead to more informed betting choices.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

Using scientific bets, Hawking challenged and highlighted major physics ideas

Hawking famously placed wagers on high-stakes questions in theoretical physics—such as the Higgs boson—for fun and to draw attention to science. When Hawking lost a bet about Cygnus X-1 being a black hole, he paid up with a magazine subscription.

'Scorigami' attempts to chart every NFL game score

The rules of the sport set bounds on possible final outcomes, so this adept statistician mined some fascinating takeaways. Some scores are impossible (like 5 to 1) and some are more common (like 20-17, occurring over 300 times since 1944). Watch for a deluge of numbers.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

The complicated economics of horse racing

The Triple Crown commands big ratings (and enormous amounts of money in betting) but the sport as a whole is in a precarious position, thanks to limited tracks and an overreliance on subsidies. This special from Freakonomics unpacks what all that means for the future of the sport.

Jim Simons, mathematician turned government codebreaker turned trader, revolutionized quantitative investing

The late Jim Simons is remembered as one of the most successful (and profitable) hedge fund managers of all time. He went from physically gathering microfilm on commodities pricing decades ago to overseeing a firm that led Wall Street in daily trading volume.

The betting scandal that rocked college basketball

In the 1940s and '50s, illegal bookmaking in college basketball was rampant at Madison Square Garden. In the 1949-50 season, City College of New York players shaved points during games, though they played honestly in the NIT and NCAA tournaments, winning both. This OddsShark.com article explores how the points-shaving scandal was exposed, who went to jail, and its impact on the NIT and CCNY.

A guide to sabermetrics, the empirical analysis of baseball statistics

The science of baseball overturned a century of assumptions about which metrics matter most. The approach originated key categories like WAR (wins above replacement, which tries to summarize a player's total contribution by estimating how many more wins this player generated compared to a replacement-level player) and wOBA (or weight on-base average, which measures not only hits but also walks and their outcomes in the score).

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

'Daily fantasy' is a high-stakes subset of fantasy sports

The form, pioneered by platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, uses anonymous daily leagues and large payouts, looks more like typical betting than the season-long, community-minded setup of more traditional fantasy.

How a brain injury created a mathematical mind

In 2002, two men savagely attacked Jason Padgett outside a karaoke bar, leaving him with a severe concussion--and turning Padgett into a mathematical genius.

NBA referee Tim Donaghy was paid roughly $300K to fix games

Donaghy said he struggled with a gambling addiction, causing him to risk so much. In this interview, he explains the story of his scandal, and how the mob led to his eventual arrest.

The odds of a perfect March Madness bracket are worse than finding one specific grain of sand on Earth

With 63 games to predict, random guessing produces odds of 1 in 9.2 quintillion. Even an informed picker who gets 67% of games right faces odds of about 1 in 120 billion, meaning if every American filled out a unique bracket, we'd expect a perfect one in roughly 366 years.

Statcast runs machine learning models in the 23-second gap between every pitch

The same Hawk-Eye cameras that track spin rate, exit velocity, and sprint speed also feed proprietary team models that update in near-real time. Some organizations have built streaming pipelines to surface insights mid-at-bat before the next pitch arrives.

Mathematicians often solve problems using wordless mental processes

It's a common technique among expert mathematicians, where thinkers rely on intuition, blurry perceptions and subconscious work—no writing, no formulas. The state is distinct from daydreaming, and often relies on sudden illuminations stemming from extended periods of subconscious reflection.

Among most mainstream sports broadcasts, sports betting ads appear most often in women's basketball and hockey

A random selection of 50 different sports broadcasts tracked one sports betting reference every four minutes. In one of the randomly selected hockey games, the longest stretch of no gambling reference lasted about five minutes towards the end of the game.

A hoops expert on the likely March Madness expansion

Rumors about March Madness expanding to a field of 76 teams have led to consternation among some college basketball fans, who believe overcrowding the tournament will dilute what makes it great. HoopsHQ's Seth Davis argues it's a good idea, comparing the change to college football's recent (and highly successful) playoff system.

The inventor of fantasy football first experimented with two other sports

In the mid-1950s, Wilfred “Bill” Winkenbach, a part-owner of the Oakland Raiders, concocted two fantasy sports games: one for Major League Baseball and one for the Professional Golfers’ Association. In 1962, he invented fantasy football alongside two writers from the Oakland Tribune.

The sophisticated math jokes of 'The Simpsons'

"The Simpsons" has always been a slyly sophisticated show and has featured more than a few references to complex mathematical concepts. That's largely due to its writers' room, which has featured more than one writer who studied math before transitioning to comedy.

Hear how gerrymandering is like 'Moneyball applied to politics'

In a 2016 interview, journalist David Daley explained how Republicans used data-driven targeting after the 2010 census to lock in durable advantages, comparing modern gerrymandering strategies to the analytics revolution in baseball.

Sports betting is legal in 47 states and the District of Columbia

This downloadable map provides an easy-to-see overview of each state's position on legalized gambling, including a breakdown of online versus retail betting. Click on a state, and a new page will provide information on what type of wagers are allowed, key regulations, tax rate data, and where that tax money will be allocated.

In 2008, the 'Big Short' mastermind Michael Burry made more than $700M.

What it means to call a bracket 'chalk'

If the tournament is rather boring, you might hear a curious word getting thrown around: "chalk." In short, it means that the favorites have been winning. The word's origins go back to horse racing and its sportsbooks, where bookies would post odds on chalkboards. Over time, the bookies came to be known as "chalk" and, years later, tournaments (and their brackets) that seemed to favor those bookies earned the name, too.

The most bizarre numbers in the universe

Even for math-y types, some numbers are incomprehensible. This article dives into several kinds of numbers more complicated than even irrational numbers with endless decimals like "pi" or Euler's number: Noncomputable numbers. Read the bizarre...

Meet Clever Hans, the 1900s horse that was believed to be able to solve math equations and read German

When Clever Hans was prompted with math questions, he responded by tapping his hoof to indicate his answers. Even a panel of experts found no indication of trickery in the horse's demonstrations. However, psychology student Oskar Pfungst found that Hans stopped tapping once a subtle cue on his owner's face told him to stop. The cues were so subtle that Wilhelm von Osten didn't even know he was giving them.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

Researchers identify a hidden instability pattern in simple ocean wave models

Stokes waves—a solution to the mathematics of water waves—were once assumed to be stable. Italian mathematicians have proven disturbances cause these waves to collapse and such collapses follow an infinite repeating pattern. To complete the proof, the team offered a $100 donation to solicit online help.

What makes Nikola Jokic a basketball genius

Nikola Jokic is widely considered one of the greatest players in the NBA and this detailed exploration of his singular mind shows why, identifying Jokic’s superpower—viewing the court like a chessboard—and helpfully pulling out plenty of footage to definitively prove the point.

How NFL teams mistake the values of their draft picks

The NFL draft is a highly anticipated event. Each spring football franchises take turns selecting roughly 250 players over seven rounds. Teams regularly trade draft picks to reach a certain player they expect to fall at their selection point, giving market analysts the ability to determine the value of those trades. This video explores the NFL draft market's inefficiency.

Where you fall on the sports misery index

Only one team can win it all each season, which means the majority of fans are disappointed. This bot mines the data on how your teams have performed in recent years and measures your misery index (the higher, the more miserable).

'Jeopardy!' super fans use a specific method to calculate a player's score

In its many decades on the air, “Jeopardy!” has developed a fervent fanbase that likes to play along at home. The Coryat score was developed by Karl Coryat, who appeared on the show in 1996. The equation ignores forced responses on Daily Doubles and Final Jeopardy! Correct responses for Daily Doubles are scored as their natural value.

One reason Americans are bad at math

The president of Barnard College explains why we need to better understand the links between math anxiety, math avoidance, and the US’s dismal test scores.

One man lost roughly $100K to a con artist—then turned it into a business

The victim of the con now helps other victims of similar crimes. He's also written a book and hosts a podcast on the subject.

A "no math" primer on quantum mechanics

Quantum mechanics may not immediately grasped, but it can be slowly understood through the experiments and discussions offered here by writer Dr. Miguel F. Morales. A professor of physics at the University of Washington in Seattle, Dr. Morales makes understanding the basics of quantum mechanics fun with a promised "no math" approach.

Traffic flow can be improved through research into card shuffling

Card-shuffling mathematics has been applied to solving problems in biology to estimate the evolutionary distance between organisms and in computer science to determine the optimal distribution of files and folders in databases.

The story of two female programmers running the simulations behind chaos theory's discovery

Margaret Hamilton and Ellen Fetter worked on MIT's 800-pound Royal McBee LGP-30 computer, which was fed binary code on paper tape to perform computations. Among the computations performed were those involving equations describing the motion of gas in a circulating fluid for Edward Lorenz, widely considered the father of chaos theory.

Active investors try to 'beat' the stock market's performance

There are two primary types of investment strategies that professional investors use: active investing and passive investing. While active investors try to "beat" the stock market's performance, passive investors have a bit more faith in the system.

Smart pricing algorithms can unintentionally work together to raise prices

Researchers have found that, through trial and error, algorithms designed to adjust prices based on market data can learn to mimic price-fixing tactics, even without explicit programming to do so. Over time, they "learn" that it is more profitable to avoid price wars and keep prices high when competitors lower prices.

See what makes a team a Cinderella—the term for an underdog that goes on an unexpected March Madness run

Fox Sports Research analyzed past Cinderella runs and found that most share a dynamic duo of players, strong conference tournament momentum, and an offense and defense that both rank in the top 80 nationally.

A quote from sports journalist Stuart Scott

"In football, as in life, the hits you don’t see coming are the ones that do the most damage."

Explore over 30,000 Olympiad-level math problems

Users can browse questions from 47 countries and 17 languages, sorted by topic across categories that include algebra, geometry, discrete mathematics, and number theory. Each problem is accompanied by at least one solution, with both authored in LaTeX that can be copied over to other platforms.

The Reddit forum r/WallStreetBets is a place to discuss high-risk trading strategies

r/WallStreetBets is a forum (aka a “subreddit”) on the social media platform Reddit that was started in 2012. Later, r/WallStreetBets evolved into a place where unconventional investment approaches were not just tolerated, but planned and celebrated. It’s perhaps most famous for its role in the GameStop saga.

Bubbles can exist in markets for collectibles, not just industries and technology

This podcast tells how "Magic: The Gathering" faced its own speculative bubble as rare cards surged in resale value—risking a Beanie Baby-style crash. It follows how the game’s creators tried to engineer a system to keep a collectibles market from collapsing.

Some attorneys are using true crime fans to their advantage

True crime fans are notorious for falling down rabbit holes. Now that passionate interest is being exploited by attorneys marshaling influencers to serve as informal public relations representatives, a trend that's blurring the lines between fan theories and reality.