Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Prediction market Kalshi's cofounders are former Wall Street traders

Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has described prediction markets as similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Prediction markets have faced questions about insider trading

While prediction markets encourage bettors to use their knowledge of a situation to inform their trades, these platforms have faced questions about when this borders on insider trading. For instance, traders on Kalshi can bet on who Taylor Swift's bridesmaids will be—but some worry that it would be unfair for Taylor Swift herself to earn money on that specific bet.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

Find out the difference between prediction markets, sports betting, and investing

As one expert put it, "investing is a long-term strategy to build wealth over time, speculation is an attempt to predict the future, and gambling is a game of luck."

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

Commodity trading is regulated by the CFTC to mitigate fraud and risk

Established in 1974, the CFTC regulates these markets (including swaps, futures, and certain types of options) to protect market participants from fraud, ensure fair trading conditions, and generally reduce financial risk.

Sports betting, explained

Since a 2018 Supreme Court decision overturned the Bradley Act, which spurred a state-by-state legalization of online gambling, sports betting has become a rapidly growing multibillion-dollar industry.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

How exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile act as trading referees

Chicago's Mercantile Exchange emphasizes futures contracts on commodities. This podcast episode breaks down how exchanges actually work, make money, and streamline the market.

A 2024 cheating scandal cast doubt on the industry

In 2024, National Fantasy Football Championship, a fantasy league with big payouts, fired one of its employees for manipulating data. The episode cast doubt on the relatively unregulated industry, despite the league coming down hard on the nefarious worker.

A 1954 Supreme Court ruling helped quiz shows avoid regulation

When the Federal Communications Committee attempted to rein in giveaway shows, the Supreme Court ruled that quiz shows were not a form of gambling because contestants did not have to risk anything to participate. Some believe that the ruling prevented proper oversight of the industry as it became more popular.

A landmark hedge fund court case once reshaped high finance

Hedge fund traders tied to insider trading by probing prosecutors are relatively rare. When billionaire hedge fund legend Steve Cohen, founder of SAC Capital, pleaded guilty to trading on inside information, Wall Street trembled. The outcome of the case remains a cautionary tale for traders today.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

Dissecting the legend of Sam Bankman-Fried

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange, rose to fame as a crypto visionary and was hailed as a genius. But he had a quick downfall in late 2022 when reports surfaced, implicating him in massive fraud.

Bubbles can exist in markets for collectibles, not just industries and technology

This podcast tells how "Magic: The Gathering" faced its own speculative bubble as rare cards surged in resale value—risking a Beanie Baby-style crash. It follows how the game’s creators tried to engineer a system to keep a collectibles market from collapsing.

Using scientific bets, Hawking challenged and highlighted major physics ideas

Hawking famously placed wagers on high-stakes questions in theoretical physics—such as the Higgs boson—for fun and to draw attention to science. When Hawking lost a bet about Cygnus X-1 being a black hole, he paid up with a magazine subscription.

'The Great Onion Corner:' Hear how short-selling onions ended with a ban on onion futures

In the early 1950s, onion farmer and produce trader Vince Kosuga cornered the onion market, resulting in a 1958 ban on onion futures from Congress. After stockpiling onions and buying onion futures, Kosuga then began shorting them. Then, he released his accumulated surplus of onions, driving the price down to essentially zero, and cashed in his short positions.

The spread of fraudulent stem cell treatments

All the coverage of research into promising (but often unproven) medical treatments involving stem cells has created conditions allowing some people to engage in activities regulators describe as scams. As this news article explains, attorneys general in at least seven states have taken legal action against businesses that promised (costly) stem cell treatments but allegedly engaged in fraud.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

There’s an artificial intelligence model trained on bankruptcy law

Although it's designed for lawyers, the tool is able to help everyday browsers synthesize important cases and point users to relevant documents about them. One sample using it asks Chatlaw to explain the significance of a recent case and then to define relevant terminology.

Meta's acquisition strategy for Instagram and WhatsApp led to a 5-year-long antitrust lawsuit

In 2020, the Federal Trade Commission sued Meta as part of the agency's efforts to rein in big tech companies. The FTC alleged that Meta overpaid for Instagram and WhatsApp in a "buy or bury" strategy to gain access to those companies' talent and diminish competition. In 2025, a federal judge sided with Meta, citing intense change in the social media landscape.

Federal law requires payday lenders to meet certain transparency requirements, but states have their own regulations

Federal law treats payday lending like other lines of credit, meaning it requires lenders to disclose the loan's interest rate and its "finance charge," a dollar amount expressing the full cost of the loan. But states have their own regulations around payday lending, hence why it isn't allowed in every state and why the industry looks so different across the country. These regulations are often part of a state's usury laws.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

A vending machine run with Anthropic's AI went out of business after it was convinced to give away items for free and sell a video game console.

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

Telehealth demand for GLP-1s for weight loss is booming as consumers seek easier access.

Warren Buffett's former professor Benjamin Graham is known as the 'father of value investing,' a strategy in which investors seek to buy stocks trading below their intrinsic worth.

The 1987 Nintendo video game 'Stadium Events' isn't known for being particularly fun, but its scarcity has made it a highly sought-after item that has sold for up to $35K at auction.

Netflix profits when you're not watching, and its movies are designed that way—read a detail-rich critical essay exposing lesser-known Netflix takes

See this overview of the firework rules across all 50 states, ranging from a complete ban on non-professional fireworks in Massachusetts to states with more lax rules like Indiana.

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

Clever Hans was a 1900s horse that was believed to be able to solve math equations, tell time, and read and comprehend German, until a psychology student discovered how he got his answers.

Art theft is the third-largest source of criminal revenues worldwide, thanks in part to the subjective nature of valuing a work of art.

Long before Major League Baseball began allowing instant replay for balls and strikes, an umpire reluctantly used the technology to determine whether a hit was a home run, a move that inadvertently ushered in a new era for the sport.

A 2019 Facebook event called on attendees to "Storm Area 51, They Can't Stop All of Us," resulting in countless memes, the creation of a music festival, and eventually the arrests of those who did try to approach the area.

The use of fungi to detoxify land and water—a process known as mycoremediation—has been used to clean up natural resources affected by the 2025 California wildfires.

In 2009, the nation was gripped by the story of a missing young boy who was believed to be floating over Colorado in a homemade balloon, until it was revealed that he was at home the whole time.

'Saturday Night Fever,' the 1977 film that introduced disco to the mainstream, was based on a fabricated magazine story.

The story of Dollree Mapp, whose legal challenge over her 1957 conviction for possessing "obscene material" led to a major strengthening of the Fourth Amendment

The idea for the Federal Reserve was conceived in secret in 1910—with bankers donning duck hunt gear for disguise while traveling to a remote country club on Georgia's Jekyll Island

A Yale student wrote a profound essay about the consulting industry's influence on elite college students that was published in a book of her writing after she died in a post-graduation car accident.

Despite being favored by 87% of Americans, Congress does not have term limits.

Browse a detailed visual analysis of over 200,000 similes—comparisons that often use 'like' or 'as'—from popular fiction to see how frequently writers the same idiomatic expressions.

How fusion—which releases energy when two lighter atoms combine to form a heavier atom—differs from fission

Human-to-human transmission of hantavirus remains extremely rare, so the 2026 hantavirus cruise ship outbreak doesn't mean we're facing a COVID-style pandemic risk.

Recent research found that the brain doesn't seem to massively rewire following amputation—upending earlier beliefs about the cause of phantom limb pain.