The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

Kalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the US

Two migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream.

Modern prediction markets started in Iowa in 1988

The University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets were introduced during the 1988 US presidential election. The beginning of their origin story almost sounds like a joke: Three economists walked into a bar.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Latest polls on the 2024 Presidential election

The latest polls for the 2024 Presidential Election. Updated daily, includes state and national polls for every matchup, including Biden, Harris, Trump, and DeSantis.

The 2020 and 2024 elections ranked among the highest-turnout contests in over a century

Voter turnout reached 66% in 2020—the highest since 1908—and 64% in 2024, tied for second-highest with 1960. In 2024, Trump benefited from higher turnout among his prior voters and new voters.

See the results of all 59 presidential elections from 1789 to 2024

This interactive tool lets users explore the outcomes of every US presidential election from George Washington's uncontested 1789 victory through 2024, showing how electoral votes, state results, and shifting coalitions shaped each race.

The FBI once raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home

In 2024, after Polymarket markets favored what turned out to be the winning outcome of the US presidential election, agents raided Coplan's New York City apartment. Coplan, who was only 26 years old at the time, was home during the raid and turned over his devices to authorities.

'The Simpsons' has a knack for inadvertently predicting the future

Some have noted that "The Simpsons" has accurately anticipated a number of events years before they happened, including the election of President Donald Trump, Disney buying 21st Century Fox, and Siegfried and Roy's tiger attack. This list breaks down some of the show's most uncanny inadvertent predictions.

The 16th-century astrologer Nostradamus' predictions for 2024

Nostradamus has been credited with predicting several major historical events over the years, but what does he think is in store for 2024? Read up on what his mysterious 1555 book, The Propheties, hints at for the upcoming year.

Palantir's executives have become increasingly involved in American politics in recent years

Palantir's government contracts have steadily increased since Donald Trump was re-elected in 2024, moving from intelligence and defense to public health and assisting in Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency efforts.

Exciting US primary debate moments from history

Presidential debates in the US are highly-touted events viewed as the capstone of a campaign, but their impact on the overall polling is often undetectable. Nonetheless, the televised events can be really entertaining as candidates sweat under the pressure of a live mass audience, and most morning after news round-ups contain some of the event's notable—or cringey—moments. Here's a quick, three-minute video of highlights of some of the more fascinating moments from US primaries.

Tesla short sellers benefited from the company's poor performance in 2025

Tesla was widely considered the most-shorted stock until 2024, despite consistent short-seller losses. Between 2016 and 2020, short sellers reportedly lost more than $11B as Tesla's stock price continued climbing. However, long-held short positions began paying out in 2025 as Musk's foray into politics and his eventual feud with President Trump hurt Tesla's stock performance. In 2025, Tesla short sellers made more than $10B.

The SEC recently approved bitcoin ETFs in landmark investing decision

In January 2024, the US Securities and Exchange Commission made history when it decided to allow fund issuers to launch bitcoin ETFs. This new class of exchange-traded fund tracks spot bitcoin prices, essentially allowing investors to hold bitcoin without actually having to buy the crypto.

Trump has extended TikTok's sale deadline three times

In 2024, US lawmakers passed a requirement for parent company ByteDance Ltd. to sell TikTok or face a ban in the country, which the company challenged in court. In early 2025, the law took effect, though President Trump paused it three separate times, affording the company more time to sell.

Experts predict Republicans will gain seats from mid-decade redistricting in 2026

Analysts expect GOP-led states to net seats through mid-decade redistricting, while Democratic states face greater hurdles due to commissions and legal limits—tilting the likely outcome toward Republican gains in 2026.

In 2024, US private equity posted an 8.1% return

Tracked by Cambridge Associates, 2024 performance saw limited partner distributions overtake contributions for the first time in years. Cambridge Associates, a leader in the space, typically uses a 2.0x+ MOIC (Multiple on Invested Capital) as a benchmark for top-quartile PE fund success.

'Planet Money' debates the financial indicators that defined 2025

In this end-of-year episode, "Planet Money" stages a playful debate over which economic indicators best captured the chaos of 2025—from tariffs to AI bubbles—and which signals may matter most as the US economy heads into 2026.

Many scholars consider the first commercial radio broadcast to be during the 1920 presidential election

On Nov. 2, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, station KDKA broadcast the results of the presidential election. Leo Rosenberg delivered the news that Warren Harding had won in a landslide to an audience of around 100 people.

In 2024, deepfake audio of London Mayor Sadiq Khan nearly caused real-world disorder

The audio included incendiary remarks related to the ongoing Palestinian protests and played on the public's preexisting political biases. The technology has since destabilized the concept of truth in elections, where politicians blame the use of real gaffes on AI and deepfakes to spread misinformation.

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission allowed unlimited independent spending in US elections

The 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowed corporations and other outside groups to spend unlimited money on elections independently of candidates—while leaving direct contribution limits intact—expanding the role of wealthy donors and outside influence in American political campaigns.

Three AI startup founders broke the record for the youngest self-made billionaire previously set by Mark Zuckerberg

Mark Zuckerberg became the youngest self-made billionaire in 2006 at 23 years old when Facebook held its initial public offering. In January of 2026, three AI startup founders—Brendan Foody, Adarsh Hiremath, and Surya Midha—broke Zuckerberg's record and became billionaires at 22 years old.

Budweiser temporarily changed its name to ‘America’ in 2016

In the run-up to the 2016 United States Presidential Election, Budweiser changed its name as part of a marketing campaign that ran from the end of May through the November election itself.

Spectacular shots of 2022's Blood Moon eclipse

A total lunar eclipse took place early Tuesday on Election Day. This occurs when the moon and the sun are on exact opposite sides of Earth, NASA says. See photos of the event here.

In 2025, four executives from large tech companies were given positions in the US Army Reserves—including Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar, which reinforced Palantir's ties with the US military and its role as a leading defense partner.

While the first exchange-traded fund (a 'basket' of different assets that can be bought and sold on a stock exchange) in the US only launched in 1993, the global ETF market has grown to more than $10T in the short time since.

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

11 people died from firework injuries in the US in 2024.

This site reaches millions of visitors who are tired of AI chatbots and seeking human connection. Pretend to be an AI chatbot and ask questions, provide answers, and draw for people in real time.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

A 2019 Facebook event called on attendees to "Storm Area 51, They Can't Stop All of Us," resulting in countless memes, the creation of a music festival, and eventually the arrests of those who did try to approach the area.

Jimmy Carter signed a 1978 bill that legalized home brewing, a move credited with kick-starting the craft beer industry.

Despite being favored by 87% of Americans, Congress does not have term limits.

The USPS spent $3.97B in 2024, accounting for .058% of the federal budget.

In 2026, Finland was named the world's happiest country for the ninth consecutive year based on its wealth, social safety network, and high life expectancy, among other factors.

Long before Major League Baseball began allowing instant replay for balls and strikes, an umpire reluctantly used the technology to determine whether a hit was a home run, a move that inadvertently ushered in a new era for the sport.

Abraham Lincoln was almost assassinated weeks before his inauguration as he traveled from Illinois to DC through Baltimore in 1861; it took two independent claims for Lincoln to be convinced the threat was real

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

In 2019, a laptop loaded with six of the worst malware in history and described as 'an exhibit of historical weaponry' sold for $1.3M.

Before the current East Wing ballroom project, only two White House renovations in the past 100 years cost more than $10M.

In 2009, the nation was gripped by the story of a missing young boy who was believed to be floating over Colorado in a homemade balloon, until it was revealed that he was at home the whole time.

Brandi Chastain, the star of the 1999 US victory over China in the 1999 Women's World Cup, was a last-second choice to take the penalty kick that sealed the victory.

See a ranking of the best (and worst) Federal Reserve Chairs since 1914 out of the 16 men and women who have held the office since.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

According to the physics of black holes, our 4D reality may be a hologram—a projection of information coded on a 2D surface on the edge of the universe.

The 2026 Ebola outbreak in the DRC is spurring new Ebola vaccine development for the Bundibugyo species.

Watch contemporary footage covering the US-backed Shah of Iran fleeing the country in the face of the 1979 Iranian Revolution

Domino's Pizza's 30-minute delivery guarantee was responsible for the chain's 1980s surge, but it was discontinued after the company was found liable for delivery driver accidents.

The hormonal disorder PCOS was renamed PMOS in 2026, a move designed to improve care and research by shifting the focus to the hormonal causes of this condition that affects 1 in 8 women.