Modern prediction markets started in Iowa in 1988

The 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction markets

Founded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye.

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes

On prediction markets, bettors bid up or down the price of contracts based on what they expect an event's outcome to be. Bettors bid up prices when they think an event is more likely to occur than the current contract price shows, so they buy the contracts, pushing the price higher. They bid down prices by selling these contracts when they believe an event is less likely to occur, driving the price down due to supply and demand.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

Vitalik Buterin’s current thoughts on Ethereum

Vitalik Buterin isn’t just the founder of Ethereum—he’s also a blogger. In this blog post from late last year, Buterin discusses some of his favorite applications built on Ethereum: prediction markets like Polymarket, where users can bet crypto on the outcome of events like elections. Buterin argues that prediction markets also act as news sites for non-bettors, opening the floodgates for many different kinds of info-based apps on Ethereum. Read the post here.

The history of March Madness brackets

Every spring, millions of Americans fill out their March Madness brackets in hopes of picking the winner. But where did this annual tradition start? This CBS News article tells the story of how a bar in Staten Island started a $10 pool with 88 participants in 1977, and grew it into a $1.5 million contest that ended up getting shut down by the IRS.

AI expert shows the cyclical nature of AI hype—in 1988

Rodney Brooks wrote several decades ago about the boom and bust cycles of artificial intelligence. Starting from the 1950s excitement over ENIAC's multiplication through the second launch of then-novel neural networks, Brooks suggests AI progresses incrementally despite the hype.

How George Gallup changed political polling forever

Straw polls had been used in the 19th century, but it wasn't until George Gallup's use of random sampling in 1936 that the art became a science.

Crypto's origins date back to 1983

While crypto feels new, it actually dates to 1983, with eCash's creation. However, a lot has happened in the crypto world over the past few years in particular—crypto's market cap surpassed $2T for the first time in 2021, for instance. A timeline of crypto's history details the events in between.

Dow Theory laid the groundwork for modern market analysis

Developed by Charles Dow in the late 19th century, Dow Theory argued that markets move in trends. Its principles—confirmation, trends and volume—still influence technical analysis today.

VisiCalc was the first electronic spreadsheet, released with Apple II's personal computer in 1979

Before 1979, managers were essentially information processors working off paper ledgers. Scenario modeling was slow, manual, and expensive. Companies were understood as organizations that built things with financial analysis as secondary. VisiCalc made calculation so cheap that you could work iteratively, setting out forecasts and tweaking assumptions until you got the answer you wanted. Oks argues It created a new way of seeing the world.

Mutual funds were first created and sold in the US in 1924

Mutual funds were created in 1924, became popular in the '80s and '90s when investors saw a better payoff. Since then, they’ve evolved to be one of the most popular investment options today.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

Modern presidential primaries now span months before conventions formalize nominees

In 2020, the major parties selected nominees through 64 primary and caucus contests held over 22 days. Until the 1960s, most nominees were chosen by party leaders at conventions rather than through widespread primaries.

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

'The Great Onion Corner:' Hear how short-selling onions ended with a ban on onion futures

In the early 1950s, onion farmer and produce trader Vince Kosuga cornered the onion market, resulting in a 1958 ban on onion futures from Congress. After stockpiling onions and buying onion futures, Kosuga then began shorting them. Then, he released his accumulated surplus of onions, driving the price down to essentially zero, and cashed in his short positions.

While the first exchange-traded fund (a 'basket' of different assets that can be bought and sold on a stock exchange) in the US only launched in 1993, the global ETF market has grown to more than $10T in the short time since.

In Iowa, Flannery O'Connor decided to pursue creative writing

O’Connor enrolled in a master’s program in journalism at the University of Iowa, intending to pursue political cartooning, but quickly switched to creative writing. Her thesis was a collection of stories called “The Geranium.” The title story was eventually her first published piece.

A 'Simpsons' writer on the show's inadvertent predictions

Some have noted that "The Simpsons" has accurately anticipated a number of events years before they happened. In this interview, showrunner Al Jean explains how these unintentional predictions came about and why he believes the events were not so much visions of the future as educated guesses.

Memes emerged in the 1980s and 1990s

Today's Internet users might think of memes as references spread online through images, videos, and audio clips. But the merger between memes and the internet didn't happen until the 1980s and 1990s—years after the term meme was first coined to describe a different phenomenon.

The world's oldest stock exchange was called the Amsterdam Stock Exchange

What is now referred to as Euronext Amsterdam got its start centuries ago, in the early 1600s. Back then, it was called the Amsterdam Stock Exchange—and it might not have existed without the Dutch East India Co.'s desire to raise funding for its seafaring ventures.

The number of publicly traded companies has decreased in recent years

In 1996, more than 7,300 companies traded publicly on US stock markets, but that number has recently dropped to 4,300. Economists point to two reasons: First, going public requires full disclosure of operations, exposing it to scrutiny from investors, competitors, and analysts. Second, the IPO process is expensive and time-consuming.

Cyrus McCormick invented the mechanical reaper—and a territory-based sales force

In the 1830s, farmers were skeptical of new technology, so McCormick demonstrated the machine—described as a cross between a plow, a chariot, and a flying object—to prospective buyers. Long before modern sales norms existed, he divided the market into territories operated by agents who provided service on the machines, financing to expand the customer base, and product iteration based on feedback from regional agents.

An initial public offering or 'IPO' is the process of a private company becoming public by putting shares of the company on the stock market for purchase.

Joel Mokyr won the 2025 Economics Nobel as a historian of scientific ideas

Many Nobel Prizes for Economics go to economists for their sophisticated quantification and large-scale studies and surveys. And while Northwestern's Mokyr has conducted such studies, his published works are more traditional history, where he argues for the significance of ideas to the development of material economics.

The first fantasy football league began in Oakland, California

Winkenbach organized the Greater Oakland Professional Pigskin Prognosticators League, the first fantasy football league. The game allowed team owners to draft players from both the NFL and the AFL, then separate leagues, and create an impossibly epic roster.

An oral history of the 1969 moon landing

Twelve Central Illinois residents are asked to share their thoughts on where they were when the first people landed on the Moon. This almost one-hour program is a collaboration of Eastern Illinois University's Booth Library, the EIU Department of History, and WEIU, and it premiered at EIU's Booth Library, January 24, 2019.

The name 'Silicon Valley' arose from the founding of Shockley Semiconductor Laboratory in Fairchild Semiconductor in 1956-57, founded near Stanford University in Palo Alto

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The idea for the Federal Reserve was conceived in secret in 1910—with bankers donning duck hunt gear for disguise while traveling to a remote country club on Georgia's Jekyll Island

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

Exploring the Larry Bird punch that almost changed March Madness

Budweiser stores yeast derived from the original 1800s strain in a secret bunker, which only the Head of Yeast Management can access—not even the CEO

A vending machine run with Anthropic's AI went out of business after it was convinced to give away items for free and sell a video game console.

A 2019 Facebook event called on attendees to "Storm Area 51, They Can't Stop All of Us," resulting in countless memes, the creation of a music festival, and eventually the arrests of those who did try to approach the area.

Despite being favored by 87% of Americans, Congress does not have term limits.

View the ten deadliest tornadoes in US history.

Warren Buffett's former professor Benjamin Graham is known as the 'father of value investing,' a strategy in which investors seek to buy stocks trading below their intrinsic worth.

Sears sold DIY house kits starting at $600 in its famous catalog from 1908 through the 1940s, resulting in roughly 10,000 'Sears and Roebuck houses' being built.

See the evolution of Ebola vaccine and treatment development.

The United States has had a tumultuous relationship with Cuba since its 1959 revolution, highlighted by a nuclear crisis and a decades-long trade embargo.

Abraham Lincoln was almost assassinated weeks before his inauguration as he traveled from Illinois to DC through Baltimore in 1861; it took two independent claims for Lincoln to be convinced the threat was real

Explore an interactive map built from more than 100,000 survey responses on where people find joy in their lives

'Shogun,' a 1980s TV series, helped popularize sushi in the US by stimulating an American interest in Japanese culture.

The first horror movie is believed to be George Méliès' 1986 short 'The Haunted Castle,' which pioneered the use of special effects

Watch contemporary footage covering the US-backed Shah of Iran fleeing the country in the face of the 1979 Iranian Revolution

The term 'algorithm' originated from the Latinized name of al-Khwārizmī, a 9th-century mathematician whose works introduced Arabic numerals and the decimal-based numeral system to Europe and whose treatise 'Al-Jabr' gave algebra its name.

About 2,000 US babies are born annually without some portion of their limbs, potentially leading to a lifetime of pricey prosthetics.

Crows are believed to have intelligence on par with a seven-year-old child and demonstrate complex behaviors, from problem-solving with tools to recognizing human faces.

Graffiti dates back to at least ancient Pompeii, where citizens scrawled messages to one another on public walls