How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes

On prediction markets, bettors bid up or down the price of contracts based on what they expect an event's outcome to be. Bettors bid up prices when they think an event is more likely to occur than the current contract price shows, so they buy the contracts, pushing the price higher. They bid down prices by selling these contracts when they believe an event is less likely to occur, driving the price down due to supply and demand.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Find out the difference between prediction markets, sports betting, and investing

As one expert put it, "investing is a long-term strategy to build wealth over time, speculation is an attempt to predict the future, and gambling is a game of luck."

Prediction markets have faced questions about insider trading

While prediction markets encourage bettors to use their knowledge of a situation to inform their trades, these platforms have faced questions about when this borders on insider trading. For instance, traders on Kalshi can bet on who Taylor Swift's bridesmaids will be—but some worry that it would be unfair for Taylor Swift herself to earn money on that specific bet.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

The CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalry

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform."

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

Modern prediction markets started in Iowa in 1988

The University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets were introduced during the 1988 US presidential election. The beginning of their origin story almost sounds like a joke: Three economists walked into a bar.

How math whizzes exploit sportsbooks

Chris Dirkus is a professional sports bettor who approaches the hobby as a math problem, not from a fan's perspective. He focuses on mispriced odds in popular games where many fans are betting for high liquidity. He's one of a rare segment of sports bettors exploiting slow models and human mistakes.

Sports media have also embraced sports betting

For decades, ESPN kept its distance between reporting on games and talking about gambling lines. Sports teams refused to have franchises in Las Vegas, fearing it would harm the sport. But since 2018, that has changed. ESPN’s personalities regularly pick games, and the company has also launched its own betting app.

Spot markets are where commodities intended for relatively immediate delivery are traded

Spot markets are where physical securities are exchanged for cash. Also known as cash markets or physical markets, the trades are relatively immediate—both parties agree to an immediate transfer. Currencies and securities can also be traded on spot markets.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.

'Daily fantasy' is a high-stakes subset of fantasy sports

The form, pioneered by platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings, uses anonymous daily leagues and large payouts, looks more like typical betting than the season-long, community-minded setup of more traditional fantasy.

When compared to stocks and bonds, alternative investments are often less regulated

Alternative investments are also often less liquid than traditional investments; they carry unique risk, return, and tax considerations.

How much does sports betting generate?

According to 2025 data, sports betting generated $2.7B in state tax revenue. That number has increased every year since the government began collecting data in 2021.

Why does the stock market matter?

Open any newspaper, turn on your local TV news station, or listen to a daily business radio segment, and you’re bound to hear about how the stock market is performing. Netflix created a 17-minute (free) explainer that dives deep into the nitty-gritty of how we got here.

The similarities and differences between bitcoin and ethereum

Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap behind Bitcoin. Usually, that comparison just scratches the surface of the overall market cap. Instead, a visual pits the tokens up against each other on a per-token basis and shows how and why the Ethereum/bitcoin ratio has fluctuated over time.

The difference between marketing and advertising: Advertising is technically a type of marketing

While the terms are often used interchangeably, technically speaking, marketing is any effort to promote a product or service. Advertising, on the other hand, is any paid effort to promote a product or service. Learn more about the difference in this article.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Read about different levels of price discrimination

Price discrimination is a business practice in which different customers are charged different prices for the same product or service. It's one way for a business to boost profits and take advantage of its market position. There are three levels of price discrimination, differentiated by the consumers targeted and the reasons for discrimination.

Leagues like the Premier League differ from the World Cup

The Premier League and other similar club leagues are professional organizations like the NFL or the NBA, where owners purchase player contracts. World Cup teams, on the other hand, are organized by citizenship.

Federal law requires payday lenders to meet certain transparency requirements, but states have their own regulations

Federal law treats payday lending like other lines of credit, meaning it requires lenders to disclose the loan's interest rate and its "finance charge," a dollar amount expressing the full cost of the loan. But states have their own regulations around payday lending, hence why it isn't allowed in every state and why the industry looks so different across the country. These regulations are often part of a state's usury laws.

What are business credit scores?

Businesses have credit scores the same way individuals do—with a few key differences. For one thing, business credit scores range from 0 to 100 instead of 300 to 850, and are based on factors such as bankruptcy and bill-paying habits.

Marketplaces on the dark web provide eBay-like vendor feedback scores

An HP analysis found that 77% of cybercriminal marketplaces require vendors to purchase a license to sell their products, which can cost up to $3,000. About 92% of these marketplaces also use a third-party dispute-resolution service to handle customer service issues, thereby promoting "honor among thieves."

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Art theft is the third-largest source of criminal revenues worldwide, thanks in part to the subjective nature of valuing a work of art.

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

Netflix profits when you're not watching, and its movies are designed that way—read a detail-rich critical essay exposing lesser-known Netflix takes

The 1987 Nintendo video game 'Stadium Events' isn't known for being particularly fun, but its scarcity has made it a highly sought-after item that has sold for up to $35K at auction.

This site reaches millions of visitors who are tired of AI chatbots and seeking human connection. Pretend to be an AI chatbot and ask questions, provide answers, and draw for people in real time.

See this overview of the firework rules across all 50 states, ranging from a complete ban on non-professional fireworks in Massachusetts to states with more lax rules like Indiana.

Some coin denominations have ridges etched on their sides, partly to prevent counterfeiting, in a practice called 'reeding.'

Long before Major League Baseball began allowing instant replay for balls and strikes, an umpire reluctantly used the technology to determine whether a hit was a home run, a move that inadvertently ushered in a new era for the sport.

Browse a detailed visual analysis of over 200,000 similes—comparisons that often use 'like' or 'as'—from popular fiction to see how frequently writers the same idiomatic expressions.

Play the role of a student in a game where you try to navigate college and remain debt-free, selecting different income levels, high school experience, race, ethnicity, and more.

Some renewable energy sources may weaken the resiliency of electric grids by removing outage buffers provided by coal- and natural gas-fired plants, which provide the system with more time to find a new power source if a plant goes down.

The price of gas is a composite made up of several different factors, with the federal gas tax making up less than 20% of what drivers pay at the pump.

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

Recent research found that the brain doesn't seem to massively rewire following amputation—upending earlier beliefs about the cause of phantom limb pain.

Power lines are dotted with large, brightly colored balls to improve the visibility of these thin wires to helicopters and small planes and help prevent potential crashes.

Doctors differentiate between a phobia and fear by asking patients whether their fear interferes with their day-to-day activities.

Clever Hans was a 1900s horse that was believed to be able to solve math equations, tell time, and read and comprehend German, until a psychology student discovered how he got his answers.

Corals are themselves not coral reefs—the term refers to the tiny marine invertebrates that build the rigid reef.

The Great Salt Lake's distinct dual coloration results from high-salinity organisms that only live in the northern portion and produce a purple protein.

Mark Twain spent decades feuding with the US Postal Service, convinced its costs and regulations were bureaucratic overreach.

The hormonal disorder PCOS was renamed PMOS in 2026, a move designed to improve care and research by shifting the focus to the hormonal causes of this condition that affects 1 in 8 women.

See the evolution of Ebola vaccine and treatment development.