Prediction markets have faced questions about insider trading

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

Insider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information

"Material, nonpublic" information is essentially any undisclosed information that could have a substantial impact on an investor's decision to trade a security. While the practice is strictly prohibited on the stock market, it's now being discussed regarding less-regulated but increasingly popular prediction markets.

Prediction market Kalshi's cofounders are former Wall Street traders

Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has described prediction markets as similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes

On prediction markets, bettors bid up or down the price of contracts based on what they expect an event's outcome to be. Bettors bid up prices when they think an event is more likely to occur than the current contract price shows, so they buy the contracts, pushing the price higher. They bid down prices by selling these contracts when they believe an event is less likely to occur, driving the price down due to supply and demand.

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Some experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addiction

An addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry.

Donald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction market

Named "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family.

Sports leagues have attempted to prevent athletes from betting

As pro and collegiate sports embrace betting (and the revenue that comes with it), each league works diligently to ensure the integrity of the games by hiring private firms to analyze irregular bets. These companies have flagged bets that led to the firing of Alabama’s baseball coach, the suspension of multiple athletes at Iowa and Iowa State, and, most recently, a lifetime ban on former Toronto Raptors forward Jontay Porter by the NBA in April 2024.

Prediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slang

For instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality.

Hear why some experts and investors think short selling keeps the market healthy

Despite criticism that short selling incentivizes downturns in the market, many experts and investors say that short selling is a critical aspect of price discovery and market efficiency. These experts and investors say that short sellers help detect fraud and prevent stocks from becoming overvalued.

Play a game that reveals if investors with a crystal ball make better trades

The "crystal ball" game reveals how well you would do trading stocks and bonds if you could see the front page of the Wall Street Journal one day in advance.

Breaking down the jargon and strategy of horse betting

Placing bets on horse racing isn't the same as a football or basketball game. You can pick a winner (win), who will come in second (place), and even third (show). And all the bets placed on a race are pooled together and divided among the winners. This Top Ten Picks video teaches the mechanics behind each bet, and shares insider tips that can lead to more informed betting choices.

While day trading has risen in popularity in recent years, the SEC warns it is a speculative strategy that can cause big losses

A day trader is anyone who buys and sells a stock within the same trading day. They quickly move in and out of the market to try and profit. Some day traders are professionals, while others are retail investors.

Smart pricing algorithms can unintentionally work together to raise prices

Researchers have found that, through trial and error, algorithms designed to adjust prices based on market data can learn to mimic price-fixing tactics, even without explicit programming to do so. Over time, they "learn" that it is more profitable to avoid price wars and keep prices high when competitors lower prices.

Several major artists have embraced manipulating the Billboard charts

Billboard is supposed to be an accurate, objective representation of the country’s listening habits, but artists and their fans have discovered ways to manipulate the magazine’s methodology in order to push tracks to the top of the charts. In 2018, Taylor Swift rewarded fans for purchasing her album multiple times; in 2020, Justin Bieber reposted suggestions that fans repeatedly stream one of his songs while they sleep.

Read about the National Labor Relations Board case against Bridgewater Associates

In 2016, The New York Times reported about sexual harassment claims at the hedge fund, which uncovered a large-scale case from the National Labor Relations Board over Bridgewater's employees' contracts. The NLRB challenged their intense confidentiality agreements, but the settlement was ironically deemed confidential.

Some attorneys are using true crime fans to their advantage

True crime fans are notorious for falling down rabbit holes. Now that passionate interest is being exploited by attorneys marshaling influencers to serve as informal public relations representatives, a trend that's blurring the lines between fan theories and reality.

Taylor Swift owns more than 300 trademarks—a strategic way she protects her brand

Taylor Swift holds trademarks ranging from her album titles and song lyrics to the names of her cats. While the sheer amount of trademarks may seem excessive, it's one way Taylor Swift can protect the integrity of her brand and make sure everything that's branded as Taylor Swift actually comes from her.

Silicon Valley startups Orchid, Nucleus, and Genomic Prediction are selling so-called polygenic tests for prospective parents

These tests claim to show how at-risk a hypothetical baby would be for genetic syndromes. The newfound industry has prompted ethical and medical debates, with critics questioning their accuracy and highlighting the potential problems behind pursuing the perfect baby.

Borrowers were increasingly defaulting on private credit loans as of early 2026

Risks in private credit investing include the industry's lack of transparency and the ability of businesses to borrow more than a bank might allow against their debt. Some borrowers in early 2026, for instance, likely did not expect interest rates to be so high for so long, which could be contributing to an uptick in defaults.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

The impact of knowing your coworker’s salary

In 2025, five more states enacted pay transparency laws, requiring employers to disclose salaries in job postings. The goal? Reduce wage gaps and promote fairness. But despite these laws, 42% of job listings still hide pay details.

Peloton's success is partly due to users' relationships with instructors

Despite Peloton's online model, most users feel a deep connection with the instructors and have created community groups around their shared identities (like being a mom or a lawyer). The relationship users have with their instructors has fueled consistent engagement and paved the way for instructors to take on personal brand deals. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

Clever Hans was a 1900s horse that was believed to be able to solve math equations, tell time, and read and comprehend German, until a psychology student discovered how he got his answers.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Warren Buffett's former professor Benjamin Graham is known as the 'father of value investing,' a strategy in which investors seek to buy stocks trading below their intrinsic worth.

Netflix profits when you're not watching, and its movies are designed that way—read a detail-rich critical essay exposing lesser-known Netflix takes

This site reaches millions of visitors who are tired of AI chatbots and seeking human connection. Pretend to be an AI chatbot and ask questions, provide answers, and draw for people in real time.

Art theft is the third-largest source of criminal revenues worldwide, thanks in part to the subjective nature of valuing a work of art.

A Yale student wrote a profound essay about the consulting industry's influence on elite college students that was published in a book of her writing after she died in a post-graduation car accident.

The Nasdaq's 'Magnificent 7' companies are responsible for roughly 40% of the Nasdaq 100 index's gains, while the remaining 93 companies account for the other 60%.

In 2025, four executives from large tech companies were given positions in the US Army Reserves—including Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar, which reinforced Palantir's ties with the US military and its role as a leading defense partner.

The 1987 Nintendo video game 'Stadium Events' isn't known for being particularly fun, but its scarcity has made it a highly sought-after item that has sold for up to $35K at auction.

Up to a million Girl Scouts sell about 200 million cookie boxes every spring, generating $800 million, largely because refusing a child is frowned upon

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

Prince's sexually explicit 1984 track 'Darling Nikki' attracted the ire of the Parents Music Resource Center, an advocacy group that inspired the Parental Advisory sticker, even though the song ends with a Christian message.

Browse a detailed visual analysis of over 200,000 similes—comparisons that often use 'like' or 'as'—from popular fiction to see how frequently writers the same idiomatic expressions.

Brandi Chastain, the star of the 1999 US victory over China in the 1999 Women's World Cup, was a last-second choice to take the penalty kick that sealed the victory.

Fast-casual restaurant Chili's is experiencing a resurgence, with its parent company recently reporting a nearly 32% increase in sales, thanks to passionate Gen Z fans on TikTok.

A 2019 Facebook event called on attendees to "Storm Area 51, They Can't Stop All of Us," resulting in countless memes, the creation of a music festival, and eventually the arrests of those who did try to approach the area.

When caught in the mouths of cardinal fish, seed shrimp release glowing, bioluminescent chemicals, which alert predators of the cardinal fish, prompting the shrimp's ejection.

Watch how viruses like Ebola can spill over from animals to humans—and vice-versa.

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

Abraham Lincoln was almost assassinated weeks before his inauguration as he traveled from Illinois to DC through Baltimore in 1861; it took two independent claims for Lincoln to be convinced the threat was real

See this overview of the firework rules across all 50 states, ranging from a complete ban on non-professional fireworks in Massachusetts to states with more lax rules like Indiana.

The hormonal disorder PCOS was renamed PMOS in 2026, a move designed to improve care and research by shifting the focus to the hormonal causes of this condition that affects 1 in 8 women.