Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes

On prediction markets, bettors bid up or down the price of contracts based on what they expect an event's outcome to be. Bettors bid up prices when they think an event is more likely to occur than the current contract price shows, so they buy the contracts, pushing the price higher. They bid down prices by selling these contracts when they believe an event is less likely to occur, driving the price down due to supply and demand.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Prediction markets have faced questions about insider trading

While prediction markets encourage bettors to use their knowledge of a situation to inform their trades, these platforms have faced questions about when this borders on insider trading. For instance, traders on Kalshi can bet on who Taylor Swift's bridesmaids will be—but some worry that it would be unfair for Taylor Swift herself to earn money on that specific bet.

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

Kalshi announced a partnership with CNN in 2025

The partnership included an integration of Kalshi's prediction markets data across CNN's network programming. For instance, certain TV segments on CNN could show a scrolling banner detailing the odds of event contracts on the exchange.

Futures contracts are the primary way commodities are bought and sold

Selling futures contracts protects both parties from future fluctuations in pricing. It allows sellers of commodities to lock in some of their output, even if prices fall. Traders can eliminate some of the volatility inherent in commodities trading via these contracts.

Insider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information

"Material, nonpublic" information is essentially any undisclosed information that could have a substantial impact on an investor's decision to trade a security. While the practice is strictly prohibited on the stock market, it's now being discussed regarding less-regulated but increasingly popular prediction markets.

It's tough to measure just how much the global commodities market is worth

That's partly because of all the different ways and places commodities are traded—such as futures exchanges, spot markets, and over-the-counter deals. Additionally, the same commodity can be traded multiple times in different markets, making it easy to risk duplicating trade values in calculations.

How NFL teams mistake the values of their draft picks

The NFL draft is a highly anticipated event. Each spring football franchises take turns selecting roughly 250 players over seven rounds. Teams regularly trade draft picks to reach a certain player they expect to fall at their selection point, giving market analysts the ability to determine the value of those trades. This video explores the NFL draft market's inefficiency.

What are smart contracts?

Smart contracts are potentially one of the most useful tools associated with blockchain, and they can enable the transfer of everything from Bitcoin and fiat currency to goods transported around the world. Here’s what they do and why they’re likely to gain traction.

Call options 101

A call option is a contract that gives the option buyer the right to buy an underlying asset at a specified price within a specific time period. A call buyer profits when the underlying asset increases in price. Learn more about the financial contract and how you can use it in this article.

Carbon markets incentivize companies to cut emissions but require high carbon prices

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a cap-and-trade system issues a limited number of emissions permits—carbon credits—that decrease each year, cutting into a company's profits if it does not reduce emissions and must buy permits from others. However, cheap permits and minimal fines for lacking permits have reduced the system's effectiveness.

Tesla short sellers benefited from the company's poor performance in 2025

Tesla was widely considered the most-shorted stock until 2024, despite consistent short-seller losses. Between 2016 and 2020, short sellers reportedly lost more than $11B as Tesla's stock price continued climbing. However, long-held short positions began paying out in 2025 as Musk's foray into politics and his eventual feud with President Trump hurt Tesla's stock performance. In 2025, Tesla short sellers made more than $10B.

One estimate values concierge services at $38.9B by 2032

Data Horizons Research put the value of this global market at $18.9B in 2021, but anticipates massive growth by 2032, with North America comprising the majority of the market. Chronic health conditions, their analysis suggests, will be a contributing factor to this growth as medically complex individuals seek more personalized care.

The general public cannot buy Super Bowl tickets at face value

The NFL controls every Super Bowl ticket, distributing none through a general public sale; after allotments to teams, players, sponsors, and the league, only about 11,600 tickets—roughly 16%—are available to fans at face value, mostly via team lotteries.

Carried interest is a share of the profits that a venture capital firm’s general partners earn

Also known as "carry" for short, carried interest is roughly 20% of a fund’s returns, but the exact percentage varies between firms.

Peloton pays artists more for music than most streaming platforms

Since the on-demand classes are technically live performances, Peloton has to pay both for the rights to the song itself and for the right to actually play the song. As a result, Peloton pays more money than many other streaming platforms to use artists' music, with some reports saying Apple Music reportedly pays 0.1 cents per stream and Peloton pays 3.1 cents per stream.

Marketplaces on the dark web provide eBay-like vendor feedback scores

An HP analysis found that 77% of cybercriminal marketplaces require vendors to purchase a license to sell their products, which can cost up to $3,000. About 92% of these marketplaces also use a third-party dispute-resolution service to handle customer service issues, thereby promoting "honor among thieves."

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

What it means to call a bracket 'chalk'

If the tournament is rather boring, you might hear a curious word getting thrown around: "chalk." In short, it means that the favorites have been winning. The word's origins go back to horse racing and its sportsbooks, where bookies would post odds on chalkboards. Over time, the bookies came to be known as "chalk" and, years later, tournaments (and their brackets) that seemed to favor those bookies earned the name, too.

Insurance 'float' is money collected based on insurance’s pay now, collect later model

The insurance “float” has treated Warren Buffett well. The “float” has earned him, and Berkshire Hathaway, billions of dollars. This article includes a letter from Buffett to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 2009, discussing the impact of the “float” on his long-term success.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The rare, so-called 'assumable' mortgage is landing homebuyers a 3% rate

High interest rates in a competitive market are part of the reason some buyers struggle to close on homes. But this rare mortgage can help. Assumable mortgages allow buyers to take over the original mortgage from the seller, giving them a much lower interest rate.

Probability waves govern particles like electrons in the quantum space

Just as waves are extended objects whose heights change across space, quantum waves dictate that the probability of an object existing in different locations across space varies. Like water waves, the probability waves can combine, changing the heights—and therefore probabilities—in different locations.

The median trademark of public companies in the US is worth $22.5M

There are multiple approaches to evaluating the value of a trademark. Some strategies include analyzing the value of royalty payments a trademark produces and the cost of recreating the trademark or brand.

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

The price of gas is a composite made up of several different factors, with the federal gas tax making up less than 20% of what drivers pay at the pump.

Warren Buffett's former professor Benjamin Graham is known as the 'father of value investing,' a strategy in which investors seek to buy stocks trading below their intrinsic worth.

The 1987 Nintendo video game 'Stadium Events' isn't known for being particularly fun, but its scarcity has made it a highly sought-after item that has sold for up to $35K at auction.

Art theft is the third-largest source of criminal revenues worldwide, thanks in part to the subjective nature of valuing a work of art.

About 2,000 US babies are born annually without some portion of their limbs, potentially leading to a lifetime of pricey prosthetics.

US housing costs have risen by roughly 175% between 1991 and 2026—but a growing number of Gen Zers are becoming homeowners anyway. In 2025, 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before.

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

Use this calculator to find the dollar value of your mental load, from meal planning to coordinating after-school care for your children.

The most expensive ad of all time was for Chanel No. 5 perfume and cost roughly $33M to produce in 2004—about $57M in today's dollars.

Browse a detailed visual analysis of over 200,000 similes—comparisons that often use 'like' or 'as'—from popular fiction to see how frequently writers the same idiomatic expressions.

When you complete a CAPTCHA on a website to prove you are human, you may be unknowingly training algorithms for self-driving cars, whose systems require training data to help identify crosswalks, bicycles, and other outdoor objects.

Brandi Chastain, the star of the 1999 US victory over China in the 1999 Women's World Cup, was a last-second choice to take the penalty kick that sealed the victory.

Some coin denominations have ridges etched on their sides, partly to prevent counterfeiting, in a practice called 'reeding.'

Researchers believe the brain consolidates memories, processes emotions, and plans for the future during dream states

Domino's Pizza's 30-minute delivery guarantee was responsible for the chain's 1980s surge, but it was discontinued after the company was found liable for delivery driver accidents.

Despite being favored by 87% of Americans, Congress does not have term limits.

Most of the observable universe's volume consists of voids and supervoids—enormous regions of space with little to no galaxies, stars, or light.

The first steps to rebuilding your credit score include getting to know exactly what's on your credit report and figuring out how far you are from the '700 club,' or 'good score' range.

See this overview of the firework rules across all 50 states, ranging from a complete ban on non-professional fireworks in Massachusetts to states with more lax rules like Indiana.

How the most famous Ebola book, The Hot Zone, which sold 3.5 million copies and was translated into 30 languages, got aspects of the disease so wrong.

In 2026, Finland was named the world's happiest country for the ninth consecutive year based on its wealth, social safety network, and high life expectancy, among other factors.

When caught in the mouths of cardinal fish, seed shrimp release glowing, bioluminescent chemicals, which alert predators of the cardinal fish, prompting the shrimp's ejection.