The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

What is the cone of uncertainty?

In hurricane forecasting, the cone of uncertainty results from connecting a set of circles representing where a hurricane is expected to be at 12-hour intervals. The size of each circle is two-thirds of the historical forecast error over the previous five years.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

All hurricanes have a central eye where no extreme weather phenomena take place

When standing in the eye of a hurricane, you're likely to experience sunny, cloudless skies surrounded by a wall of intense winds and thunderstorms. The physics behind this formation is the same as what causes water to spiral around a hollow cone as it goes down a drain.

The way hurricanes are categorized may mislead the public to their dangers

The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed, but tropical cyclones' main dangers are storm surges and heavy rainfall. To better communicate risks to the public, a new system that incorporates hurricane size, water content, and other complexities should be developed.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

The risk of tornadoes and storm surges is greatest on the 'dirty side' of a hurricane

Winds in the right-front quadrant of the storm are amplified by the hurricane's motion and its rotation, which both move air in the same direction. Upon making landfall, these winds pull water from the Gulf and Atlantic onto land, creating storm surges. Tornadoes can also be generated from large differences in wind speed and direction at various heights.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

Small elevation differences drastically protect homes in hurricanes

The construction of seaside homes has long involved building residences on elevated stilts, but this feature adds costs—and some elevated homes still fail. Explore the engineering behind the ideal height of a hurricane-proof building.

Hurricanes may kill 300 times more people than officially reported

A recent study suggests that, since 1930, more than 3.5 million people have died due to hurricanes. This incorporates the long-term effects of storms on people's health and economic well-being, contributing to thousands of premature deaths each year.

Dust from the Sahel and Saharan regions makes northwest Africa a hurricane nursery

NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment—Cabo Verde studied the early stages of hurricane formation, identifying how dust interacts with clouds over the ocean to produce the rainy disturbances that become tropical cyclones.

Fast-changing conditions during their formation make tornado forecasting difficult

The final steps of tornadogenesis—the process of forming a tornado—depend on near-surface details, such as local geography, which are difficult for radar to observe and affect how funnel clouds make contact with the ground. Inconsistencies in storm behavior have limited the amount of advance warning people receive before tornadoes touch down.

As of 2025, the world's largest tropical cyclone spanned half the continental US

Typhoon Tip traveled across the western Pacific Ocean in 1979, achieving winds of 300 kilometers per hour. Though it weakened significantly before making landfall in Japan, its rainfall produced over 600 mudslides and killed 42 people.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Common mistakes we make about the world map

Maps have long loosely approximated what the world actually looks like. Here's a few common errors that persist due to outdated conceptions of the world.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

NASA monitors potentially hazardous asteroids and comets

Established in 2016, the Planetary Defense Coordination Office characterizes and tracks asteroids and comets passing within 30 million miles of Earth. Over 40,000 near-Earth asteroids have been discovered, although estimates suggest that about 14,000 more such objects remain to be found.

Earthquake early warning systems do not predict earthquakes

Systems like ShakeAlert® use a network of hundreds of ground sensors to detect earthquakes moments after they begin. Since seismic waves travel about 5 km/s, individuals may be notified of earthquakes before they feel the seismic activity has reached them.

Flood recurrence intervals are based on independent probabilities

The term "100-year flood" does not mean the event will only occur once every 100 years, but it has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. Soil saturation, watershed size, and urban development can impact flood severity.

Tracking the accuracy of past and future predictions of the apocalypyse

Religious figures, scientists, technologists and others have long heralded the ending of the world in what in some traditions is called the apocalypse. This site tracks those failed predictions in the past and charts those coming up in the future.

All rainbows are 'raincircles' caused by water droplets separating white sunlight into a spectrum of colors, but Earth's surface blocks the bottom half of the circle from our line of sight.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

The event horizon is an inescapable sphere around a black hole singularity

The horizon is often surrounded by an accretion disc of superheated material that orbits the black hole while emitting radiation. Light emitted behind a black hole can be bent around it to create the appearance of a ring of material known as a photon sphere.

Learn about the sun's corona, which is nonlethal despite a temperature of millions of degrees

The outermost layer of the sun's atmosphere is best seen during a solar eclipse, when the moon blocks the much brighter (and significantly cooler) solar surface. Despite the high-energy particles in the corona moving fast enough to escape the sun's gravity and gradually become solar wind, their density is too low to contribute meaningfully to the region's overall radiation.

How jet streams and US weather are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Jet streams are predominantly west-to-east air currents in the atmosphere that mark the boundary between cold polar air and warm tropical air, where cells of atmospheric circulation meet. By disrupting the location of these circulations on two- to seven-year cycles, ENSO alters the probability of droughts, floods, and above- or below-average temperatures across the US.

Explore interactive global maps of cancer prevalence

Cancer is a ubiquitous disease, with populations across the globe having incidence rates that reflect various risk factors. The Cancer Atlas lets users explore a comprehensive global overview of cancer statistics, including incidence, mortality, prevalence, and survival rates across various regions and Human Development Index categories.

Wind farms are targets for conspiracy theories due to their visibility and complexity

The proliferation of misinformation and conspiracy theories surrounding wind farms is driven by deep-seated anxieties about change, distrust of government, and resistance to confronting the complexities of modern energy solutions.

While the sun's gravity keeps the planets in orbit, their gravity also pulls on the sun, causing it and everything else in the solar system to orbit around a mutual balance point called the barycenter—the true center of the solar system.

This real-time tracking of the hantavirus cruise ship outbreak in May 2026 offers a unique glimpse into the global reach of the outbreak and whether the virus sickened passengers and their communities around the world.

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

Discover the catastrophic consequences of a failure of the US electrical grid—something that is more likely than many Americans think.

How the most famous Ebola book, The Hot Zone, which sold 3.5 million copies and was translated into 30 languages, got aspects of the disease so wrong.

Most of the observable universe's volume consists of voids and supervoids—enormous regions of space with little to no galaxies, stars, or light.

Waves off the coast of Nazaré, Portugal, can reach over 100 feet and are caused by the area's deep underwater canyon geography

Louisiana's 'Cancer Alley' is infamous for having some of the highest industrial pollution, toxic air emissions, and cancer risks in the US.

Explore an interactive map built from more than 100,000 survey responses on where people find joy in their lives

The deadliest aspect of volcanic eruptions is often not lava, but pyroclastic flows—avalanches of ash, gas, and rock that can move more than half the speed of sound.

Corals are themselves not coral reefs—the term refers to the tiny marine invertebrates that build the rigid reef.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Recent research found that the brain doesn't seem to massively rewire following amputation—upending earlier beliefs about the cause of phantom limb pain.

Objects can be 3D printed with light by projecting 2D computerized tomography (CT) scans onto rotating cylinders of resin, which solidify upon exposure.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is independent of Iran's regular army and is one of the most powerful and influential military-political organizations in the Middle East.

Fear or disgust related to clusters of holes and cracks, called trypophobia, may stem from evolutionary processes to help us avoid pathogens.

The syncytiotrophoblast is the outer layer of the placenta and the largest human cell, spanning an area about twice that of a king-sized bedsheet.

See this overview of the firework rules across all 50 states, ranging from a complete ban on non-professional fireworks in Massachusetts to states with more lax rules like Indiana.

Sunflowers have long been a symbol of nuclear disarmament because they can extract large amounts of radioactive cesium from soil.

US housing costs have risen by roughly 175% between 1991 and 2026—but a growing number of Gen Zers are becoming homeowners anyway. In 2025, 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before.

Domino's Pizza's 30-minute delivery guarantee was responsible for the chain's 1980s surge, but it was discontinued after the company was found liable for delivery driver accidents.