What is the cone of uncertainty?

The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

A common misconception is that regions beyond the cone are safe, but the spread does not depict the full reach of a cyclone's wind, rain, or storm surges. The cone is not built from real-time storm data but is an average forecast error from the past five years.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

A list of common questions and answers about hurricanes from NOAA

This FAQ answers many questions hurricane researchers at NOAA have received, sorted by category. The answers provide insights into hurricane classification and naming, forecasting their movement and growth, and tips for preparing ahead of landfall.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Hurricanes can grow by replacing their eyewall

A second outer eyewall can form around the primary eyewall surrounding a hurricane's eye. During an eyewall replacement cycle, the outer wall can weaken, collapse, and replace the inner wall, temporarily weakening the storm before it strengthens and grows.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Small elevation differences drastically protect homes in hurricanes

The construction of seaside homes has long involved building residences on elevated stilts, but this feature adds costs—and some elevated homes still fail. Explore the engineering behind the ideal height of a hurricane-proof building.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

Dust from the Sahel and Saharan regions makes northwest Africa a hurricane nursery

NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment—Cabo Verde studied the early stages of hurricane formation, identifying how dust interacts with clouds over the ocean to produce the rainy disturbances that become tropical cyclones.

The total cost of weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 is almost $3T

The NOAA’s Office of Coastal Management tracks the cost of damage, deaths, and other key statistics related to hurricanes and weather disasters. In 2024, there were 27 billion-dollar disasters, each averaging $1.2B more in damage than the prior five-year average.

Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes are not ranked based on measured wind speed

Technological limitations prevent direct measurements of wind speeds where tornadoes make contact with the ground. Instead, the Enhanced Fujita scale assigns a rating with a range of speeds based on how much damage a tornado caused to various types of structures. These types are more extensive than the original Fujita scale.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

The event horizon is an inescapable sphere around a black hole singularity

The horizon is often surrounded by an accretion disc of superheated material that orbits the black hole while emitting radiation. Light emitted behind a black hole can be bent around it to create the appearance of a ring of material known as a photon sphere.

Scientists use ground-based radar data to detect turbulence within clouds

NCAR developed the NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system to provide forecasts up to 18 hours ahead using ground-based Doppler radar data. Software systems also utilize an automated observation and reporting package—the EDR system—found on Delta, United, and Southwest Airlines aircraft.

NASA monitors potentially hazardous asteroids and comets

Established in 2016, the Planetary Defense Coordination Office characterizes and tracks asteroids and comets passing within 30 million miles of Earth. Over 40,000 near-Earth asteroids have been discovered, although estimates suggest that about 14,000 more such objects remain to be found.

Flood recurrence intervals are based on independent probabilities

The term "100-year flood" does not mean the event will only occur once every 100 years, but it has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. Soil saturation, watershed size, and urban development can impact flood severity.

What is a heat dome?

The world is seeing regular heat waves with multiple causes, including so-called "heat domes," a term rising in use in recent years. A heat dome occurs when the atmosphere traps hot ocean air like a lid or cap, creating stifling conditions and resulting in extended periods of heat. See an illustration of this phenomenon and read how it works with this brief explainer.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

Calculate your risk of developing cancer

Hosted by the National Cancer Institute, this tool provides interactive charts that display the likelihood of dying from various causes—including cancer—based on factors like age, sex, race, and smoking status. By contextualizing cancer risk among other potential health threats, users can create custom charts.

What is the Overton Window?

The concept of the Overton window is an excellent framework through which to analyze why politicians talk (or avoid) certain topics and policy positions, and how ideas change over time as societal attitudes evolve.

Reported earthquake magnitudes change as more data refines initial estimates

Initial magnitudes are based on limited information, while final magnitudes account for factors like fault size, rupture duration, and seismic wave behavior. Larger earthquakes have the most complex seismic wave activity and often require the most time to finalize recorded magnitudes.

Visualize chaos with the orbit of three or more objects bound by gravity

In this simulation, users can simulate randomized and preset orbital configurations for up to 10 celestial bodies to observe the system's evolution in an interactive 3D space. The same configurations can produce different orbital behavior—a feature of chaos—by making small changes to an object's mass under advanced settings.

All rainbows are 'raincircles' caused by water droplets separating white sunlight into a spectrum of colors, but Earth's surface blocks the bottom half of the circle from our line of sight.

LIGO boosts its signal sensitivity by manipulating quantum uncertainty

According to the uncertainty principle, the amplitude, or height of a wave's peak, and its phase—the point in time when the first peak is observed—are inversely linked. Based on the frequency of the gravitational waves of interest, scientists sacrifice precision in one optical property to reduce noise in another.

Wildfire containment requires trenches, natural barriers, or burned land

Containment refers to creating a perimeter around a fire that it is unlikely to spread beyond. However, full containment does not mean the fire is extinguished. Strong winds can cause fires to jump containment lines, including 10- to 12-foot-wide trenches or thin rivers.

How to build curiosity

Change and uncertainty induce stress, but reframing the unknown into an opportunity for discovery has tangible benefits. Approaching change with curiosity enhances activity in the hippocampus and promotes neuroplasticity, promoting learning and serving as a barrier against anxiety. A neuroscientist explains how embracing the unknown, trying small experiments, and other techniques build curiosity.

All rainbows are 'raincircles' caused by water droplets separating white sunlight into a spectrum of colors, but Earth's surface blocks the bottom half of the circle from our line of sight.

This real-time tracking of the hantavirus cruise ship outbreak in May 2026 offers a unique glimpse into the global reach of the outbreak and whether the virus sickened passengers and their communities around the world.

Most of the observable universe's volume consists of voids and supervoids—enormous regions of space with little to no galaxies, stars, or light.

Explore an interactive map built from more than 100,000 survey responses on where people find joy in their lives

Waves off the coast of Nazaré, Portugal, can reach over 100 feet and are caused by the area's deep underwater canyon geography

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Power lines are dotted with large, brightly colored balls to improve the visibility of these thin wires to helicopters and small planes and help prevent potential crashes.

View the ten deadliest tornadoes in US history.

Objects can be 3D printed with light by projecting 2D computerized tomography (CT) scans onto rotating cylinders of resin, which solidify upon exposure.

Some renewable energy sources may weaken the resiliency of electric grids by removing outage buffers provided by coal- and natural gas-fired plants, which provide the system with more time to find a new power source if a plant goes down.

When you complete a CAPTCHA on a website to prove you are human, you may be unknowingly training algorithms for self-driving cars, whose systems require training data to help identify crosswalks, bicycles, and other outdoor objects.

Lesser-known phobias include turophobia, or the fear of cheese, and nomophobia, the fear of being without your cell phone.

The United States is one of only around two dozen countries with a fully federal system of government, in which power is divided between national and state governments.

The syncytiotrophoblast is the outer layer of the placenta and the largest human cell, spanning an area about twice that of a king-sized bedsheet.

Louisiana's 'Cancer Alley' is infamous for having some of the highest industrial pollution, toxic air emissions, and cancer risks in the US.

The hormonal disorder PCOS was renamed PMOS in 2026, a move designed to improve care and research by shifting the focus to the hormonal causes of this condition that affects 1 in 8 women.

Domino's Pizza's 30-minute delivery guarantee was responsible for the chain's 1980s surge, but it was discontinued after the company was found liable for delivery driver accidents.

Use this calculator to find the dollar value of your mental load, from meal planning to coordinating after-school care for your children.

Memecoins are a type of cryptocurrency—a form of digital currency with a wide variety of uses—created around popular 'memes,' or viral internet jokes.

Explore what it's like inside a patient isolation unit, used in situations such as treating a patient or suspected patient with Ebola.

Brian Wilson wrote the Beach Boys' 'Don't Worry Baby' for the Ronettes, but the legendary girl group rejected it.