What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

What is the cone of uncertainty?

In hurricane forecasting, the cone of uncertainty results from connecting a set of circles representing where a hurricane is expected to be at 12-hour intervals. The size of each circle is two-thirds of the historical forecast error over the previous five years.

The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

A common misconception is that regions beyond the cone are safe, but the spread does not depict the full reach of a cyclone's wind, rain, or storm surges. The cone is not built from real-time storm data but is an average forecast error from the past five years.

All hurricanes have a central eye where no extreme weather phenomena take place

When standing in the eye of a hurricane, you're likely to experience sunny, cloudless skies surrounded by a wall of intense winds and thunderstorms. The physics behind this formation is the same as what causes water to spiral around a hollow cone as it goes down a drain.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Hurricanes spin due to differences in air and ground speed as they move across Earth

The movement of an object across latitudes causes it to take a curved trajectory because its speed no longer matches that of the ground beneath it. This phenomenon, called the Coriolis effect, explains why hurricanes spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

The way hurricanes are categorized may mislead the public to their dangers

The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed, but tropical cyclones' main dangers are storm surges and heavy rainfall. To better communicate risks to the public, a new system that incorporates hurricane size, water content, and other complexities should be developed.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

A list of common questions and answers about hurricanes from NOAA

This FAQ answers many questions hurricane researchers at NOAA have received, sorted by category. The answers provide insights into hurricane classification and naming, forecasting their movement and growth, and tips for preparing ahead of landfall.

How do hurricanes form?

Tropical cyclones, also called hurricanes and typhoons, cause catastrophic damage when they strike land. This four-minute video explores the life cycle of cyclones—how atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and the Earth’s rotation combine to create them, and how they are driven by winds and eventually weaken after moving over land.

Watch how scientists learn about hurricanes by flying into them

A specialized fleet of Air Force planes is built to fly into hurricanes and gather critical data from inside the storm. Beyond radar and microwave sensors, the planes are equipped with dropsondes—small instruments dropped into storms to measure pressure, temperature, and wind.

Fast-changing conditions during their formation make tornado forecasting difficult

The final steps of tornadogenesis—the process of forming a tornado—depend on near-surface details, such as local geography, which are difficult for radar to observe and affect how funnel clouds make contact with the ground. Inconsistencies in storm behavior have limited the amount of advance warning people receive before tornadoes touch down.

Small elevation differences drastically protect homes in hurricanes

The construction of seaside homes has long involved building residences on elevated stilts, but this feature adds costs—and some elevated homes still fail. Explore the engineering behind the ideal height of a hurricane-proof building.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

In Doppler radar imaging, a 'hook echo' helps identify a tornado-producing thunderstorm

Typically found in the right-rear part of a storm relative to its motion, the "hook" is the hallmark of a mesocyclone—a large, rotating updraft of air—within supercells, the most powerful thunderstorms. While tornadoes are known to develop within mesocyclones, they can also be detected by storm spotters trained to recognize tornado conditions in their communities.

Learn all about different types of extreme weather

Find out in more detail about different types of extreme weather, from flooding to thunderstorms, from tropical cyclones to sandstorms, and more (w/ helpful videos).

What's the difference between weather and climate?

A five-minute TedEd video exploring the differences between weather and climate – what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

The movement of seismic waves reveals the structure of Earth’s interior

Changes in temperature, density, and composition alter the path of primary and secondary waves, impacting where they are detected along Earth’s surface. These deflections create shadow zones 104 degrees to 140 degrees away from the epicenter, where no waves are directly detected.

How jet streams and US weather are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Jet streams are predominantly west-to-east air currents in the atmosphere that mark the boundary between cold polar air and warm tropical air, where cells of atmospheric circulation meet. By disrupting the location of these circulations on two- to seven-year cycles, ENSO alters the probability of droughts, floods, and above- or below-average temperatures across the US.

Eruption forecasting relies on probabilistic methods resembling weather forecasting

While some volcanoes erupt with predictable signs, such as surface deformation from the build-up of underground magma pressure, others release magma at inconsistent rates. Extensive monitoring is needed to identify less clear patterns and indicators of future eruptions.

Juno has revealed Jupiter’s polar cyclones, complex atmosphere, and diffuse core

The continent-sized cyclones at Jupiter’s poles generate strong winds and ammonia-laden storms. The spacecraft has also collected data on Jupiter’s unique magnetic field, which resembles a blend of Earth’s and Uranus/Neptune's.

What is a heat dome?

The world is seeing regular heat waves with multiple causes, including so-called "heat domes," a term rising in use in recent years. A heat dome occurs when the atmosphere traps hot ocean air like a lid or cap, creating stifling conditions and resulting in extended periods of heat. See an illustration of this phenomenon and read how it works with this brief explainer.

All rainbows are 'raincircles' caused by water droplets separating white sunlight into a spectrum of colors, but Earth's surface blocks the bottom half of the circle from our line of sight.

Our brains trick us into seeing an enlarged Moon when on the horizon

Humans perceive the sky as a flattened bowl and judge the size of an object by accounting for its perceived distance away from us. Combined, studies have found that the Moon on the horizon is perceived to be larger because the terrain makes it seem like it is farther away, similar to the Ponzo illusion.

Track all future solar eclipses and their projected paths of totality around the world

Solar eclipses are among the most awe-inspiring natural phenomena a person can witness, occurring when the Earth, Moon, and Sun align. This tool provides an interactive, data-rich visualization of the dramatic world events across time.

The names of comets can change based on subsequent observations

The International Astronomical Union's coded naming system uses the first letter to indicate a comet's category, which can change over time. "D" represents comets that have been lost or broken up, while "A" applies to former comets that are now asteroids or dwarf planets.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

While the sun's gravity keeps the planets in orbit, their gravity also pulls on the sun, causing it and everything else in the solar system to orbit around a mutual balance point called the barycenter—the true center of the solar system.

Power lines are dotted with large, brightly colored balls to improve the visibility of these thin wires to helicopters and small planes and help prevent potential crashes.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Learn how your body is, scientifically, like a firework with its own slow, controlled burn.

Explore an interactive map built from more than 100,000 survey responses on where people find joy in their lives

El Niño, Spanish for 'the boy,' was named after Jesus Christ because the phenomenon resembled the weather changes observed around Christmastime.

View the ten deadliest tornadoes in US history.

How the most famous Ebola book, The Hot Zone, which sold 3.5 million copies and was translated into 30 languages, got aspects of the disease so wrong.

Corals are themselves not coral reefs—the term refers to the tiny marine invertebrates that build the rigid reef.

Objects can be 3D printed with light by projecting 2D computerized tomography (CT) scans onto rotating cylinders of resin, which solidify upon exposure.

This real-time tracking of the hantavirus cruise ship outbreak in May 2026 offers a unique glimpse into the global reach of the outbreak and whether the virus sickened passengers and their communities around the world.

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

The power and influence of the American presidency have expanded significantly over time—far beyond what the founders envisioned.

Neutron stars, the remains of some massive stars after they explode in a supernova, are the densest directly observable objects in the universe.

Fear or disgust related to clusters of holes and cracks, called trypophobia, may stem from evolutionary processes to help us avoid pathogens.

Hear 50 years of iconic hip-hop samples, the genre's foundational looped tracks

Poison ivy will likely become both larger and more resilient due to climate change.

When you complete a CAPTCHA on a website to prove you are human, you may be unknowingly training algorithms for self-driving cars, whose systems require training data to help identify crosswalks, bicycles, and other outdoor objects.

The first steps to rebuilding your credit score include getting to know exactly what's on your credit report and figuring out how far you are from the '700 club,' or 'good score' range.

The syncytiotrophoblast is the outer layer of the placenta and the largest human cell, spanning an area about twice that of a king-sized bedsheet.