Fast-changing conditions during their formation make tornado forecasting difficult

Tornado formation relies on wind shear to create a tube of rotating air

Once a horizontal vortex is created by air circulating between winds of different directions and speeds, an updraft, such as those seen in powerful thunderstorms, tilts the vortex vertically. The updraft then strengthens the vortex, which becomes a tornado upon touching the ground.

In a tornado outbreak, a single severe weather system can spawn multiple twisters

By maintaining the ingredients for tornadoes—differences in wind speed and direction across altitudes, moisture, and rising air—for long periods of time as it moves across a region, a severe thunderstorm can continuously produce tornadoes by lifting multiple columns of horizontally rotating air.

Though less common, tornadoes can form without the presence of thunderstorms

Supercell tornadoes involve rising warm air—updrafts—from the strongest type of thunderstorm—supercells—to help turn horizontally rotating tunnels of air into vertical columns. In non-supercell tornadoes, which are generally weaker as a result of forming within less energetic systems, vertical rotation is present from the start near ground level.

Tornadoes, or twisters, have been seen on every continent but Antarctica

Because tornadoes require rising warm air to form, some meteorologists have suggested that urban environments—locations where human landscape modification has introduced materials that trap thermal energy—can enhance the conditions needed for tornado formation. Tornadoes have been reported to cause ear "popping" due to drastic changes in air pressure.

Tornado chasers include scientists conducting field projects

Research teams use drones, mobile weather stations, and radar systems to capture real-time meteorological data, better understand conditions that favor tornado formation, and improve forecasting models. As of 2022, model limitations result in roughly 70% of tornado warnings being false alarms.

Tornadoes produce inaudible signals to humans hours before forming

Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have found that tornado-producing storms generate specific sounds below the range of human hearing, much like the infrasonic signals produced by earthquakes and avalanches. Although difficult to distinguish from wind noise, scientists hope to build systems that use these signals to improve tornado forecasting.

The National Weather Service communicates tornado risks on a three-tier system

During a tornado watch, atmospheric conditions favor the development of a tornado, and residents in an area should be prepared to seek refuge. A tornado warning is issued if a tornado has been detected, while a tornado emergency indicates a violent tornado has touched down in the area, with severe threats to human life and property expected.

Most tornadoes occur during the afternoon and evening hours

While there is no official national tornado season as with Atlantic hurricanes, many tornadoes form in the presence of thunderstorms, which are fueled by solar heating and the energy released by the condensation of water vapor. The airflow instabilities created from this energy build throughout the day until the sun sets.

Watch the birth of a tornado in real time

While driving through suburban Oklahoma in May 2013, National Geographic explorer and storm researcher Tim Samaras witnessed the formation of a tornado from a thunderstorm and captured footage of the descending funnel cloud before it touched down.

The first known instance of a fire tornado occurred in 2003

During pyro-tornadogenesis, many processes that create thunderstorms from wildfires, such as rising hot air and steam from evaporated water in forests, fuel the formation of a fire tornado. The increasing rates of wildfires due to climate change are expected to make this phenomenon and other extreme weather more common.

Tropical cyclone formation require warm water and limited vertical wind shear

Ocean temperatures above 27 degrees Celsius fuel rising, moist air, which releases energy through heat as water vapor condenses into clouds. Significant changes in wind speed with height can spread out these upflows, preventing the eventual formation of a central column known as the eye.

Scientists use ground-based radar data to detect turbulence within clouds

NCAR developed the NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system to provide forecasts up to 18 hours ahead using ground-based Doppler radar data. Software systems also utilize an automated observation and reporting package—the EDR system—found on Delta, United, and Southwest Airlines aircraft.

Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes are not ranked based on measured wind speed

Technological limitations prevent direct measurements of wind speeds where tornadoes make contact with the ground. Instead, the Enhanced Fujita scale assigns a rating with a range of speeds based on how much damage a tornado caused to various types of structures. These types are more extensive than the original Fujita scale.

In Doppler radar imaging, a 'hook echo' helps identify a tornado-producing thunderstorm

Typically found in the right-rear part of a storm relative to its motion, the "hook" is the hallmark of a mesocyclone—a large, rotating updraft of air—within supercells, the most powerful thunderstorms. While tornadoes are known to develop within mesocyclones, they can also be detected by storm spotters trained to recognize tornado conditions in their communities.

The ingredients that make up severe weather

A seven-minute video illustrating how a storm is made. These factors—moisture, instability, lift, and shear—are explained through a series of data sets and creative, descriptive diagrams.

Atmospheric processes amplify the strength of storms by coalescing clouds

Research has shown that turbulent mixing of air at the edges of clouds and other small-scale thermal activity beneath them help clouds group together, intensifying short bursts of rainfall, especially in tropical regions. Simulations reveal this produces more powerful storms than predicted by older models, though they may occur less frequently.

Tornado myths include suggestions to hide beneath a bridge or to open windows

Winds can accelerate due to a tunneling effect as they pass under a structure, making seeking shelter from a tornado in a mobile home or recreational vehicle highly discouraged. Significant tornado damage results from debris being picked up and hurled by strong winds, making it unsafe to be near windows that may shatter.

How do hurricanes form?

Tropical cyclones, also called hurricanes and typhoons, cause catastrophic damage when they strike land. This four-minute video explores the life cycle of cyclones—how atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and the Earth’s rotation combine to create them, and how they are driven by winds and eventually weaken after moving over land.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The turbulence experienced in airplanes results from unexpected changes in airflow

Pilots rely on forecasts, onboard tools, and air traffic control to avoid regions of severe turbulence during flight. Turbulence is generally weaker for those sitting in the front of the main cabin and for morning flights that follow cooler nighttime temperatures.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

An explanation distinguishing the butterfly effect from causality, necessity, and sufficiency

In pop culture, the analogy has conveyed the impression that the flapping of a butterfly's wings has a cascading effect that directly produces a tornado somewhere else on Earth. However, butterfly-wing flapping alone is insufficient to cause tornadoes, as the complexity of atmospheric systems requires many more conditions to produce them, any of which can be the tipping point to initiate tornadogenesis.

Hail forms in freezing temperatures thousands of feet above the ground

Even if surface temperatures are well above freezing during the summer, updrafts during thunderstorms can push raindrops high into the atmosphere, where they can freeze and form hail. Giant hailstones the size of softballs require updrafts of close to 100 mph.

Why do flash floods occur?

Flash flooding can be more dangerous than traditional floods, occurring within the span of hours and exhibiting rapid currents. Here's how atmospheric conditions and geography combine to make some locations ripe for the disaster.

Eruption forecasting relies on probabilistic methods resembling weather forecasting

While some volcanoes erupt with predictable signs, such as surface deformation from the build-up of underground magma pressure, others release magma at inconsistent rates. Extensive monitoring is needed to identify less clear patterns and indicators of future eruptions.

View the ten deadliest tornadoes in US history.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Dirty lightning is a thunderstorm created from friction between rising and falling flows of ash and smoke during volcanic eruptions.

Asteroids are often unobserved until they are days away from Earth

Even those large enough to cause local or regional damage are too small, dim, and far away to be observed readily from cosmological distances. New tools, like NASA's NEO Surveyor telescope, aim to address gaps in detection systems.

Stars appear to twinkle because turbulence in the motion of molecules in Earth's atmosphere causes light to bend and wiggle rapidly on its way to the surface—a phenomenon called scintillation.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Some renewable energy sources may weaken the resiliency of electric grids by removing outage buffers provided by coal- and natural gas-fired plants, which provide the system with more time to find a new power source if a plant goes down.

The boiling temperature of water decreases with increasing elevation because the molecules need less energy to overcome the lower atmospheric pressure associated with thinner air.

To reduce wrinkles in clothing, research recommends gentle wash cycles with more water and tumble drying with smaller loads and longer times.

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