An economic evaluation of US tariffs

Explore the complex trade-offs policymakers face when considering tariffs

While tariffs can generate government revenue and encourage the consumption of locally produced goods, they can often lead to higher consumer prices and may negatively impact economic growth.

The overall economic effect of President Trump's 2025 tariffs remains unclear

Researchers from UCLA and Yale found that tariff revenue and gains to US producers largely offset importers' costs—but the broader picture is murkier, as the trade deficit rose, manufacturing jobs declined, and 90% of tariff costs were passed through to importers rather than absorbed by foreign exporters.

Tariffs once fueled the US economy

US tariffs peaked in 1930 with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which slashed global trade by 65%. Once a key revenue source, tariffs gave way to income taxes in 1913, leading to decades of lower trade barriers. Today, US tariffs remain among the lowest worldwide.

How do tariffs work?

This brief animated video from Time walks through a simple example of a tariff on a single good, illustrating how this would affect the market for the good—both domestically and abroad—and who would eventually bear the cost of the tariff.

Pros and cons of tariffs

While some mainstream economists are skeptical about tariffs, President Donald Trump is bullish on them. The pros and cons of tariffs include their ability to help governments raise money and the potential for retaliatory tariffs.

A nuanced break down of how tariffs are impacting prices

As tariffs have increased to their highest levels since the 1930s, economists have kept a close eye on retail prices. This chart and accompanying explainer shows correlations between key tariff announcements and news and the costs of roughly 350,000 goods from five major retailers.

Read an overview of US tariff policy before the second Trump Administration

This comprehensive report from the Congressional Research Service explores the evolving role of tariffs—from a major source of government revenue to a tool for trade and foreign policy—providing insights into current practices, legal foundations, and global trade dynamics.

Tariffs are typically paid by the importing company or organization to the US treasury

Tariffs levied on foreign countries are typically paid by the importer upon arrival of goods—for example, if Walmart imported a $100 pair of shoes, they would pay the US treasury an additional $15 under a 15% tariff rate. The degree to which these costs are passed onto consumers depends on real-world business agreements.

Behind the scenes on tariff politics

Economist Gene Grossman joined the Trade Talks Podcast to discuss why tariffs really happen. The episode digs into how voters, politicians, lobbyists, and even campaign cash can affect when protectionist trade policies are put forward. Produced in 2019, the podcast also discusses how populist trade policies and identity politics accounted for Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 Presidential election.

A trade war is an economic conflict where nations impose tariffs or other trade barriers on each other in retaliation for similar actions

The US-China trade war is one example. While they aim to protect domestic industries, they can lead to higher prices for consumers and strained international relations.

Revenue from tariffs goes to the US Treasury’s general fund

That's also where federal income taxes go. Revenue from tariffs can be spent on almost anything the government needs, such as funding programs like Medicare or the military.

The US dollar's value weakened significantly in 2025 amid tariffs

Experts at US Bank predicted in August 2025, that the downward trend was likely to continue, although they acknowledged that uncertainty remains high. As tariffs moved to the center of the White House’s agenda, all G10 currencies grew stronger against the dollar—the Swiss franc even posted double-digit gains.

Explore the "winners and losers" of the Trump administration's H-1B visa fee

In this episode, experts discuss the rationale behind the new $100K fee, citing concerns about abuse of the H-1B program. Some economists warn that it could spur offshoring, reduce innovation, and create ripple effects on wages and talent supply.

Does minimum wage hurt workers?

Many economists traditionally believed raising the minimum wage hurt workers more than helped them. They argued that doing so would lead to job losses believing that if something is more expensive (like labor), people (like business owners) would want to buy less of it. However, recent research suggests otherwise.

The Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that Trump's emergency tariff powers didn't extend to imposing tariffs

In a 6-3 decision, the court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act—a 1977 law granting the president authority to regulate commerce during national emergencies—does not authorise the president to unilaterally impose tariffs, a power the Constitution reserves to Congress.

AI investment may be the next major economic bubble

A video examines the massive surge in AI spending—forecast to hit $500B by 2026—and how this may be propping up a fragile US economy. Experts warn that if AI investment slows or under-delivers, the consequences could be felt in markets, jobs and growth.

Some economists argue the national debt is not a critical concern

The US has the largest national debt and one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios. These vitals have long been considered a sign of poor fiscal health, but economists are beginning to shift their attention to interest rates to evaluate national debt.

Why the employment report matters to Wall Street

On the first Friday of every month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the infamous "jobs report." The report essentially tracks how US employment is doing, from the unemployment rate to the number of people in the US currently on payroll. But most importantly, the jobs report has major implications for the economy at large. To find out how this monthly report impacts Wall Street, read this article.

Government shutdowns can cost the US economy billions

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018-19 shutdown reduced economic output by about $11B, including a permanent loss of roughly $3B

How Taiwan residents view China and the US

There is widespread support in Taiwan for increased economic and political ties with the US, compared to China. This deep dive of data from the Pew Research Center breaks down how various segments of Taiwan's population perceive the US and China individually and among other Asia-Pacific countries.

British economist John Maynard Keynes originally proposed a global currency called the bancor

Keynes—one of the chief architects of the Bretton Woods system—proposed establishing a global central bank that would issue a new international currency, the bancor, to settle trade imbalances. The idea was rejected in favor of the US dollar serving as the main currency of the international system.

The US dollar is the most widely circulated currency in the world, and is involved in nearly 90% of global transactions

The Federal Reserve acknowledged the impact of the 'Eras' tour on regional economies

Taylor Swift’s music has become so successful, and her global fan base so extensive and so committed, her touring is as much of an economic story as it is an artistic one. Taylor’s tours bring a financial boost to sectors including hospitality and travel.

A list of the world's top 25 economies by GDP

Gross domestic product estimates the value of goods and services produced in a country, typically through the expenditure method, which adds up spending by consumers, investors and governments with the value of exports. The top five economies are the US, China, Germany, Japan and India.

Steve Jobs once explained why iPhones can’t be made in the US

In 2011, then-President Obama asked Steve Jobs, “What would it take to make iPhones in the United States?” Steve Jobs said it wasn’t a viable option, explaining that overseas factories had far outpaced the US’s in terms of skill and speed.

An economist answers questions about love

Economists aren't exactly known for their dating advice. But as it turns out, economics experts can offer fresh perspectives to everyday romantic quandaries. On this podcast episode, economist Tim Harford answers listeners’ relationship quandaries, from paying for a first date to alternatives to saying, "I love you." Listen to the episode here.

Calculate how much of your tax dollars go to each federal program based on your income, filing status, and number of children

While the first exchange-traded fund (a 'basket' of different assets that can be bought and sold on a stock exchange) in the US only launched in 1993, the global ETF market has grown to more than $10T in the short time since.

US consumers collectively owe more than $1T to credit card companies—almost as much as they owe in auto loans.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

The United States has had a tumultuous relationship with Cuba since its 1959 revolution, highlighted by a nuclear crisis and a decades-long trade embargo.

Mark Twain spent decades feuding with the US Postal Service, convinced its costs and regulations were bureaucratic overreach.

The American Society of Civil Engineers' infrastructure report card gave the US a C in 2025, its highest grade since the project launched in 1998.

The rivalry between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson centered on federalism—the question of how much power the federal government should hold relative to the states.

See a ranking of the best (and worst) Federal Reserve Chairs since 1914 out of the 16 men and women who have held the office since.

Despite being favored by 87% of Americans, Congress does not have term limits.

Art theft is the third-largest source of criminal revenues worldwide, thanks in part to the subjective nature of valuing a work of art.

US housing costs have risen by roughly 175% between 1991 and 2026—but a growing number of Gen Zers are becoming homeowners anyway. In 2025, 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before.

About 2,000 US babies are born annually without some portion of their limbs, potentially leading to a lifetime of pricey prosthetics.

Some renewable energy sources may weaken the resiliency of electric grids by removing outage buffers provided by coal- and natural gas-fired plants, which provide the system with more time to find a new power source if a plant goes down.

View the ten deadliest tornadoes in US history.

Explore an interactive map built from more than 100,000 survey responses on where people find joy in their lives

Jimmy Carter signed a 1978 bill that legalized home brewing, a move credited with kick-starting the craft beer industry.

Hookworm infection, though risky, may help fight certain autoimmune conditions by tamping down the immune system's inflammatory response.

To reduce wrinkles in clothing, research recommends gentle wash cycles with more water and tumble drying with smaller loads and longer times.

In 2025, four executives from large tech companies were given positions in the US Army Reserves—including Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar, which reinforced Palantir's ties with the US military and its role as a leading defense partner.

See how fireworks are made and learn how metals like magnesium and copper are responsible for different colors.

The most expensive ad of all time was for Chanel No. 5 perfume and cost roughly $33M to produce in 2004—about $57M in today's dollars.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the largest ground war in Europe since World War II in casualties, forces mobilized, and displacement of civilians.

The identity of the Tank Man in the iconic photo from the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests remains unknown and was possibly killed.