How scientists use data to anticipate the phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Compare various El Niño-Southern Oscillations using maps of atmospheric and ocean variables

Because the intensity of the phases in the cycle is sensitive to small variations in atmospheric and ocean conditions and depends on complex interactions between these two systems, no two El Niño or La Niña events are identical. This contributes to the variability in the length of each phase, which is why an ENSO can last as little as two years or as long as seven.

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

Breaking down the health effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Second only to the seasons, ENSO is the most significant source of variability in global climate, shifting rainfall and temperature patterns, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia. The incidence of vector-borne diseases like malaria, respiratory diseases related to wildfire smoke, food insecurity, and drought-related health and nutritional impacts has been observed to be affected by ENSO.

Comparing La Niña and El Niño atmosphere-ocean feedback patterns

During La Niña, trade winds reinforce the flow of warm ocean water from the eastern to the western Pacific, allowing colder subsurface water in the eastern Pacific to rise to the surface. These changes reinforce overhead air movements by altering the air temperature near the ocean surface. During El Niño, these trade winds weaken or reverse, preventing upwelling by shifting warm water back to the eastern Pacific and displacing atmospheric circulation patterns.

Mapping how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects weather patterns around the world

In the warm episode (El Niño), summers in India, Indonesia, Australia, and the Caribbean are drier than normal, while winters bring wetter, cooler conditions to the US Gulf Coast and warmer conditions to the Pacific Northwest. During the cold episode (La Niña), these are reversed, with India, Indonesia, and the southern Caribbean experiencing greater rainfall in the summers.

El Niño and La Niña are Pacific Ocean climate patterns that affect global weather

El Niño causes warm water to move east, disrupting ocean life and bringing wetter conditions to the southern US and drier ones to the North. La Niña strengthens the usual wind patterns, triggering cooler northern winters and more storms in the Pacific Northwest.

How jet streams and US weather are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Jet streams are predominantly west-to-east air currents in the atmosphere that mark the boundary between cold polar air and warm tropical air, where cells of atmospheric circulation meet. By disrupting the location of these circulations on two- to seven-year cycles, ENSO alters the probability of droughts, floods, and above- or below-average temperatures across the US.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate

Data from NASA satellites help view and explain global climate and weather patterns, such as El Niño and La Niña.

Learn about various ocean-atmosphere cycles impacting global weather patterns

Although the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is among the most impactful, the North Atlantic Oscillation strongly influences weather patterns in the Northeast US by periodically changing atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic. The North Pacific Oscillation fluctuates atmospheric pressure and sea-surface temperatures that affect winter temperatures over much of the US.

El Niño, Spanish for 'the boy,' was named after Jesus Christ because the phenomenon resembled the weather changes observed around Christmastime.

The global impacts of the 1877 'super' El Niño and what could result from similar future events

The 1877 El Niño event lasted approximately 18 months, raised temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean by 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.86 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, and contributed to a global famine that killed more than 50 million people. Such events are expected to exacerbate drought-related risks to global food security, driving up food prices worldwide. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

El Niño, Spanish for 'the boy,' was named after Jesus Christ because the phenomenon resembled the weather changes observed around Christmastime.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

Visualizing changes in ocean temperatures between 2016 and 2020

How much does the temperature of the sea change in a given year? This visualization helps illustrate the changes by showing sea surface temperature data from January 2016 through March 2020. Sea surface temperature, which refers to water temperature at the sea's surface, plays a significant role in climate and weather.

Why the ratios of helium isotopes are analyzed to investigate ocean circulation

Volcanic activity on the seafloor produces high ratios of helium-3 to helium-4, which can be tracked in ocean samples more easily than other elements because helium is nonreactive. Water from deep ocean currents can also be distinguished from air-exposed surface water sources by comparing these ratios, since atmospheric helium ratios are much lower.

The ocean's ability to store carbon long-term is being hindered by marine heatwaves

More than 4,000 robotic floats with biogeochemical data sensors, including oxygen, pH, nitrate, suspended particles, chlorophyll, temperature, and conductivity, have been deployed as part of the Global Ocean Biogeochemical Array. They have identified changes to ecosystem structure affecting the ocean's ability to transport carbon from surface waters into the deep.

The movement of seismic waves reveals the structure of Earth’s interior

Changes in temperature, density, and composition alter the path of primary and secondary waves, impacting where they are detected along Earth’s surface. These deflections create shadow zones 104 degrees to 140 degrees away from the epicenter, where no waves are directly detected.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

NASA explores Earth's deepest oceans to prepare for space

By studying extreme environments in Earth's hadal zone—the deepest part of the ocean —NASA tests technologies, probes life under crushing pressure, and gathers clues about potential oceans and possible life on worlds like Europa and Enceladus.

Scientists quantify how far from the poles auroras will be visible using the G-scale

The Geomagnetic Storm scale indicates the expected severity of the deformation of Earth's magnetic field based on the amount of energy injected by the solar wind. Solar activity is monitored using various satellites to forecast these storms, which can also be used to anticipate damage and disruption to power systems, radio communications, and satellite navigation.

Climate proxies reveal past climate patterns using preserved natural evidence

Scientists use physical, chemical, and biological materials preserved in sediments, ice, and fossils to infer historical climate data. These proxies are studied and calibrated against modern climate conditions to interpret ancient environments accurately.

Environmental DNA monitoring can help detect the presence of invasive species

Genetic material that organisms deposit into water, soil, or air can be identified by analyzing samples from each environment, allowing land managers to more reliably detect and track organisms than visual surveys alone. eDNA has been used to develop early warning surveillance systems for various invasive marine species.

Eruption forecasting relies on probabilistic methods resembling weather forecasting

While some volcanoes erupt with predictable signs, such as surface deformation from the build-up of underground magma pressure, others release magma at inconsistent rates. Extensive monitoring is needed to identify less clear patterns and indicators of future eruptions.

Studying the circadian clock of a tiny swimming polar creature may help forecast polar ecosystem health

A 2025 study found that Antarctic krill, a food chain staple in the Southern Ocean, have an internal biological clock that helps regulate its swimming patterns and helps the tiny shrimp-like animals adapt to daily and seasonal environmental changes. Better understanding of how the clock and light cues interact may help scientists understand how well the species will respond to pronounced climate change in the polar region.

NASA plans to bring down the ISS at a location farthest from land

Point Nemo is located in the South Pacific Ocean at coordinates 48°52.6'S 123°23.6'W, approximately 2,688 kilometers (1,670 miles) from Ducie Island, Motu Nui, and Maher Island. The location has served as an underwater graveyard for hundreds of satellites and is expected to be harbor the International Space Station in 2030.

View a map of the distribution of mineral resources on the seafloor

Polymetallic nodules are found in regions near the middle of the Pacific Ocean, along the eastern coast of South America, and along the western coast of Africa, while cobalt-rich crusts span significant portions of the Pacific tropics east of the Philippines. Polymetallic sulfide deposits occur at tectonic plate boundaries, including areas within national jurisdictions.

Explore the animals that populate the depths of the ocean, from fish and coral in the first few hundred feet, all the way down to the bottom of the Mariana Trench.

The difference between solstice and equinox, explained

A solstice marks the extremes in the amount of day or night, while the equinoxes come on days with a balance between the two. Learn why with this brief video.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

Massive blooms of microscopic plankton called dinoflagellates produce the neon blue light seen in glowing tides.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

Dirty lightning is a thunderstorm created from friction between rising and falling flows of ash and smoke during volcanic eruptions.

See the 25 of the best photos of auroras from around the world.

An investigation suggests a Scottish island became awash in forever chemicals via seafoam and seaspray—raising questions about what that means for the safety of other coastal areas.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The Great Salt Lake's distinct dual coloration results from high-salinity organisms that only live in the northern portion and produce a purple protein.

How the most famous Ebola book, The Hot Zone, which sold 3.5 million copies and was translated into 30 languages, got aspects of the disease so wrong.

This real-time tracking of the hantavirus cruise ship outbreak in May 2026 offers a unique glimpse into the global reach of the outbreak and whether the virus sickened passengers and their communities around the world.

The hormonal disorder PCOS was renamed PMOS in 2026, a move designed to improve care and research by shifting the focus to the hormonal causes of this condition that affects 1 in 8 women.

Electrical grids worldwide must double their power delivery capacity by 2050 to meet surging demand from AI and electric vehicles.

'Shogun,' a 1980s TV series, helped popularize sushi in the US by stimulating an American interest in Japanese culture.

Pure water does not conduct electricity because this flow of energy requires the movement of charged particles, and water is a neutral molecule.

A century of Billboard issues documenting the evolution of popular music.

Clever Hans was a 1900s horse that was believed to be able to solve math equations, tell time, and read and comprehend German, until a psychology student discovered how he got his answers.

The Nasdaq's 'Magnificent 7' companies are responsible for roughly 40% of the Nasdaq 100 index's gains, while the remaining 93 companies account for the other 60%.

In 2026, Finland was named the world's happiest country for the ninth consecutive year based on its wealth, social safety network, and high life expectancy, among other factors.

For centuries, it was common to sleep in two shifts: a few hours at the beginning of the night, and a longer period beginning around midnight

The 1987 Nintendo video game 'Stadium Events' isn't known for being particularly fun, but its scarcity has made it a highly sought-after item that has sold for up to $35K at auction.

Use this tool to calculate the dollar value of your parental mental load, from meal planning to coordinating after-school care, then see resources that help generate solutions.