Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

Explore a simulation of the greenhouse effect

Investigate how cloud cover, surface albedo—a measure of a surface's reflectiveness—greenhouse concentrations, and atmospheric layers affect the energy balance on a simulated planet. Using either the wave or particle models of light, users can also explore how changes in solar intensity affect planetary surface temperature.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The greenhouse effect was discovered by analyzing Earth's temperature

Using mathematical techniques developed to analyze heat transfer, Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier showed that Earth should be significantly cooler if solar radiation were the only contributor to its surface temperature. By considering that the atmosphere could amplify the sun's warming effect, he formulated what became known as the greenhouse effect.

What are climate models?

Climate modeling what is a global climate model? What are their uses? Why do we believe them? What do they agree on? Why do they disagree? How do we improve them?

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The Navier-Stokes equations are fundamentally accurate but unsolved in 3D

The equations model fluids and have been shown to have solutions for all systems in two dimensions. Averaging and approximations let the equations be used in climate models, aerodynamics, and medicine, though their use in some systems produces nonsensical answers.

An overview of Earth's atmospheric cells and how they distribute Earth's uneven heating

The Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells are circulation patterns that act like gears, moving warmer air from the equator to the poles. The rising and falling of air currents within these patterns creates semi-persistent regions of low and high pressure, which contribute to the formation of regional climates, such as tropical zones.

Variations in rock types contribute to uncertainty in earthquake predictions

Different rock types can withstand different amounts of stress before breaking and melt at different temperatures within Earth’s interior, preventing uniform modeling. The planet’s uneven mass distribution also creates variations in gravitational force, complicating mantle movement.

Layers in sediment cores hold clues to Earth’s past climate

By analyzing materials such as pollen and algae within the layers of these cores, which are collected from lakes and oceans, scientists can learn what the environment and climate were like when that layer formed.

B2 models the interactions of air, water, soil, plants and microbes at the LEO

The Landscape Evolution Observatory at Biosphere 2 examines how factors such as climate change, water flow, weathering and community development impact landscape structures comprising 500 metric tons of crushed rock. Research is also conducted at biomes representing savannas, mangroves, coastal fog deserts, oceans and rainforests.

How geometry and uneven charge distribution make some molecules greenhouse gases

Molecules vibrate and rotate with different frequencies based on their elemental composition and shape, which can produce uneven distributions of electrons, as seen in carbon dioxide and water. The resulting unbalanced electric field can interact with electromagnetic waves of the same frequency, causing the molecule to absorb the radiation.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

Scientists have tested atmospheric models by firing rockets into the aurora borealis

Functioning like components of a CT scan, the missiles transmit signals that can be used to identify charged particles and electromagnetic currents in slices. The slices are then combined to construct a computer-based model of Earth's atmospheric structure, which is used to compare the accuracy of physics-based models.

Sets incorporating immersive mixed reality have transformed weather reporting

The technology enables presenters to step into virtual environments that incorporate 3D models and real-time data, providing more engaging and interactive forecasting. They have also facilitated the development of educational segments where meteorologists use virtual models to explain complex weather phenomena.

Climate determinism wrongly linked human traits and societal progress to geography

Historically rooted in Greek philosophy, its ideas used the latitudes where people were located to justify racial hierarchies, casting tropical peoples as lazy or inferior. These biases still influence how media and research portray people in climatically disadvantaged regions. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

Earth’s tilt and orbit cause the sun to create a figure-eight pattern

The shape—called an analemma—can be obtained by photographing the sun from the same location and time daily for a year. The Earth's eccentricity created the analemma's width, and its tilt shifts the sun's height in the sky over the seasons.

Color originates from the brain processing light of varying wavelengths

Various geometric models, including Newton's color circle of hue and saturation and the horseshoe-shaped XYZ space for mixing colors via vector mathematics, have been proposed to describe colors accurately. However, these models do not encapsulate the variety of psychological effects that cause perceived colors to differ from mathematical representations.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

While the sun's gravity keeps the planets in orbit, their gravity also pulls on the sun, causing it and everything else in the solar system to orbit around a mutual balance point called the barycenter—the true center of the solar system.

Simulations suggest ice's slipperiness comes from rearranging molecules

Past models have proposed that slipperiness arises from a thin layer of liquid water formed at the ice's surface by frictional melting. However, new research suggests that electromagnetic forces between interacting surfaces push water molecules out of an ordered, crystalline structure and into a shapeless, soft, slippery layer. This process occurs solely through contact, independent of pressure or friction.

Jupiter’s size forced the creation of modified planetary formation models

Since solar winds remove gases from protoplanetary disks within millions of years of a star’s birth, models needed to provide a mechanism to jump-start Jupiter’s formation and growth. The solution involved incorporating pebbles of matter into the disk.

Stars appear to twinkle because turbulence in the motion of molecules in Earth's atmosphere causes light to bend and wiggle rapidly on its way to the surface—a phenomenon called scintillation.

Scientists testing how climate change affects plants found, in a years-long simulation study, that poison ivy grew 70% faster with the resulting extra carbon dioxide.

All rainbows are 'raincircles' caused by water droplets separating white sunlight into a spectrum of colors, but Earth's surface blocks the bottom half of the circle from our line of sight.

The boiling temperature of water decreases with increasing elevation because the molecules need less energy to overcome the lower atmospheric pressure associated with thinner air.

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

According to the physics of black holes, our 4D reality may be a hologram—a projection of information coded on a 2D surface on the edge of the universe.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

Radioactive elements can introduce software errors because the ionizing radiation they produce can detach electrons from atoms, and computer code relies on the distribution of electrons.

Electrical grids worldwide must double their power delivery capacity by 2050 to meet surging demand from AI and electric vehicles.

Watch how algorithms can be designed to train themselves and self-improve without human input, to the point where the optimized code is too complex for programmers to understand.

How Amazon operates a 'flywheel' business model, a self-reinforcing cycle that drives continuous growth

Volcanoes 'die' when their supply of magma runs out, if they are shifted away from their underlying magma reservoir, or if they get clogged by collapsing or their magma cooling back into rock.

As of 2025, the most cited papers in science include a review of graphene, methods to improve image recognition, streamlining electron density calculations, and optimizing protein studies.

Studies suggest when you sleep is as important as how much you get, and syncing with your circadian rhythms may lead to less fatigue and improved long-term health outcomes

The term 'algorithm' originated from the Latinized name of al-Khwārizmī, a 9th-century mathematician whose works introduced Arabic numerals and the decimal-based numeral system to Europe and whose treatise 'Al-Jabr' gave algebra its name.

Play the role of a student in a game where you try to navigate college and remain debt-free, selecting different income levels, high school experience, race, ethnicity, and more.

Massive 3D printers have been used to build homes by stacking layers of 'concrete toothpaste,' a fire-resistant material that effectively insulates against outside noise.

How the most famous Ebola book, The Hot Zone, which sold 3.5 million copies and was translated into 30 languages, got aspects of the disease so wrong.

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

Coral polyps reproduce via broadcast spawning, where entire reefs simultaneously release reproductive cells for about one hour, once a year.

The price of gas is a composite made up of several different factors, with the federal gas tax making up less than 20% of what drivers pay at the pump.