Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

The simplest models assume uniformity across the Earth, with incoming energy from the sun being offset by the planet's albedo, or reflectiveness, which prevents the radiation from being fully absorbed. Incorporating elements such as atmospheric layers, latitude bands, geographic variability, and emissivity yields coupled differential equations quantifying Earth's interconnected systems.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

What are climate models?

Climate modeling what is a global climate model? What are their uses? Why do we believe them? What do they agree on? Why do they disagree? How do we improve them?

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

The Navier-Stokes equations are fundamentally accurate but unsolved in 3D

The equations model fluids and have been shown to have solutions for all systems in two dimensions. Averaging and approximations let the equations be used in climate models, aerodynamics, and medicine, though their use in some systems produces nonsensical answers.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The greenhouse effect was discovered by analyzing Earth's temperature

Using mathematical techniques developed to analyze heat transfer, Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier showed that Earth should be significantly cooler if solar radiation were the only contributor to its surface temperature. By considering that the atmosphere could amplify the sun's warming effect, he formulated what became known as the greenhouse effect.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

An overview of Earth's atmospheric cells and how they distribute Earth's uneven heating

The Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar cells are circulation patterns that act like gears, moving warmer air from the equator to the poles. The rising and falling of air currents within these patterns creates semi-persistent regions of low and high pressure, which contribute to the formation of regional climates, such as tropical zones.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

View 3D renderings of atomic orbitals created with quantum mechanics

Scientists use the Schrödinger equation to determine how a system governed by a wavefunction—an equation that predicts the probability of certain outcomes—evolves with time. Computers can animate atomic structure and behavior by depicting the wavefunction as a fluid that guides a particle, like water moving a speck of dust.

Convection flows in Earth’s mantle drive the movement of tectonic plates

These processes transfer heat from Earth’s core to the surface via rising magma plumes, while cooler, denser rock falls into the mantle at rates similar to human fingernail growth. These rates are determined by combining seismic data with computer simulations to model Earth’s interior.

Scientists have tested atmospheric models by firing rockets into the aurora borealis

Functioning like components of a CT scan, the missiles transmit signals that can be used to identify charged particles and electromagnetic currents in slices. The slices are then combined to construct a computer-based model of Earth's atmospheric structure, which is used to compare the accuracy of physics-based models.

Thermodynamics makes building data centers in space to cool equipment impractical

Rather than cooling via interactions with flowing cold air or water, data centers in space would dissipate energy primarily by radiation, in which an object at any temperature above absolute zero emits light. This method is much less efficient at cooling and would require hyperscale data centers to have radiator panels thousands of times larger than those on the International Space Station.

Creating 'Interstellar's' black hole blended visual effects with real physics models

Theoretical cosmologist Kip Thorne was consulted and collaborated with the film's visual effects team to develop new rendering software, integrate general relativity, and generate ultra-high-resolution visuals. The results were so accurate, they were published in scientific journals.

Earth's core is about 2.5 years younger than its surface according to relativity

Due to differences in where objects are located within gravitational fields, time will run at different rates, which has major impacts on technology that relies on synchronization. For example, GPS satellites run about 38 microseconds faster every day than clocks on Earth's surface, resulting in GPS discrepancies of about six miles, were it not for software corrections.

Comets serve as time capsules of the early solar system

The frozen objects preserve the molecular composition of the solar system's formation, dating back about 4.6 billion years. Spectral analysis of the gases they release when heated upon approaching the sun in eccentric orbits reveals this composition and helps assess solar system formation models.

Electrical grids worldwide must double their power delivery capacity by 2050 to meet surging demand from AI and electric vehicles.

Statcast runs machine learning models in the 23-second gap between every pitch

The same Hawk-Eye cameras that track spin rate, exit velocity, and sprint speed also feed proprietary team models that update in near-real time. Some organizations have built streaming pipelines to surface insights mid-at-bat before the next pitch arrives.

Explore how the grid is being rebuilt for AI, which is expected to double global electricity demand by 2050

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

According to the physics of black holes, our 4D reality may be a hologram—a projection of information coded on a 2D surface on the edge of the universe.

Stars appear to twinkle because turbulence in the motion of molecules in Earth's atmosphere causes light to bend and wiggle rapidly on its way to the surface—a phenomenon called scintillation.

Scientists testing how climate change affects plants found, in a years-long simulation study, that poison ivy grew 70% faster with the resulting extra carbon dioxide.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

While the sun's gravity keeps the planets in orbit, their gravity also pulls on the sun, causing it and everything else in the solar system to orbit around a mutual balance point called the barycenter—the true center of the solar system.

The boiling temperature of water decreases with increasing elevation because the molecules need less energy to overcome the lower atmospheric pressure associated with thinner air.

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

When you complete a CAPTCHA on a website to prove you are human, you may be unknowingly training algorithms for self-driving cars, whose systems require training data to help identify crosswalks, bicycles, and other outdoor objects.

The history of many kitchen appliances involves unexpected discoveries and applications, including wartime radar turned hamster defroster and replacing an 'ice king' with heat-stealing boxes.

English mathematician Ada Lovelace wrote the first computer algorithm a century before computers existed and hypothesized that computing devices would one day be able to compose music—foreseeing the generative AI systems of today.

Radioactive elements can introduce software errors because the ionizing radiation they produce can detach electrons from atoms, and computer code relies on the distribution of electrons.

As of 2025, the most cited papers in science include a review of graphene, methods to improve image recognition, streamlining electron density calculations, and optimizing protein studies.

Massive 3D printers have been used to build homes by stacking layers of 'concrete toothpaste,' a fire-resistant material that effectively insulates against outside noise.

Crows are believed to have intelligence on par with a seven-year-old child and demonstrate complex behaviors, from problem-solving with tools to recognizing human faces.

How Amazon operates a 'flywheel' business model, a self-reinforcing cycle that drives continuous growth

To reduce wrinkles in clothing, research recommends gentle wash cycles with more water and tumble drying with smaller loads and longer times.

Studies suggest when you sleep is as important as how much you get, and syncing with your circadian rhythms may lead to less fatigue and improved long-term health outcomes

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

Coral polyps reproduce via broadcast spawning, where entire reefs simultaneously release reproductive cells for about one hour, once a year.

The syncytiotrophoblast is the outer layer of the placenta and the largest human cell, spanning an area about twice that of a king-sized bedsheet.

Calculate how much of your tax dollars go to each federal program based on your income, filing status, and number of children