An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Bond yields are the returns investors earn from their bond’s interest—and they're a key economic barometer

Bond yields are considered a major indicator of how the US and global economies are doing, and where they’re headed. When bond yields increase, this tends to mean the cost to borrow money is also increasing.

Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

Recessions are often called retroactively, rather than while they’re occurring

Because recessions are recognized when a wide array of economic factors like falling GDP and high unemployment converge, they are often officially recognized after the fact.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates warned of an impending financial crisis

Ray Dalio even presented his concerns to the US Treasury Secretary. In late 2025, Dalio warned of another recession, in line with models he created in his book "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle."

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

Visualizing 40 years of interest rates

The history of interest rates are a proxy of macroeconomic conditions, with higher interest rates indicating periods of decline requiring artificial central stimulation. In a series of charts illustrating rates and their background conditions, you can see the movement of the economy over a forty-year period ending in 2020. Dive into the data here.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase of job losses and high unemployment

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) looks at six key economic indicators, including industrial production, to determine when the economy is experiencing a recession.

Some semi-liquid private credit funds saw a surge in investor redemptions in early 2026

This raised red flags about the state of the private credit market at large. However, experts have cautioned that the idea that private credit is on the verge of collapse is overstated.

Hear why some experts and investors think short selling keeps the market healthy

Despite criticism that short selling incentivizes downturns in the market, many experts and investors say that short selling is a critical aspect of price discovery and market efficiency. These experts and investors say that short sellers help detect fraud and prevent stocks from becoming overvalued.

Herd behavior is one cause of economic bubbles

A video breaks down the core forces behind economic bubbles, illustrating how forces including cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling and a rapid collapse.

The Fed can use quantitative easing to stimulate growth once it has lowered the federal funds rate as far as it can go

This involves purchasing large-scale assets from banks beyond just Treasury bills and bonds. This effectively gives banks much more liquidity, with the hope that they will actively lend it out at cheaper rates and expand the economy. But quantitative easing runs the risk of sparking inflation.

Central bank independence is correlated with lower inflation on average

Executives may seek to influence the central bank to reduce interest rates for political points. Since its creation in the early 20th century, the US' Federal Reserve saw the most interactions from the president during the Nixon and Ford administrations.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

Prices can still feel high even if inflation is slowing

This is partly because a recent spike in inflation raised prices permanently, so even though the pace of price growth has slowed, prices have still gone up for good.

Beyond oil, the Iran war is pushing up costs on fertilizer, prescriptions, and mortgages, too

Gas is up 27% since fighting began, but the Strait of Hormuz also carries a third of the world's fertilizer, petrochemicals used in generic drugs, and helium for semiconductor manufacturing. Mortgage rates have climbed back above 6.4%, and economists warn $130 oil could tip the U.S. into recession.

The S&P 500 has an average intra-year drawdown of -16%

In a given year, the value of the S&P 500 can significantly fluctuate. An intra-year drawdown is the most significant difference between the index's peak and lowest point.

Switzerland's currency is so strong that it could cause deflation

Economic instability in the United States in 2025 strongly benefited Switzerland, where the value of the franc relative to the dollar increased by about 12.7%. In response, the price of imports dramatically decreased, making goods overall much cheaper.

Buffered ETFs are designed to protect investors from market downside while still providing exposure to upside

Investors typically hold them for a defined period before they “reset.” During periods of market volatility, buffered ETFs can seem particularly appealing.

Zero-coupon bonds have no regular interest dates over the length of the loan

Instead, they pay all the interest at once when the bond hits its maturity date. These bonds aren’t the right investment for everyone, but they do carry some pros, like a lower initial investment cost.

Boomerang earthquakes reverse direction and ripple back the way they came

Computer simulations show that rapid changes in friction along a fault where an earthquake has traveled for long distances can produce a smaller quake in the opposite direction. Data consistent with the phenomena has only been recorded a handful of times from 2011 to 2023.

How COVID-19 brought new investors into the market

With fees removed from the equation and more time at home thanks to pandemic-related lockdowns, Americans who had never bought or sold stocks before started participating in the market. Charles Schwab dubs this cohort “Generation Investor” and notes individuals from all age ranges took part in this phenomenon. Study up here.

Dozens of S&P 500 stocks, including Coca-Cola and Walmart—known as the dividend aristocrats—have increased dividends every year for 25 years

See a ranking of the best (and worst) Federal Reserve Chairs since 1914 out of the 16 men and women who have held the office since.

The US dollar is the most widely circulated currency in the world, and is involved in nearly 90% of global transactions

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Discover the catastrophic consequences of a failure of the US electrical grid—something that is more likely than many Americans think.

Some coin denominations have ridges etched on their sides, partly to prevent counterfeiting, in a practice called 'reeding.'

Warren Buffett's former professor Benjamin Graham is known as the 'father of value investing,' a strategy in which investors seek to buy stocks trading below their intrinsic worth.

US housing costs have risen by roughly 175% between 1991 and 2026—but a growing number of Gen Zers are becoming homeowners anyway. In 2025, 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before.

Hurricanes, which rely on air consistently spinning in the same direction, cannot cross the equator because air curves in opposite directions north and south of it.

The 2026 Ebola outbreak is hampered by a lack of vaccine against the species of the virus, heightening the need for rapid tests to aid in disease control.

Netflix profits when you're not watching, and its movies are designed that way—read a detail-rich critical essay exposing lesser-known Netflix takes

A Yale student wrote a profound essay about the consulting industry's influence on elite college students that was published in a book of her writing after she died in a post-graduation car accident.

A century of Billboard issues documenting the evolution of popular music.

Despite being favored by 87% of Americans, Congress does not have term limits.

Budweiser stores yeast derived from the original 1800s strain in a secret bunker, which only the Head of Yeast Management can access—not even the CEO

Explore chaos in this simulation of two double pendulums, where small differences in the release angles produce wildly different outcomes.

Volcanic activity may have triggered the Black Death by spewing gases that led to crop failures in Europe, thus forcing the import of grain ships with plague-infested fleas.

Long before Major League Baseball began allowing instant replay for balls and strikes, an umpire reluctantly used the technology to determine whether a hit was a home run, a move that inadvertently ushered in a new era for the sport.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is independent of Iran's regular army and is one of the most powerful and influential military-political organizations in the Middle East.

Poison ivy can cause rashes year-round since all parts of the plant contain urushiol, the oil that triggers our allergic response.

For centuries, it was common to sleep in two shifts: a few hours at the beginning of the night, and a longer period beginning around midnight

Elk Cloner, the first computer virus to spread in public, was written as a practical joke by Richard Skrenta, a Pittsburgh high school student.

In recent years a child anxiety expert has created and tested a novel phobia and anxiety treatment approach for children, focused on changing how parents respond to the fears.

Artificial coral reefs have been 3D printed from nontoxic, biodegradable terracotta clay, which coral polyps have used as a foundation for rebuilding marine ecosystems.

To reduce wrinkles in clothing, research recommends gentle wash cycles with more water and tumble drying with smaller loads and longer times.