The prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomes

Contract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilities

For example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't.

How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulation

There are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes.

Use a prediction market profit or loss calculator

In order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more.

Prediction markets have faced questions about insider trading

While prediction markets encourage bettors to use their knowledge of a situation to inform their trades, these platforms have faced questions about when this borders on insider trading. For instance, traders on Kalshi can bet on who Taylor Swift's bridesmaids will be—but some worry that it would be unfair for Taylor Swift herself to earn money on that specific bet.

Prediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversial

Critics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions.

Prediction markets convinced regulators they're not gambling, but exchanging commodity futures contracts

Kalshi built a legal case that argues its yes/no bets on real-world events are futures contracts, and the relevant regulator—the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—agreed in 2020. Many states are now suing major prediction markets, arguing this legal case is faulty and obscures the true substance of the business: gambling.

Find out the difference between prediction markets, sports betting, and investing

As one expert put it, "investing is a long-term strategy to build wealth over time, speculation is an attempt to predict the future, and gambling is a game of luck."

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

Prediction market Kalshi's cofounders are former Wall Street traders

Kalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour ​​has described prediction markets as similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not.

What something costs is reflective of a balance in the market determined by the amount of demand relative to the supply of goods and services

Because economies are complex systems, a wide variety of issues influence this balance—including some things generally considered to be positive, like rising wages.

Experts suggest the industry could be a $45B business

Sports betting used to primarily consist of who would win and the points spread, but the rise of online betting apps has fueled a substantial increase in parlay bets. "Existing markets are still growing at a rapid clip," said Noah Naparst, who evaluates sports-betting companies for Goldman Sachs. "So we’re not mature yet, but we’re not in the early wildcat days of the market anymore, either.”

Futures contracts are the primary way commodities are bought and sold

Selling futures contracts protects both parties from future fluctuations in pricing. It allows sellers of commodities to lock in some of their output, even if prices fall. Traders can eliminate some of the volatility inherent in commodities trading via these contracts.

Shorting is a high-risk and expensive investment strategy that hedge funds specialize in

Most investors buy stocks with the expectation that those stocks will be worth more tomorrow than they are today. Short selling, known as “shorting,” a stock is the opposite: The investor is betting the stock will drop in value.

Smart pricing algorithms can unintentionally work together to raise prices

Researchers have found that, through trial and error, algorithms designed to adjust prices based on market data can learn to mimic price-fixing tactics, even without explicit programming to do so. Over time, they "learn" that it is more profitable to avoid price wars and keep prices high when competitors lower prices.

Book building is widely considered the most efficient way to price securities

During the book-building process, bankers determine an IPO’s price per share, requesting bids from fund managers and other institutional investors for the number of shares they want and how much they’d be willing to pay for them.

The stock market's volatility between 2017 and 2025, visualized

The CBOE Volatility Index measures expected stock market volatility using the prices of options on the S&P 500. When traders expect large moves in the market, options prices tend to rise as more options are purchased to bet on the direction of the move.

How did the bull and bear markets get their names?

The terms "bull" and "bear" are used to describe certain sentiments or activities in the financial markets. A bear market refers to declining stock prices and pessimistic outlooks, whereas a bull market represents the opposite.

How NFL teams mistake the values of their draft picks

The NFL draft is a highly anticipated event. Each spring football franchises take turns selecting roughly 250 players over seven rounds. Teams regularly trade draft picks to reach a certain player they expect to fall at their selection point, giving market analysts the ability to determine the value of those trades. This video explores the NFL draft market's inefficiency.

Check the real-time price of bitcoin

Bitcoin has gone through several boom and bust cycles. Those peaks and valleys sit on top of a steadily rising value, growing as the currency gains wider adoption. As of 2024, bitcoin’s total market value was over $1.3T, with more than 19.6 million coins in circulation. Still, the value fluctuates.

Bond yields are the returns investors earn from their bond’s interest—and they're a key economic barometer

Bond yields are considered a major indicator of how the US and global economies are doing, and where they’re headed. When bond yields increase, this tends to mean the cost to borrow money is also increasing.

Hedge funds, the private investment firms that trade a wide swath of financial assets, make money by imposing steep fees on investors and from the fund's investment performance.

Billionaires are racing to space to control future markets

Although different companies have described focuses ranging from luxury tourism to Martian space colonies, all are building infrastructure to capitalize on the shift away from government-only control and betting big on reusability and scale. By securing public contracts and subsidies, they aim to develop strategic partnerships toward dominance in low Earth orbit.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

BNPL companies typically make money via merchant fees rather than interest

When a merchant partners with a buy now, pay later app, consumers are more likely to spend more money with that merchant—meaning that the merchant is willing to pay a small fee in exchange for the ability for customers to pay with buy now, pay later.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

The face value of a Super Bowl ticket rose 136% from 2016-26

At Levi’s Stadium, which first hosted the Super Bowl in 2016, face-value lower-bowl end zone seats increased from $1,800 to $4,250 by 2026, while price tiers expanded and the overall cost of attendance skyrocketed.

Eruption forecasting relies on probabilistic methods resembling weather forecasting

While some volcanoes erupt with predictable signs, such as surface deformation from the build-up of underground magma pressure, others release magma at inconsistent rates. Extensive monitoring is needed to identify less clear patterns and indicators of future eruptions.

SpaceX's S-1 or 'prospectus' revealed many previously unknown details about the company, including its unprofitability despite doing $18.7B in revenue in 2025, exactly how many voting shares Elon Musk will have in the company (roughly 85%), and more.

The price of gas is a composite made up of several different factors, with the federal gas tax making up less than 20% of what drivers pay at the pump.

The 1987 Nintendo video game 'Stadium Events' isn't known for being particularly fun, but its scarcity has made it a highly sought-after item that has sold for up to $35K at auction.

US housing costs have risen by roughly 175% between 1991 and 2026—but a growing number of Gen Zers are becoming homeowners anyway. In 2025, 4% of homebuyers were Gen Z, up from 3% the year before.

Warren Buffett's former professor Benjamin Graham is known as the 'father of value investing,' a strategy in which investors seek to buy stocks trading below their intrinsic worth.

The US dollar is the most widely circulated currency in the world, and is involved in nearly 90% of global transactions

Art theft is the third-largest source of criminal revenues worldwide, thanks in part to the subjective nature of valuing a work of art.

The Nasdaq's 'Magnificent 7' companies are responsible for roughly 40% of the Nasdaq 100 index's gains, while the remaining 93 companies account for the other 60%.

About 2,000 US babies are born annually without some portion of their limbs, potentially leading to a lifetime of pricey prosthetics.

How Amazon operates a 'flywheel' business model, a self-reinforcing cycle that drives continuous growth

This site reaches millions of visitors who are tired of AI chatbots and seeking human connection. Pretend to be an AI chatbot and ask questions, provide answers, and draw for people in real time.

While the sun's gravity keeps the planets in orbit, their gravity also pulls on the sun, causing it and everything else in the solar system to orbit around a mutual balance point called the barycenter—the true center of the solar system.

Researchers believe the brain consolidates memories, processes emotions, and plans for the future during dream states

Use this calculator to find the dollar value of your mental load, from meal planning to coordinating after-school care for your children.

The most expensive ad of all time was for Chanel No. 5 perfume and cost roughly $33M to produce in 2004—about $57M in today's dollars.

Some coin denominations have ridges etched on their sides, partly to prevent counterfeiting, in a practice called 'reeding.'

While El Niño moves warm Pacific Ocean waters east along the equator, La Niña moves them west, shifting where rainfall will become more common for months.

Massive blooms of microscopic plankton called dinoflagellates produce the neon blue light seen in glowing tides.

Some renewable energy sources may weaken the resiliency of electric grids by removing outage buffers provided by coal- and natural gas-fired plants, which provide the system with more time to find a new power source if a plant goes down.

Browse a detailed visual analysis of over 200,000 similes—comparisons that often use 'like' or 'as'—from popular fiction to see how frequently writers the same idiomatic expressions.

Gerrymandering works through two techniques: cracking opposing voters across districts to dilute their power, and packing them into a few to waste their votes in lopsided majorities.

Animal phobias are likely the most common type of phobias, followed by an extreme fear of heights.

See the evolution of Ebola vaccine and treatment development.