The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase in job losses and high unemployment.

Recessions are often called retroactively, rather than while they’re occurring

Because recessions are recognized when a wide array of economic factors like falling GDP and high unemployment converge, they are often officially recognized after the fact.

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

A recession is commonly defined as two straight quarters of shrinking GDP

Recessions are sustained downturns in the economy. They’re significant, widespread, and there’s no single, surefire way to define or predict them.

The unemployment rate is calculated using a monthly survey that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to identify those who are employed or actively looking for work.

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a monthly 'jobs report' that tracks the unemployment rate, the number of Americans currently on payroll, and more.

Over 1.9 million Americans—more than a quarter of those unemployed—have been classified as 'long-term' unemployed in a given month in 2026, meaning they've been out of work for at least 27 weeks.

The US unemployment rate soared to over 24% during the Great Depression, the highest in recorded history.

An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession that’s occurred in the last 50 years

Prolonged yield curve inversions can predict recessions, but even brief inversions can cause investors to react with knee-jerk reactions.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

Experts don't believe upbeat tunes, called 'recession pop,' are legitimate recession indicators

Social media users have begun deeming pop music by the likes of Kesha and Katy Perry a "recession indicator" as they try to predict the next economic downturn.

Why the employment report matters to Wall Street

On the first Friday of every month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the infamous "jobs report." The report essentially tracks how US employment is doing, from the unemployment rate to the number of people in the US currently on payroll. But most importantly, the jobs report has major implications for the economy at large. To find out how this monthly report impacts Wall Street, read this article.

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

US homeownership rates declined from the start of the Great Recession through 2016.

Explore an interactive tool that reveals why Americans are unemployed—almost 30% of unemployed Americans ages 25 to 54 cited being laid off as the reason for their unemployment, for instance.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.

The US youth unemployment rate jumped from 6.6% in 2023 to 10.4% in 2025.

COVID-19's shock to employment rates sparked some economists to fear deflation

COVID-19 simultaneously disrupted the supply chain and the labor market. Since the unemployment rate had hit record highs, some economists were worried that the supply chain would recover before the labor market. If that had happened, businesses would have been producing goods, but no one would have been able to buy them because they wouldn't have the disposable income to do so.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates warned of an impending financial crisis

Ray Dalio even presented his concerns to the US Treasury Secretary. In late 2025, Dalio warned of another recession, in line with models he created in his book "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle."

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

Housing 'starts'— new constructions—signal the health and future of real estate

The Federal Reserve Economic Data, or FRED, tracks monthly “housing starts,” the number of new residential construction projects being built. Some argue this data can serve as an economic barometer.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is among the most famous pieces of economic legislation in the US

In a desperate move to save the economy from the deepening global depression, the US placed tariffs on thousands of goods from abroad. This approach backfired, as many of America’s trade partners took retaliatory measures.

What is the lipstick index?

The lipstick index is an economic theory that breaks down to this: when consumers think an economic downturn is looming, sales for affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up. While it's not an economically proven theory, it's still worth considering. So why do consumers exhibit this behavior? Read more about the lipstick index to find out.

So-called 'recession blondes and brunettes' skip hair appointments to save money

One hairstyle trend is seen as a recession indicator: people letting their hair grow darker roots instead of frequently splurging on expensive blonde highlights.

Unemployment is generally sorted into four different types: frictional, cyclical, structural, and institutional.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

The lifecycle of a financial bubble often follows a predictable pattern

Economist Hyman Minsky originated what became a five-stage model of an economic bubble: a new “displacement,” a rapid boom, euphoric speculation, early profit-taking by insiders, and finally panic selling. From Japan’s 1980s real-estate surge to the 2008 crash, the pattern repeats across eras and assets.

Union membership was 9.9% in 2024, the lowest in nearly 40 years

In 1983, for comparison, 20.1% of the US workforce was unionized, or 17.7 million people.

Winter-risk SAD is more likely in regions above 40 degrees latitude north

Using latitude, depression prevalence, and populations of women and those aged 18-30, this map shows the risk of experiencing seasonal affective disorder during the winter. Researchers weighted latitude most (50%) and demographics least (5% each for women and young adults). Overall risk is not a useful predictor of prognosis for an individual.

This is the longest the US has gone without a minimum wage increase since 1938

The US government hasn’t increased the federal minimum wage in more than a decade. Some people argue it's wrong that Congress needs to debate whether or not to raise the minimum wage—and that perhaps these raises should be tied to inflation.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.