What is the lipstick index?

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

One of LVMH's key business innovations was widening the luxury market's target audience

While certain items under the LVMH umbrella can cost thousands of dollars, like large Louis Vuitton bags, others, like coin purses or lipstick, cost significantly less. Some argue that these comparatively lower-priced items allows LVMH's target audience to be much larger in size than it would have been if it only targeted the world's wealthiest shoppers, whereas others argue that it makes the brand more vulnerable to economic downturns.

Explore 'The Big Mac Index,' an economic indicator created by The Economist as a cheeky reference for the purchasing power of consumers across different countries.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

Leonard Lauder, one of Estée's sons, invented the slant on a tube of lipstick

Leonard Lauder was known for being an innovator, both in business and in product. He's credited with creating the now-standard slant of a lipstick tube, slicing the top off a then-bullet-shaped lipstick to better fit women's lips. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

Check the current Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index is a metric that attempts to capture price changes felt by consumers by averaging a basket of about 80,000 items, each weighted to reflect the impact of changes on households.

The 'Lindy effect' is a theory that says the longer things that don't physically wear out (like ideas, brands, or institutions) have been around, the more likely they are to exist for longer.

Many economists see Black Friday as a litmus test for consumer confidence

Some investors and analysts look at Black Friday’s sales numbers as a way to gauge the overall health of the retail industry—and consumer confidence at large. However, others don’t believe Black Friday results have a particularly significant impact on markets, arguing that the figures only cause short-term gains or losses.

The economics of romance novels

Romance is the publishing industry's most popular genre, with over 44 million units sold in 2025 alone. This episode of "The Economics of Everyday Things" podcast explores how the once-maligned form became the most reliable kind of book in the industry.

Estée Lauder used wealthy people's bathrooms to curate the color of the jars her products were sold in

While Lauder herself was just starting her cosmetics empire, she knew wealthy people who could afford high-quality products would always be her target market. In order to make her products as appealing to this market as possible, Lauder held up different colors of glass bottles in people's bathrooms to see what would look best with their decorations before landing on a turquoise bottle with a gold cap.

Much of Estée Lauder's success stemmed from her laser focus on serving her target market: wealthy women who saw beauty as an investment.

Why there's a snack recession

Inflation and economic uncertainty have driven many Americans to make cuts to their snack budgets, according to reports from major food manufacturers like General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell's. Major retailers have also observed lower-income consumers cutting back on nonessentials due to the macroeconomic environment.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

See every brand that LVMH—the world's largest luxury goods holding company—owns, from luxury fashion and jewelry brands like Tiffany & Co., Fendi, and Louis Vuitton to beauty supply store Sephora and the hotel group Belmond.

'Telephone, telegraph, tell a woman:' Listen to Estée Lauder's legendary vision for word-of-mouth marketing

Without a large advertising budget, Lauder focused her marketing strategy on making high-quality products that women would love enough to tell their friends about. Those friends would later inevitably buy Estée Lauder products.

Economists define deflation as a sustained decline in prices across an economy

Deflationary periods are characterized by broad, significant price declines. The Federal Reserve can monitor deflation by tracking prices through price indexes, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which characterizes the average costs for consumers each month.

Read Time Magazine's profile of Estée Lauder—the only woman named to a list of the most influential business leaders of the 20th century

Time Magazine's 1998 profile of Estée Lauder credited much of Lauder's global success to her incredible work ethic and her dedication to creating the highest-quality products, even if those products weren't trendy.

The Lauder family still controls more than 80% of the voting power in Estée Lauder Companies.

See LVMH's current market capitalization

As of early March 2026, LVMH has a market cap of $292.8B, making it the world's 49th most valuable company by market cap.

An economist answers questions about love

Economists aren't exactly known for their dating advice. But as it turns out, economics experts can offer fresh perspectives to everyday romantic quandaries. On this podcast episode, economist Tim Harford answers listeners’ relationship quandaries, from paying for a first date to alternatives to saying, "I love you." Listen to the episode here.

The 'dupe' economy is fueled by the youthful thrill of thrift

Historically, you don't want people to know you have a knock-off luxury item. But today's younger generations are embracing the "dupe" economy, an open celebration of luxury knock-off items where consumers are proud to pay less for something roughly equivalent to premium brand offerings.

Explore the brands owned by Estée Lauder Companies

While Estée Lauder remains the flagship brand and namesake of the cosmetic conglomerate, the company owns more than 20 premier brands. Some of the brands—like Clinique and Origin—were created in-house, but others—like Tom Ford and Jo Malone—are a result of the company's acquisition strategy, which often targets companies with high-end retail products.

Indicators of economic bubbles include euphoric narratives and extreme valuations.

The psychological aspect of deflation makes it difficult for policymakers to stabilize the economy

That psychological aspect is referred to as "the deflationary spiral." When prices start decreasing, people tend to hold on to their money to pay the lowest prices. But as prices start stabilizing, people resist increasing prices. (Some users may experience a paywall.)

Experts don't believe upbeat tunes, called 'recession pop,' are legitimate recession indicators

Social media users have begun deeming pop music by the likes of Kesha and Katy Perry a "recession indicator" as they try to predict the next economic downturn.

Falling demand and lower costs of production cause deflation

"Falling demand" refers to anything that changes someone's willingness to spend money on goods and services. Global recessions, fears of a worldwide recession, and a fall in the money supply are all factors that could lead to falling demand. Likewise, lower production costs allow companies to increase production, which can lead to a surplus in supply.

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

Experts recommend preparing your finances accordingly if you're expecting to be laid off soon, taking actions such as looking into the cost of replacing employer-sponsored benefits like healthcare.

The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

Dow components are chosen by a committee, not a formula

Unlike many indices, the Dow has no strict rules for inclusion. A small committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices uses judgment—favoring companies with strong reputations, steady growth, and broad investor interest.

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

The Dow’s price-weighted formula makes stock price matter more than size

Unlike most indices, which weigh companies by market value, the DJIA is price-weighted—meaning higher-priced stocks have more influence on its movements. As a result, a company’s share price matters more than its overall size.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP, making Black Friday significant

Lizabeth Cohen, a history professor at Harvard and author of the book “A Consumer's Republic: The Politics Of Mass Consumption In Postwar America,” has argued that the US government has presented consumerism as a way out of economic crisis or decline since around World War II.

So-called 'recession blondes and brunettes' skip hair appointments to save money

One hairstyle trend is seen as a recession indicator: people letting their hair grow darker roots instead of frequently splurging on expensive blonde highlights.

A stock index is a group of companies clustered together, often providing a condensed snapshot of a market segment.

In a 'K-shaped' economy, higher earners' spending rises while lower earners' spending stagnates or decreases.