Recessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standards

Recessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task.

The men’s underwear index predicts recessions based on men’s underwear sales

Internet users have been using some nontraditional indicators to predict whether a recession is imminent, including the return of so-called “recession pop.”

Markets have always recovered and hit new highs following crashes

The crash that preceded the Great Depression was the most severe the US has ever experienced. It was 28 times worse than the downturn that followed the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Bond yields are the returns investors earn from a bond's interest—and they're a key economic barometer.

In 2007, Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, warned of an impending financial crisis.

A V-shaped recovery from a recession is the most common kind

When charted, recession recoveries resemble letters including V, U, W, L, and K. For instance, an L-shaped recovery involves a steep decline that slowly reverses.

When consumers think an economic downturn is looming, the 'lipstick index' economic theory argues that sales of more affordable luxury items (such as lipstick) go up.

The US has been through 34 recessions since 1854

From 1855 to 2020, the average US recession lasted for an average of 17 months. But in the 20th and 21st centuries, the average recession length has shortened, decreasing to 14 months.

One theory suggests real estate markets follow a predictable 18-year pattern

The theory dictates that real estate markets tend to experience about 14 years of growth, including a mid-cycle dip, then experience four years of decline. Real estate experts in London discuss the theory in an article.

Read about why bans on short selling are a controversial policy

Generally, short selling is legal, but regulations often restrict short positions when a stock has experienced a sharp price decline (more than 10% in one day). However, negative feedback loops in times of financial crisis have given short selling a bad reputation. The government has temporarily banned short selling during previous market downturns—like The Great Recession of 2008 and the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic—but experts argue whether those bans actually improved market stability or just distorted prices.

The lifecycle of a financial bubble often follows a predictable pattern

Economist Hyman Minsky originated what became a five-stage model of an economic bubble: a new “displacement,” a rapid boom, euphoric speculation, early profit-taking by insiders, and finally panic selling. From Japan’s 1980s real-estate surge to the 2008 crash, the pattern repeats across eras and assets.

A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, but in practice, these economic phenomena are more complex.

Read about the evolution of the S&P 500 and its recession recovery

Since the S&P 500 is considered a bellwether index (meaning it represents the health of the US economy), its value is important for investors in both bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 has been impacted by recessions and downturns, from the 1970s oil crisis to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s.

US inflation can generally be split into to two periods—before and after the Federal Reserve

A central bank itself does not mean significant inflation will occur, but economists generally point to factors like two world wars and the printing of money to finance the US federal deficit as primary drivers of price increases.

What are Treasury yields?

Treasury yields are the interest rates that the US government pays to borrow money for different lengths of time. Specifically, Treasury yields are interest rates on US government debt. They reflect economic outlooks and inflation expectations. Learn more about Treasury yields here.

Roughly $5T of stimulus money flooded the economy during the pandemic

Recessions can last anywhere from months to years. To encourage economic growth, governments use policy levers such as lowering interest rates or introducing a stimulus. Economists credit massive stimulus funds for helping the economy quickly recover from a recession during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The clearest sign of a recession is a steady increase in job losses and high unemployment.

Investors collectively own $28T in US Treasury securities

The 10-year Treasury yield is a central measure of the health of the economy, shaping how much both the government pays on its debt and the cost of borrowing for the private sector. This explainer provides stats and explainers on the important metric.

'Good deflation' happens when prices naturally track with supply, meaning prices change gradually

This tends to make products and services more affordable and normalizes the standard of living. Bad deflation usually happens when there are sudden changes to either supply or demand. Near-zero [interest rates helped create the real estate bubble that sparked the Great Recession when it crashed](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMo9mD8j7IA&t=91s) Because deflation distorts the value of money, deflation is particularly harmful for borrowers. Low interest rates made it easy for businesses and everyday people to take on enormous debt, which exacerbated the effects of the recession.

One signal that a recession has become a depression? When GDP declines more than 10%

There’s no single definition for recessions or depressions, but both are marked by sustained periods of declining economic activity. Depressions are more severe than recessions.

Investing in bonds comes with a few risks

Think: changes in interest rates that impact the bond’s value, or a bond issuer completely defaulting on a loan. There are steps investors can take to lower their initial and future risk when investing in the bond market, such as checking a company's bond rating before investing.

Learn about what causes economic bubbles, including how forces like cheap credit, soaring optimism, and feedback loops push asset prices far beyond fundamentals—until a single shock triggers panic, selling, and a rapid collapse.

The stock market has crashed many times throughout history

Have you ever wondered how long it takes the market to recover after a crash? This chart outlines major stock market dips throughout history and tracks how many days it took for the market to recover.

There's no single definition of an economic recession, though recessions are commonly identified by two consecutive quarters of shrinking gross domestic product.

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed began a program of quantitative easing

This program injected trillions of dollars of new money into financial markets to stimulate the economy. The move catalyzed an 11-year bull run and was repeated during the pandemic. Experts argue such power could worsen wealth inequality and contribute to bubbles in housing and finance.

Some semi-liquid private credit funds saw a surge in investor redemptions in early 2026

This raised red flags about the state of the private credit market at large. However, experts have cautioned that the idea that private credit is on the verge of collapse is overstated.

Interest rates have historically been an indicator of the US economy's overall health.

Raising interest rates can help control inflation

While controlling a complex and dynamic economy is difficult, interest rates—more specifically, the rate at which banks lend each other money overnight—are a powerful tool. Generally, raising the rate makes purchases more expensive and cools an overheated economy.

In 2023, the US money supply fell at its fastest rate since the 1930s

The money supply tracks how much cash, as well as electronic funds like savings accounts, is circulating through the economy. And a downward turn can be a bad sign.

The Great Depression is one of history's most notable periods of deflation

The stock market crash of 1929 helped trigger a period of deflation in the United States by creating a drastic decrease in the total money supply. Because of the United States' central role in the world economy, virtually every single country was impacted by the recession.

The world's most famous case of deflation happened after Black Thursday

While the details are not fully agreed upon, many economists point to the Federal Reserve's tightening of the money supply as a prime culprit, leading to a significant deflationary spiral.

Visualizing decades of stock market performance

Stock markets and the indexes that track their biggest companies tend to ebb and flow, with long growth periods punctuated by shorter recessions. Track the 60-year history of one of the most common stock market indexes, the S&P 500, with this data visualization. The chart highlights the long-term durability of markets despite appearance of short-term volatility.

The Sahm rule attempts to predict recessions based on unemployment trends.

Some experts and investors think short selling—a strategy in which investors bet that a stock will drop in value—helps keep the market healthy.

In a 'K-shaped' economy, higher earners' spending rises while lower earners' spending stagnates or decreases.

Experts recommend preparing your finances accordingly if you're expecting to be laid off soon, taking actions such as looking into the cost of replacing employer-sponsored benefits like healthcare.

The Federal Reserve fought the Great Recession primarily with quantitative easing and repurchasing agreements.

Experts don't believe upbeat tunes, called 'recession pop,' are legitimate recession indicators

Social media users have begun deeming pop music by the likes of Kesha and Katy Perry a "recession indicator" as they try to predict the next economic downturn.

The Federal Reserve can set interest rates below zero

Interest rates, the cost of borrowing money, are the primary tool the Federal Reserve uses to control inflation. During periods of deflation, setting interest rates below zero penalizes saving, encourages banks to lend more and moves more cash through the economy.