What is the cone of uncertainty?

The cone of uncertainty predicts where a hurricane's center can potentially travel

A common misconception is that regions beyond the cone are safe, but the spread does not depict the full reach of a cyclone's wind, rain, or storm surges. The cone is not built from real-time storm data but is an average forecast error from the past five years.

What does the hurricane forecast cone really tell us?

Ever feel like hurricane forecasts change a lot? Hurricane forecast tracks might not mean what you think they do. Concentric circles are actually used to help form the forecast. Chief Meteorologist Bobby Deskins explains how you should really be reading these cones.

All hurricanes have a central eye where no extreme weather phenomena take place

When standing in the eye of a hurricane, you're likely to experience sunny, cloudless skies surrounded by a wall of intense winds and thunderstorms. The physics behind this formation is the same as what causes water to spiral around a hollow cone as it goes down a drain.

A list of common questions and answers about hurricanes from NOAA

This FAQ answers many questions hurricane researchers at NOAA have received, sorted by category. The answers provide insights into hurricane classification and naming, forecasting their movement and growth, and tips for preparing ahead of landfall.

Check out hurricane history where you live

The NOAA's historical hurricane tracker lets you explore over 150 years of data to see where hurricanes traveled and made landfall. The tool lets you search by location, name, or year; create maps and tables; and read NOAA storm reports.

The way hurricanes are categorized may mislead the public to their dangers

The Saffir-Simpson scale categorizes hurricanes based on wind speed, but tropical cyclones' main dangers are storm surges and heavy rainfall. To better communicate risks to the public, a new system that incorporates hurricane size, water content, and other complexities should be developed.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Hurricanes can grow by replacing their eyewall

A second outer eyewall can form around the primary eyewall surrounding a hurricane's eye. During an eyewall replacement cycle, the outer wall can weaken, collapse, and replace the inner wall, temporarily weakening the storm before it strengthens and grows.

The NOAA has a specialized team of researchers that fly directly into hurricanes

The reconnaissance missions gather data for computer models to forecast hurricanes and improve disaster preparedness. Each flight can last eight to ten hours and uses a specialized Air Force fleet.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Fast-changing conditions during their formation make tornado forecasting difficult

The final steps of tornadogenesis—the process of forming a tornado—depend on near-surface details, such as local geography, which are difficult for radar to observe and affect how funnel clouds make contact with the ground. Inconsistencies in storm behavior have limited the amount of advance warning people receive before tornadoes touch down.

Small elevation differences drastically protect homes in hurricanes

The construction of seaside homes has long involved building residences on elevated stilts, but this feature adds costs—and some elevated homes still fail. Explore the engineering behind the ideal height of a hurricane-proof building.

Visualize the path of every solar eclipse from 1900 to 2099 and see what each looks like when observed from different locations on Earth.

Dust from the Sahel and Saharan regions makes northwest Africa a hurricane nursery

NASA’s Convective Processes Experiment—Cabo Verde studied the early stages of hurricane formation, identifying how dust interacts with clouds over the ocean to produce the rainy disturbances that become tropical cyclones.

The total cost of weather and climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 is almost $3T

The NOAA’s Office of Coastal Management tracks the cost of damage, deaths, and other key statistics related to hurricanes and weather disasters. In 2024, there were 27 billion-dollar disasters, each averaging $1.2B more in damage than the prior five-year average.

Unlike hurricanes, tornadoes are not ranked based on measured wind speed

Technological limitations prevent direct measurements of wind speeds where tornadoes make contact with the ground. Instead, the Enhanced Fujita scale assigns a rating with a range of speeds based on how much damage a tornado caused to various types of structures. These types are more extensive than the original Fujita scale.

In Doppler radar imaging, a 'hook echo' helps identify a tornado-producing thunderstorm

Typically found in the right-rear part of a storm relative to its motion, the "hook" is the hallmark of a mesocyclone—a large, rotating updraft of air—within supercells, the most powerful thunderstorms. While tornadoes are known to develop within mesocyclones, they can also be detected by storm spotters trained to recognize tornado conditions in their communities.

Eruption forecasting relies on probabilistic methods resembling weather forecasting

While some volcanoes erupt with predictable signs, such as surface deformation from the build-up of underground magma pressure, others release magma at inconsistent rates. Extensive monitoring is needed to identify less clear patterns and indicators of future eruptions.

Hurricane conditions are created in a University of Miami wind-wave tank

The SUrge-STructure-Atmosphere INteraction Wind Wave Laboratory contains a 38,000-gallon wave pool connected to a wind tunnel that can generate air currents of up to 155 mph. SUSTAIN allows scientists to study how the atmosphere interacts with the ocean in extreme weather.

The event horizon is an inescapable sphere around a black hole singularity

The horizon is often surrounded by an accretion disc of superheated material that orbits the black hole while emitting radiation. Light emitted behind a black hole can be bent around it to create the appearance of a ring of material known as a photon sphere.

Scientists use ground-based radar data to detect turbulence within clouds

NCAR developed the NEXRAD Turbulence Detection Algorithm and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system to provide forecasts up to 18 hours ahead using ground-based Doppler radar data. Software systems also utilize an automated observation and reporting package—the EDR system—found on Delta, United, and Southwest Airlines aircraft.

NASA monitors potentially hazardous asteroids and comets

Established in 2016, the Planetary Defense Coordination Office characterizes and tracks asteroids and comets passing within 30 million miles of Earth. Over 40,000 near-Earth asteroids have been discovered, although estimates suggest that about 14,000 more such objects remain to be found.

Flood recurrence intervals are based on independent probabilities

The term "100-year flood" does not mean the event will only occur once every 100 years, but it has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. Soil saturation, watershed size, and urban development can impact flood severity.

Tracking the accuracy of past and future predictions of the apocalypyse

Religious figures, scientists, technologists and others have long heralded the ending of the world in what in some traditions is called the apocalypse. This site tracks those failed predictions in the past and charts those coming up in the future.

What is a heat dome?

The world is seeing regular heat waves with multiple causes, including so-called "heat domes," a term rising in use in recent years. A heat dome occurs when the atmosphere traps hot ocean air like a lid or cap, creating stifling conditions and resulting in extended periods of heat. See an illustration of this phenomenon and read how it works with this brief explainer.

The CME FedWatch Tool predicts the likelihood of future rate changes

It's based on federal fund futures contract prices. At a Fed meeting in July 2024, for instance, Chair Jerome Powell once again decided not to lower rates, though he said cuts could be on the table in September.

Calculate your risk of developing cancer

Hosted by the National Cancer Institute, this tool provides interactive charts that display the likelihood of dying from various causes—including cancer—based on factors like age, sex, race, and smoking status. By contextualizing cancer risk among other potential health threats, users can create custom charts.

What is the Overton Window?

The concept of the Overton window is an excellent framework through which to analyze why politicians talk (or avoid) certain topics and policy positions, and how ideas change over time as societal attitudes evolve.

Reported earthquake magnitudes change as more data refines initial estimates

Initial magnitudes are based on limited information, while final magnitudes account for factors like fault size, rupture duration, and seismic wave behavior. Larger earthquakes have the most complex seismic wave activity and often require the most time to finalize recorded magnitudes.

A prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential election

The idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more.

Visualizing changes in ocean temperatures between 2016 and 2020

How much does the temperature of the sea change in a given year? This visualization helps illustrate the changes by showing sea surface temperature data from January 2016 through March 2020. Sea surface temperature, which refers to water temperature at the sea's surface, plays a significant role in climate and weather.

Visualize chaos with the orbit of three or more objects bound by gravity

In this simulation, users can simulate randomized and preset orbital configurations for up to 10 celestial bodies to observe the system's evolution in an interactive 3D space. The same configurations can produce different orbital behavior—a feature of chaos—by making small changes to an object's mass under advanced settings.

Every tropical storm is named from one of six predetermined lists

The lists of names are reused every six years and are maintained by the World Meteorological Organization. If a named storm becomes significant, its name is retired and replaced on the list.

As of 2025, the world's largest tropical cyclone spanned half the continental US

Typhoon Tip traveled across the western Pacific Ocean in 1979, achieving winds of 300 kilometers per hour. Though it weakened significantly before making landfall in Japan, its rainfall produced over 600 mudslides and killed 42 people.

All rainbows are 'raincircles' caused by water droplets separating white sunlight into a spectrum of colors, but Earth's surface blocks the bottom half of the circle from our line of sight.

How jet streams and US weather are affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Jet streams are predominantly west-to-east air currents in the atmosphere that mark the boundary between cold polar air and warm tropical air, where cells of atmospheric circulation meet. By disrupting the location of these circulations on two- to seven-year cycles, ENSO alters the probability of droughts, floods, and above- or below-average temperatures across the US.

Earth’s tilt and orbit cause the sun to create a figure-eight pattern

The shape—called an analemma—can be obtained by photographing the sun from the same location and time daily for a year. The Earth's eccentricity created the analemma's width, and its tilt shifts the sun's height in the sky over the seasons.

LIGO boosts its signal sensitivity by manipulating quantum uncertainty

According to the uncertainty principle, the amplitude, or height of a wave's peak, and its phase—the point in time when the first peak is observed—are inversely linked. Based on the frequency of the gravitational waves of interest, scientists sacrifice precision in one optical property to reduce noise in another.

Wildfire containment requires trenches, natural barriers, or burned land

Containment refers to creating a perimeter around a fire that it is unlikely to spread beyond. However, full containment does not mean the fire is extinguished. Strong winds can cause fires to jump containment lines, including 10- to 12-foot-wide trenches or thin rivers.

How scientists study Earth's geocorona, the farthest portion of the planet's exosphere

Seen via ultraviolet radiation scattered by neutral hydrogen in the region, observations by the ESA/NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory indicate that the geocorona extends roughly 50 times Earth's diameter above its surface. At this distance, the geocorona extends beyond the Moon's orbit.

How to build curiosity

Change and uncertainty induce stress, but reframing the unknown into an opportunity for discovery has tangible benefits. Approaching change with curiosity enhances activity in the hippocampus and promotes neuroplasticity, promoting learning and serving as a barrier against anxiety. A neuroscientist explains how embracing the unknown, trying small experiments, and other techniques build curiosity.

Visualize the anatomy of a comet

The solid nucleus holds the frozen molecules, which are heated into a gaseous state once the comet is within three times Earth's distance from the sun. The surrounding coma, from which comets get their name, is a spherical cloud that can grow larger than Jupiter, from which tails develop.

Meteorologists believe they know the weather that inspired the terror behind Munch's painting 'The Scream'

Helene Muri, a meteorologist at the University of Oslo, believes the clouds causing the man such terror are nacreous. "We do know that there were mother-of-pearl clouds in the Oslo area in the late 19th century," she said, though she was careful to note that it was still a hypothesis.

Uncertainties in measurements make finding gravity's Newtonian limit unclear

Although Newton's "universal" law is unreliable in strong gravitational fields when compared with the field equations of general relativity, it is still taught for its accuracy on everyday scales. However, gravity's effect on small scales is too weak to be measured reliably, its accuracy at atomic scales remains unknown.

See the real-time numbers of ships traversing the canal each day

This platform uses satellite data to track chokepoints and trade disruptions along the shipping lanes that crisscross the globe. Search for data from more than 1,600 ports, or run the climate scenario simulator.

Watch a tsunami warning system provide real-time alerts across the Pacific

This visualization of the GUARDIAN monitoring software depicts its detection and transmission of natural hazard signals from the magnitude 8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula earthquake on July 29, 2025. The first detections occurred 32 minutes before the earliest tidal impacts, demonstrating the system's potential to save lives by expanding response time windows.

What's the difference between weather and climate?

A five-minute TedEd video exploring the differences between weather and climate – what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

The ultraviolet catastrophe is the infinite energy prediction of classical physics

When scientists first tried calculating the radiation emitted by a heated object, their assumption was that energy was equally distributed across wavelengths and produced infinite energy at low wavelengths. This contradicted observations, which showed near-zero energy intensity at those values.

The Council on Foreign Relations maps conflicts to watch in 2026

This interactive map highlights conflicts to watch in 2026, rating each by likelihood and potential impact and allowing users to explore detailed background on every potential hotspot.