Influencers, Prediction Markets, and Stocks After Elections

Often regarded as 21st-century socialites, "influencers" are generally defined as people who have developed a significant and engaged following on at least one social media platform. A growing number of brands—from Coca-Cola to small businesses—pay influencers to promote their products or services on social media. Online platforms including YouTube, Substack, and Twitch also offer revenue shares for their top creators.

> The creator economy is projected to be worth as much as $480B by 2027. (More, w/video)
> The difference between influencers and content creators. (More, w/video)

The earliest digital influencers were likely the "mommy bloggers" of the early 2000s. These women wrote blogs about parenthood that soon proved lucrative when they began securing advertising deals. Since the 2010s, marketers have been steadily increasing the amount of money they dedicate to influencers. Paying an influencer to promote a product can read as more authentic than other marketing channels (such as billboards or online pop-up ads), given that many social media users already implicitly trust the influencers they follow.

> In 2004, Heather Armstrong became one of the first mommy bloggers to run ads on her blog, sparking outrage. (More)

> The Instagram account chronicling influencers' craziest antics. (More)

Fans of influencers say the rise of these social media stars has benefited women, as becoming an influencer allows mothers to earn money from home on a flexible schedule. Influencer critics, however, note that the profession is not as lucrative as it seems—only 12% of full-time creators make more than $50K a year, according to one recent study. They also argue that influencers have fueled the rise of social media addiction among teens and children.

> 97% of creators should not launch their own brands, per one expert. (More)

> Male influencers make roughly 30% more money than female influencers on a per-post basis. (More)

Discover more: 

> There are "YouTube camps" that teach children as young as 6 how to create content for the platform. (More, w/video)

> The US military has used influencers to help boost recruitment numbers. (More, w/video)

> Inside the college course at Duke teaching students how to be influencers. (More)

🫶 Humankind: New Jersey high school students recently filled their entire football field with groceries to replenish local food banks.

 News in Context 

1440 brings you the knowledge and context behind the week's stories:

Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, began resuming withdrawals in phases Sunday after hackers stole $6.3B in crypto from Binance wallets. (More)

> A simple explainer of what happened at Binance.

> Lack of regulation makes cryptocurrency a hotbed for money laundering.

Major US stock indexes rallied in early trading on Wednesday morning after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, with the S&P 500 up about 1.2% shortly after the open. (More)

> See how the S&P 500 performed throughout the first 100 days of each modern presidency. 

> Do stocks rise or fall after elections? 

New survey analysis revealed that 49% of US families in the top 1% of household incomes had three or more children, compared with 40%-43% for most other income groups, reversing the long-standing trend of lower-income families having more children on average. (More, free w/email)

> The birth rate in South Korea remains low, despite government fertility incentives.

> Why do family fortunes disappear?

Insurance premiums will rise by 13% next year for those covered by the Affordable Care Act, according to a new data analysis published last week by the healthcare nonprofit KFF. (More)

> The number of uninsured patients increased by almost 21% from 2025, hospitals announced in July 2026. 

> The cost of covering family health insurance has tripled in 20 years.

One Story We're Taking Stock In

In recent months, celebrities from LeBron James to Timothée Chalamet have been popping up in ads for prediction markets like Kalshi—platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes, such as elections. For the prediction markets themselves, the move makes sense: Almost 40% of respondents to a recent poll who were at least vaguely familiar with the platforms viewed prediction markets as "bad for society," so it follows that these companies would want to partner with trusted and beloved celebrities to build credibility. 

What's more difficult to determine, however, is why so many A-listers—who ostensibly have enough money to pick and choose which ads they appear in—are agreeing to hitch their wagons to controversial prediction markets.

Before the internet age, it wasn't as common for A-list American celebrities to appear in domestic ad campaigns. But today, when every celebrity is "constantly shilling," as the author of the feature story below (which was among my favorite reads of the week) points out, it's more difficult to point to any one celebrity’s payday as particularly egregious. To learn more about what's motivating the Sydney Sweeneys of the world to say yes to these ads, keep reading at the link below.

> Do celebrities endorsing prediction markets not have enough money already? (Read)

> Why prediction markets are controversial. (1440 Topics)

 Etcetera 

> About 43% of projects experience budget overruns.

> The riskiest places to use your debit card.

> What is the S&P 500's average annual return?

> Cathie Wood is among the most famous figures in ETF investing.

> The rise and fall of Beanie Babies.

> Visualize the difficulty of getting into every Ivy League college.

> The former NASA engineer who pitched remote work in the 1970s.
 

> Five myths about annuities.

> Warren Buffett once called famous ad man David Ogilvy a genius.

> For every $100 you deposit, your bank puts a few cents in the FDIC insurance fund.

> Elon Musk's first company was an online business directory called Zip2.

> The gig economy, explained.