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Prediction MarketsPrediction markets are platforms where people can trade bets that pay out depending on certain event outcomes. On many modern online prediction markets—which are often powered by blockchain technology—users can bet on almost any future event, from who will win the Super Bowl to the contents of a public company's earnings report. These platforms have experienced a surge in popularity in recent years, with global trading volumes more than quadrupling from $15.8B in 2024 to roughly $63.5B in 2025.
People have been betting on the outcome of events like elections since at least the 1500s. However, three economists in Iowa—who were seeking an alternative, market-based solution to the shortcomings of political polls—are credited with creating the first modern prediction market in 1988. Today, the two most popular prediction markets in the US are the online platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
Although legislation around prediction markets is still nascent, these platforms are increasingly subject to state gambling laws in the US. Some have suggested that insider trading—which is explicitly forbidden on the stock market—should be similarly prohibited on prediction markets.Explore Prediction Markets
What we've found
How prediction markets differ from sportsbooks matters for regulationThere are a number of differences and similarities between sportsbooks and prediction markets, despite both allowing people to bet on outcomes for sports-related events. For instance, prediction markets typically earn revenue through transaction fees rather than taking directional exposure to outcomes. Sports IllustratedThe 2024 US presidential election was a breakthrough moment for prediction marketsFounded in 2018 by MIT graduates, Kalshi won a federal appeals court ruling in October 2024 that allowed it to offer election contracts in the US. When prediction markets predicted President Donald Trump's win (more accurately than most polls), prediction markets were thrust into the public eye. KPMGThe CEOs of the two top prediction markets have a fierce rivalryKalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan are both billionaire CEOs of the top two prediction markets—but they don't exactly get along. For instance, Mansour reportedly does not say the word "Polymarket" out loud, referring to it as the "non-American, unregulated platform." NPRPrediction markets help people bet on almost anything—which can be controversialCritics point to incidents such as traders placing bets on the Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's capture and the two people in Israel who were charged on suspicion of using classified information to place bets about military actions. The ConversationPrediction markets have faced questions about insider tradingWhile prediction markets encourage bettors to use their knowledge of a situation to inform their trades, these platforms have faced questions about when this borders on insider trading. For instance, traders on Kalshi can bet on who Taylor Swift's bridesmaids will be—but some worry that it would be unfair for Taylor Swift herself to earn money on that specific bet. Wall Street JournalContract prices on prediction markets are generally interpreted as implied probabilitiesFor example, if a contract trading is at $0.65, that could be read as the market assigning a 65% probability to that event occurring. The most common format for prediction markets is winner-take-all: The contract settles at $1 if the event occurs, or $0 if it doesn't. Modern prediction markets started in Iowa in 1988The University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets were introduced during the 1988 US presidential election. The beginning of their origin story almost sounds like a joke: Three economists walked into a bar. NBC NewsThe prices on prediction markets reflect how the collective forecasts future outcomesOn prediction markets, bettors bid up or down the price of contracts based on what they expect an event's outcome to be. Bettors bid up prices when they think an event is more likely to occur than the current contract price shows, so they buy the contracts, pushing the price higher. They bid down prices by selling these contracts when they believe an event is less likely to occur, driving the price down due to supply and demand. InvestopediaSome experts equate prediction markets to the new crack cocaine of gambling addictionAn addiction psychiatrist at UCLA says betting apps are far more potent than traditional gambling, citing a 19-year-old patient who lost $180,000 and hadn't left campus in a year, cycling through sports bets, crypto, meme stocks, and prediction markets on his phone. This interview explores the extreme edge of the nascent industry. NautilusPrediction markets have their own lingo that's an amalgamation of Gen Z and Gen Alpha slangFor instance, if you've been out-maneuvered by another trader, you've been "mogged." A "rulescuck" is someone who is a stickler for betting market rules and may try to win on a technicality. NPRSports betting is regulated by the SEC, but 'prediction markets' for sports are notSites like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to make bets on sports outcomes, though their positioning (as prediction markets, not originally intended for retail investors) helps them avoid the scrutiny of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Instead, they under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Some worry that the lack of oversight has encouraged insider trading, putting everyday users at a severe disadvantage and potentially corrupting the integrity of professional sports. Citation NeededHow chaos helps explain why small market corrections can produce major economic instabilityOxford University complex systems professor Doyne Farmer discusses how predictions from many economic models are overly weighted toward simple relationships, such as supply and demand, and external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, real-world macroeconomic systems involve public and private actors interacting, producing feedback loops and cascading effects that resemble the oscillatory behavior seen in chaotic systems. UnexplainableFrom 1991 to 2024, lithium-ion battery cell prices have fallen by 99%The decrease from about $10,000 to $50 per kilowatt-hour has been driven by innovations in battery chemistry, improvements in manufacturing and supply chains, and increases in global cumulative production, which have caused average price declines of 19% each time it has doubled. Our World in DataView the five most expensive metals used to make batteriesBefore 2021, when lithium carbonate became the most expensive metal for use in electric vehicle cathodes, cobalt was the most costly battery metal. Of the top five, copper is the only metal not used in cathodes, arguably the most important part of the battery, which determines performance, longevity, and range. Visual CapitalistAmerican Express is targeting Gen Z, who are generally less risk-averse than older generationsUnlike Millennials, who grew up during the Great Recession in 2008, Gen Z has a higher risk appetite and has grown up with more gamified spending platforms, like online gambling and prediction markets. Analysts say Gen Z's risk appetite makes them prime targets for credit card companies like American Express that can sell younger customers on large benefits in exchange for annual fees. FortuneDonald Trump's Truth Social social media platform is launching a prediction marketNamed "Truth Predict," the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will allow users of the Truth Social social media platform to place crypto bets on the outcome of certain events (think: sports games, the economy, and political races). Truth Social is primarily owned by President Donald Trump and his family. WIREDInsider trading is the practice of trading a company's securities based on material, nonpublic information"Material, nonpublic" information is essentially any undisclosed information that could have a substantial impact on an investor's decision to trade a security. While the practice is strictly prohibited on the stock market, it's now being discussed regarding less-regulated but increasingly popular prediction markets. InvestopediaKalshi announced a partnership with CNN in 2025The partnership included an integration of Kalshi's prediction markets data across CNN's network programming. For instance, certain TV segments on CNN could show a scrolling banner detailing the odds of event contracts on the exchange. Yahoo FinanceUse a prediction market profit or loss calculatorIn order to calculate how much someone would make from a specific trade on a prediction market, this calculator asks for the purchase price of a given "yes" or "no" prediction, the number of contracts the trader plans to purchase, and more. NerdWalletPrediction market Polymarket's CEO dropped out of New York UniversityPolymarket CEO Shayne Coplan started building Polymarket when he was 21. Polymarket has been backed by billionaire investors such as Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin. 60 MinutesA prediction market was more accurate than most polls about the 2024 US presidential electionThe idea that the median estimate of a group can be more accurate than individual expert estimates is called the "wisdom of the crowd," and dates back to the early 1900s. This theory can help explain the perceived value of prediction markets when it comes to polling and more. Prediction market Kalshi's cofounders are former Wall Street tradersKalshi's CEO Tarek Mansour has described prediction markets as similar to the stock market—except instead of buying and selling shares of companies, users buy and sell "yes" or "no" on whether an event is going to happen or not. CBS Sunday MorningCollege sticker prices are often misleading1440's editor-in-chief chatted with an economist in this podcast episode to unravel how college tuition really works, who carries the biggest debt, and why the system feels expensive. 1440Cyrus McCormick invented the mechanical reaper—and a territory-based sales forceIn the 1830s, farmers were skeptical of new technology, so McCormick demonstrated the machine—described as a cross between a plow, a chariot, and a flying object—to prospective buyers. Long before modern sales norms existed, he divided the market into territories operated by agents who provided service on the machines, financing to expand the customer base, and product iteration based on feedback from regional agents. The QuotaKalshi is the first regulated prediction market in the USTwo migrant MIT students, Luana Lara Lopes and Tarek Mansour, shared an interest in hedging against uncertainty—from election outcomes to the Oscar awards. They fought hard for regulatory approval and their company now has a valuation in the billions. The platform has brought prediction markets into the mainstream. Tech Funding NewsIn 2024, global ad spend surpassed $1T for the first timeOrganizations like GroupM and WARC began predicting this record high in 2023. Five large tech companies (Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Alibaba, and TikTok parent ByteDance) were predicted to account for more than half of all global ad spend in 2024. Marketing BrewFremont, Ohio, produces over one billion pounds of Heinz ketchup every year, often sending the smell of the condiment through the small cityMost of the United States' Heinz ketchup is produced at the northeast Ohio plant, which has been open since 1937. MidstoryBP only makes up about 1% of global oil production after many misstepsBP’s market cap has never recovered from the dive it took following the 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill. This video details some of BP’s corporate missteps along the way. YouTubeThe 'Wicked' movies turned an already-successful Broadway show into a behemothThe production was already one of the most successful in Broadway history, but the release of the first movie kicked it into overdrive: It grossed 15% more in 2024, the year "Wicked: Part I" was released, than the previous year, bringing in more than $112M. The New York TimesThe Wrights’ patent battles delayed the development of aviation technology in the USBy the time World War I began in 1914, the US was lagging behind European powers in aviation. This stemmed primarily from wars over patents between the Wrights and competitor Glenn Curtiss. The pair argued their 1906 patent covered all mechanisms enabling lateral flight. National Park ServiceAdvent calendars have become a major seasonal driver for brandsCompanies now treat Advent calendars as key holiday products, expanding production as demand surges across categories. Retail data shows beauty and self-care calendars consistently rank among the most popular, as some brands report selling out yearly, and retailers order months in advance. Modern RetailGerman printer Richard Sellmer revived Advent calendars after World War IIAdvent calendar production resumed in 1946, when German printer Richard Sellmer began issuing nostalgic winter-town designs that became classics, later exporting them to the United States. His company still operates today, producing more than 140 varieties. Sellmer AdventskalenderIt is impossible for astronauts to burp in spaceDue to Earth's gravity, liquids and solids sink in our digestive system, while gases rise, allowing them to be forced back up the esophagus to be expelled through burping. In the microgravity environment of the International Space Station, burping would result in vomiting if it were possible. QuartzUnderstanding the differences between capitalism and socialismThe two economic systems are rarely found in their pure form. Capitalism emphasizes private property, capital accumulation, and limited government regulation, while socialism favors government control of production to meet the needs of everyone rather than to generate profit. Most economies are a mix of both. InvestopediaSuperbugs could claim 1.9 million lives per year by 2050The increased use of antibiotics combined with an aging population, is projected to result in an almost 50% increase in global deaths from antimicrobial resistance each year. At the same time, antibiotic use for livestock is expected to increase by 30% over the same time frame. NatureHow K-pop conquered the worldHow did Korean musical acts go from unpopular and at times maligned to filling arenas and creating one of the most viral music videos of all time? This 25-minute audio documentary from BBC World Service explains how social networks, plastic surgery, and government tax breaks helped turn K-pop into the multibillion-dollar global juggernaut we know today. BBC NewsA moldy cantaloupe supercharged penicillin productionIn 1943, a moldy cantaloupe found at a market in Peoria, Illinois, yielded a strain that produced six times more penicillin. Though often credited to lab worker “Moldy Mary” Hunt, accounts differ on who actually brought in the fruit.
USDAThe McIntosh apple, long dominant, is now 10th-most popular in the USFirst grown in Ontario, Canada, in 1795, the McIntosh became synonymous with the apple by the early 1900s. Newcomers on the market—especially the Honeycrisp in the 1990s—has nearly rendered the McIntosh irrelevant. The HustleOil prices have been volatile for decadesThis explainer shows oil’s rollercoaster: OPEC-led embargoes in the 1970s, shale surges in the 2000s, and the US flip to becoming a net oil exporter in 2020. InvestopediaIn 2016 OPEC and 10 major producers—including Russia—launched OPEC+OPEC+ emerged in 2016 when 10 additional producers, including Russia, joined to stabilize markets amid U.S. shale growth. In 2022, OPEC alone supplied 38 % of global crude oil, but combined with OPEC+, output reached nearly 59 % of world production—significantly amplifying its market power. US Energy Information AdministrationIran-Iraq war drained over $1T from the combined economies of Iran and IraqAcross eight years (1980-88), Iran and Iraq each lost about $500 B in GDP, infrastructure destruction, military expenses, disrupted oil exports, and mounting debt—totaling over $1 T in economic damage. TheCollectorIran’s 1979 revolution sparked a second oil shock—and reconfigured global energy marketsWidespread strikes in Iran’s oil sector during the 1978-79 revolution slashed production and triggered panic buying, flooding oil markets with fear. BrookingsThe 1967 war was the first use of oil as a geopolitical weaponFollowing the June 1967 Arab–Israeli war, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Libya, and Algeria embargoed oil shipments to the US, UK, and West Germany. While the move did not have a large impact, it reshaped global oil flows, and foreshadowed OAPEC's later actions. BrookingsThe forgotten campaign to replace the Teddy Bear with 'Billy Possum'After a 1909 pre-inauguration dinner for incoming President William Howard Taft featured possums and potatoes as the main course, Susie W. Allgood wanted to produce and market an alternative to the Teddy Roosevelt-inspired teddy bear: Billy Possum. Kids thought it looked too much like a rat. Smithsonian MagazineRecessions are considered to be inevitable by modern economic standardsRecessions are caused by imbalances in the market and are guaranteed to happen in capitalist systems, but predicting them is a complex task. McKinsey & CompanyIn recent years, Hollywood studios have reevaluated their Comic‑Con presenceComic-Con’s impact on the movie industry may be diminishing. In 2025, major studios—including Marvel, DC, Lucasfilm, Sony, Paramount, Legendary, and Lionsgate—scaled back Comic‑Con participation. They cited high costs, timing that didn’t align with release schedules, and limited marketing impact in a crowded promotional landscape. ComicBookMovie.comWhy US chocolate tastes weird to the rest of the worldChocolate flavor varies worldwide due to different recipes, production methods, and consumer preferences. US chocolate is known for being particularly sweet, often consisting of high sugar, corn syrup, and vegetable fats—giving it a slightly sour note unfamiliar to many Europeans. American chocolate also tends to be thicker and filled. DWLessons learned from Steve JobsFrom predicting our screen-filled future in 1983 to slashing Apple’s product line in 1997, Steve Jobs believed in focus, simplicity, and the fusion of technology and art. His philosophies still influence how products are built and marketed today. 1440Elon Musk joined Tesla in 2004, investing $30M and becoming chairThe company went public in 2010, raising $226 million in its IPO just two years after beginning production on its first car. Tesla’s first Supercharger stations were launched in 2012 with six locations in California. TheStreetA centrally planned economy is one where the government—not markets—sets productionThis Investopedia article explains how command economies work, which countries have used them, and why even market-based nations like the US sometimes adopt tools such as rationing or price controls during wartime or national emergencies. Investopedia
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