The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

A map of extreme weather events and their links to climate change

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. Read more about the findings from the comprehensive analysis.

What types of extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

For decades, it was impossible to say that a specific weather event was caused, or even made worse, by climate change. But advanced research methods are changing that.

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

The science on the connections between extreme weather and climate change

The new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the science of climate change lands in the aftermath of a series of deadly extreme weather events around the world.

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

Scientists use climate proxies—physical, chemical, and biological materials preserved in sediments, ice, and fossils—to infer historical climate data and determine past climate patterns.

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have contributed to global warming

A 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that such emissions were responsible for approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius (2.0 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since 1850-1900. Without rapid, large-scale reductions in emissions, temperatures are expected to continue to rise, leading to more extreme weather events.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Scientists can determine Earth's past climate conditions by analyzing air trapped in microscopic bubbles within ice cores—columns of compressed snow layers that build up over hundreds of thousands of years.

Climate science 101: climate change, its impacts, and potential solutions

How do we know that this warming is happening and that it’s caused by humans? How strong is the evidence? What risks can we expect and what can we do about them?

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

The simplest models assume uniformity across the Earth, with incoming energy from the sun being offset by the planet's albedo, or reflectiveness, which prevents the radiation from being fully absorbed. Incorporating elements such as atmospheric layers, latitude bands, geographic variability, and emissivity yields coupled differential equations quantifying Earth's interconnected systems.

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

The greenhouse effect was discovered by analyzing Earth's temperature

Using mathematical techniques developed to analyze heat transfer, Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier showed that Earth should be significantly cooler if solar radiation were the only contributor to its surface temperature. By considering that the atmosphere could amplify the sun's warming effect, he formulated what became known as the greenhouse effect.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity accelerate recent global warming

These gases exacerbate the greenhouse effect—warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. The most abundant atmospheric greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is released from the burning of fossil fuels.

How is the climate like baseball?

A two-minute video taking a lighthearted look at an unexpected analogy, explaining why some people call carbon dioxide (and the other greenhouse gases) the steroids of the climate system.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

What are climate models?

Climate modeling what is a global climate model? What are their uses? Why do we believe them? What do they agree on? Why do they disagree? How do we improve them?

How Earth's 'greenhouse effect' works

The so-called "greenhouse effect," where various gases in Earth's atmosphere trap heat from the sun, is a crucial factor in our planet's ability to sustain life. It's also pivotal in discussions over humanity's impact on changes in the Earth's...

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

Rapid environmental changes are exacerbating natural extinction processes

Human activities behind climate change, habitat destruction, pollution, and overhunting have resulted in extinction rates up to 1,000 times greater than normal, triggering massive biodiversity loss. This has led scientists to refer to the current geological age as the Anthropocene era, in which humans are the dominant force shaping nature.

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

Climate determinism wrongly linked human traits and societal progress to geography

Historically rooted in Greek philosophy, its ideas used the latitudes where people were located to justify racial hierarchies, casting tropical peoples as lazy or inferior. These biases still influence how media and research portray people in climatically disadvantaged regions. (Some readers may experience a paywall.)

The origin of atmospheric science while testing nuclear weapons during the Cold War

The arms race between the US and the Soviet Union saw both countries stockpiling and detonating hundreds of bombs underground, underwater, and in the atmosphere. To better predict where nuclear fallout would travel after these tests, scientists developed models that would serve as a foundation for those used to explain atmospheric circulation.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence

Severe turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the past 40 years, driven by strengthened jet streams and storm systems. Ongoing increases in global temperatures, which fuel these changes, may triple severe turbulence incidents in the coming decades.

Scientists can determine Earth's past environmental conditions by analyzing sediment cores—accumulated layers of mud and remains of charcoal, pollen, plants, algae, and other organic material.

What's the difference between weather and climate?

A five-minute TedEd video exploring the differences between weather and climate – what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

Climate tipping points are irreversible changes to Earth's environment

Earth's natural systems have prevented these events—including the mass death of coral reefs, loss of the Amazon rainforest, and shutdown of Atlantic currents—but scientists believe they are unlikely to withstand continued stressors from climate change.

Why David Attenborough was skeptical about global warming before bringing attention to it

Believing he was "experiencing the untouched natural world" in his early documentary series, Attenborough has admitted that many of his assumptions about human action were incorrect. It was not until attending a 2004 lecture on greenhouse gases and global temperatures that he became convinced of the science.