What are climate models?

Global climate models simulate Earth system interactions and how human activity impacts climate

By splitting the planet into tiny 3D grid cells, supercomputers can run thousands of equations for each cell to determine the movement of energy, moisture, and other elements across Earth. The equations can also incorporate greenhouse gases to determine how humans affect the climate.

How accurate are climate models?

RealClimate: A new paper from Hausfather and colleagues with the most comprehensive assessment of climate model projections since the 1970s. Bottom line? Once you correct for small errors in the projected forcings, they did remarkably well.

Climate models use complex equations and supercomputers to predict future climate

The equations apply the laws of thermodynamics, fluid motion, and radiative transfer to a 3D grid along Earth's surface. After solving them for each cell in the grid over a time interval, the results carry over to neighboring cells, and the process repeats into the future.

Climatologists use past data and advanced models to forecast future climate trends

Unlike meteorology, which focuses on weather forecasting over several days, climatology identifies trends in data over periods of 30 or more years. This data can go back millions of years and help refine models to forecast centuries into the future.

Accurate climate models incorporate calculus to account for complex feedback loops

The simplest models assume uniformity across the Earth, with incoming energy from the sun being offset by the planet's albedo, or reflectiveness, which prevents the radiation from being fully absorbed. Incorporating elements such as atmospheric layers, latitude bands, geographic variability, and emissivity yields coupled differential equations quantifying Earth's interconnected systems.

Explore hindcasting on climate models published since 1972

Hindcasting tests model forecasts against observational data to determine their accuracy. In this interactive, you can learn about the differences between eight climate models and evaluate them against available climate data.

Climate data is monitored globally using tools from satellites to backyard gauges

Scientists use satellites, balloons, ocean buoys, and land-based instruments to track climate variables like temperature, precipitation, and wind. These tools gather data from deep ocean waters to the upper atmosphere.

Clouds' subtle climate effects require significant computational power to simulate

Responsible for reflecting sunlight and preventing thermal energy from entering the Earth system while also trapping energy and keeping it in the system, clouds are understood to substantially influence climate predictions. Because even supercomputers struggle to accurately model their dynamic behavior, researchers have used AI to indirectly incorporate clouds into climate models.

Explore a series of interdisciplinary explainers on climate science

From animations on the quantum mechanics of greenhouse gases to a photo essay on how scientists acquire climate data, this collection provides detailed explorations of how different branches of science have contributed to our understanding of climatology.

Scientists use climate proxies—physical, chemical, and biological materials preserved in sediments, ice, and fossils—to infer historical climate data and determine past climate patterns.

What's the difference between weather and climate?

A five-minute TedEd video exploring the differences between weather and climate – what they are, how we predict them, and what those predictions can tell us.

Climate science 101: climate change, its impacts, and potential solutions

How do we know that this warming is happening and that it’s caused by humans? How strong is the evidence? What risks can we expect and what can we do about them?

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

View the 55 ECVs used to describe Earth's atmospheric conditions

Essential climate variables include physical, chemical, and biological variables that meaningfully contribute to Earth's climate and how it changes with time. Many of these variables influence one another through feedback mechanisms across Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere.

Explore a simulation of the greenhouse effect

Investigate how cloud cover, surface albedo—a measure of a surface's reflectiveness—greenhouse concentrations, and atmospheric layers affect the energy balance on a simulated planet. Using either the wave or particle models of light, users can also explore how changes in solar intensity affect planetary surface temperature.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

How is the climate like baseball?

A two-minute video taking a lighthearted look at an unexpected analogy, explaining why some people call carbon dioxide (and the other greenhouse gases) the steroids of the climate system.

Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

AI-powered models can provide low-cost, localized and accurate weather forecasting

These models can run on standard laptops, reducing the need for expensive supercomputers and expanding access to developing regions. AI forecasts can help farmers make informed planting decisions, improving crop yields and reducing costs.

Discover trends in Earth's climate system: What are indicators of climate change?

A comprehensive deep dive tracking components of the climate system over time, such as temperature, sea level, sea ice amounts, ocean heat, greenhouse gases, and more (w/charts and graphs).

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

Explore how temperatures compare to historical averages in cities worldwide with this interactive global monitor.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

The weather time machine

A fun interactive on how old ships’ logs are giving scientists new insights into the past and future of the Earth’s changing climate (w/maps and pictures).

Chaos theory—informally known as the butterfly effect—is the reason why weather forecasts are presented with probabilities rather than certainties.

What should you eat to help the climate?

Climate change is impacted by what we eat and what we don't eat. Did you know, for instance, that livestock accounts for 14.5 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases each year? Eating less meat and dairy and more protein-rich plants like beans,...

What types of extreme weather can be attributed to climate change?

For decades, it was impossible to say that a specific weather event was caused, or even made worse, by climate change. But advanced research methods are changing that.

Simulate the effects of government policies on climate projections

The En-ROADS tool lets you role-play as a global decision maker to explore the long-term effects of various policy ideas on climate. More than 341,000 people worldwide, including over 130 members of Congress, have used the simulation.

How does climate change impact hurricanes?

Statistical relationships between sea surface temperature and hurricanes, analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane records, analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics, and more.

A map of extreme weather events and their links to climate change

To track how the evidence on this fast-moving topic is stacking up, Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date. Read more about the findings from the comprehensive analysis.

How salt, sunlight, and wind drive ocean currents

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation plays a critical role in regulating earth's climate, but is threatened by climate change. Explore the effects of temperature, density, and salinity on ocean currents in this 13-minute PBS video.

Explore an interactive visualization of greenhouse gas emissions from 745 million sources worldwide.

Meteorological v. astronomical seasons, explained

Meteorologists and climatologists define seasons differently from “regular” or astronomical spring, summer, fall, and winter. Traditional seasons reflect the movement of celestial objects, known as the astronomical seasons; meteorologists mark seasonal change based on temperature averages.

Watch a visualization of how Earth's oceans impact its atmosphere, weather, and climate.

Scientists have tested atmospheric models by firing rockets into the aurora borealis

Functioning like components of a CT scan, the missiles transmit signals that can be used to identify charged particles and electromagnetic currents in slices. The slices are then combined to construct a computer-based model of Earth's atmospheric structure, which is used to compare the accuracy of physics-based models.

The Köppen-Geiger system divides Earth’s climate into five main categories

This classification system, developed by a German-Russian botanist and a German climatologist, results from differences in the intensity of solar radiation and rainfall in different parts of the world. Each category is further divided into multiple coded zones.

When testing climate models, computer simulations suggest that Middle-earth should be covered by forests—matching a description in 'The Lord of the Rings'—and that Westeros's long winters in 'Game of Thrones' may be linked to a wobbling planet.

B2 models the interactions of air, water, soil, plants and microbes at the LEO

The Landscape Evolution Observatory at Biosphere 2 examines how factors such as climate change, water flow, weathering and community development impact landscape structures comprising 500 metric tons of crushed rock. Research is also conducted at biomes representing savannas, mangroves, coastal fog deserts, oceans and rainforests.

Anthropic's interpretability team discusses how AI models' thinking mimics biology

Just as humans engage in complex behaviors to survive and reproduce, teams of experts in neuroscience, virology, mathematics, and other disciplines argue that large language models develop complex mechanisms to achieve their goals. These mechanisms can be manipulated to assess how they modify outputs—much like stimulating individual neurons—to uncover how LLMs "think."

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

Sets incorporating immersive mixed reality have transformed weather reporting

The technology enables presenters to step into virtual environments that incorporate 3D models and real-time data, providing more engaging and interactive forecasting. They have also facilitated the development of educational segments where meteorologists use virtual models to explain complex weather phenomena.

Just as large language models are trained on text to enable generative AI systems to mimic natural language, automated AI robotic systems are trained in virtual environments to help them 'learn' about the properties of reality.

Why is sea level rising?

Rising global sea level is one of the most commonly cited consequences of climate change, but it’s often unclear how it might affect people living on the coasts. Read this explanation of why global sea level is rising and why sea level rise happens at different rates in different locations.

Climate change is influencing the spread of disease

Rising temperatures and water levels are forcing animals and pathogens beyond their typical boundaries. This article and its data visualizations explore the proliferation of climate-driven diseases.

Watch a visualization of global ocean currents from NASA's Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean project.

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

How flooding the Dead Sea could help the climate

There are many dead zones in the world with low elevation and very little rainfall that provide little to no benefits to the ecosystem or climate. This digestible, thorough article explains how piping in nearby water to flood these areas could...

Visualize real-time and historical atmospheric conditions from around the world

This tool provides live maps of wind, rain, thunderstorms, and other atmospheric phenomena overlayed on an interactive map of the Earth. Users can enter their location to explore local atmospheric dynamics and review historical weather conditions dating back to 1979.

Model context protocol allows large language models to connect to external data

Using a unified interface, MCP simplifies how AI systems securely connect to external data, tools, and services. The protocol enables AI agents to perform tasks without ongoing human refinement or updates to manually integrate new data.

Explore an interactive global weather map, with overlays depicting real-time data on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and pressure, which enable the tracking and monitoring of extreme weather events.