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Ceasefires rarely produce a total cessation of violence.

Findings

Additional insights we found via 1440 Originals

  1. An analysis by The Economist tracked over twelve thousand violent events surrounding nine major ceasefires in the Middle East.

  2. The analysis found that while fatal incidents dropped by an average of 81% in the month after a truce, not a single one produced a total cessation of violence.

  3. Agreeing to a ceasefire with the intention of eventually resuming the war could be a strategic decision for one or both sides.

  4. Armies can use ceasefires to recalibrate and rearm, while allowing both sides to engage in small-scale violence to test their adversary's willingness to fight and to create additional leverage in negotiations.

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