Understanding the 1.5 degree Celsius climate benchmark

As more parts of the world are facing extreme weather, from high temperatures to increased natural disasters, there is much debate about what can be done. MIT News explores and explains the 1.5-degree benchmark for limiting the effects of climate change. Read to understand where the planet stands in relation to this threshold and what can be done at the global, regional, and personal levels to “keep 1.5 alive.”

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities have contributed to global warming

A 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that such emissions were responsible for approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius (2.0 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since 1850-1900. Without rapid, large-scale reductions in emissions, temperatures are expected to continue to rise, leading to more extreme weather events.

The Montreal Protocol helped prevent significant quantities of greenhouse gas emissions

By phasing out ozone-depleting chemicals between 1990 and 2010, the Montreal Protocol prevented emissions equal to 135 gigatons of CO₂—avoiding an estimated 0.5 to 1 degrees Celsius of additional global warming by 2100.

Climate tipping points are irreversible changes to Earth's environment

Earth's natural systems have prevented these events—including the mass death of coral reefs, loss of the Amazon rainforest, and shutdown of Atlantic currents—but scientists believe they are unlikely to withstand continued stressors from climate change.

A UN-led treaty may establish rules to phase out plastic globally

With support from more than 175 nations, a treaty led by the United Nations is being negotiated to establish enforceable global rules for plastic production and pollution by 2025. Negotiations come as the total amount of plastic in the ocean has increased by 50% from 2017 to 2022.

View when each UN member signed the Montreal Protocol

Adopted in 1987 to phase out ozone-depleting substances, the agreement achieved universal ratification by all 197 UN member states, making it the first and only such international treaty in the UN's history.

Yearly greenhouse gas emissions have been steadily increasing since 1850

Although greenhouse gases include methane, nitrous oxide, and most fluorinated compounds, their warming potential is often measured relative to carbon dioxide. In these units, greenhouse gas emissions have gone from 4.29 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 1850 to 54.43 billion metric tons in 2024.

Without greenhouse gases, Earth's average surface temperature would be below freezing

Atmospheric molecules that absorb and emit infrared radiation from the planet's surface effectively trap additional incident solar energy that would otherwise escape to space. Without the greenhouse effect, the planet's average surface temperature would be approximately -18 degrees Celsius (0 degrees Fahrenheit).

Climate science 101: climate change, its impacts, and potential solutions

How do we know that this warming is happening and that it’s caused by humans? How strong is the evidence? What risks can we expect and what can we do about them?

The impact of greenhouse gases is assessed as a measure of Global Warming Potential

Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has used GWP to measure how much energy 1 metric ton of a gas emits over a given period—usually 100 years—relative to 1 metric ton of carbon dioxide. By definition, carbon dioxide has a GWP of 1.

How amendments to the Montreal Protocol have expanded global ozone protections

Since 1990, five major amendments—London, Copenhagen, Montreal, Beijing, and Kigali—have accelerated chemical phase-outs, added new substances, such as hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and tightened enforcement.

Earth has shifted between extreme warming and cooling phases for 500 million years

Earth is in an interglacial period of the Quaternary glaciation, resulting in receding glaciers and mild temperatures. However, today's warming trend is occurring much faster than previous warming periods in the climate record.

The ozone layer is on track to recover to pre-1980 levels by mid-century

Thanks to the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is steadily recovering and, according to a 2022 assessment, is expected to return to 1980 levels by 2040 globally, 2045 over the Arctic, and 2066 over Antarctica.

Carbon dioxide acts as a 'control knob' for Earth's climate

Although Earth's ice ages were primarily triggered by slow changes in the planet's orbit—known as Milankovitch cycles—these changes do not explain the extreme temperature swings during glacial periods. Carbon dioxide acts as a feedback mechanism, intensifying both cooling during ice ages and warming during their ends by reinforcing the initial changes sparked by orbital shifts.

The history of the Montreal Protocol, the only universally ratified treaty in UN history

Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland discovered that chlorofluorocarbons released chlorine atoms that could break down molecules making up the protective ozone layer. Despite attempts to discredit scientists and economic concerns raised by politicians, the agreement to phase out ozone-depleting substances was signed in 1987.

Arctic permafrost may store twice as much carbon as the entire atmosphere

Rising greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to continue to increase average global temperatures and threaten to thaw ground that has been frozen for thousands of years. The release of greenhouse gases from remnant organic matter would exacerbate the greenhouse effect, creating a positive feedback loop.

What should you eat to help the climate?

Climate change is impacted by what we eat and what we don't eat. Did you know, for instance, that livestock accounts for 14.5 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases each year? Eating less meat and dairy and more protein-rich plants like beans,...

Bill Nye believes a World War II-level mobilization is needed to end climate change

As part of his science advocacy efforts, Nye has argued that existing technologies, including electric vehicles and renewable energy, can already significantly reduce emissions. However, switching to these technologies requires a more expansive awareness of the problem and a greater sociopolitical willingness by policymakers and the general public.

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity accelerate recent global warming

These gases exacerbate the greenhouse effect—warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. The most abundant atmospheric greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is released from the burning of fossil fuels.

Explore Earth's future climate under different levels of warming

An incredible interactive project showing how global warming is projected to affect the world, from temperatures to rainfall, droughts and flooding, and more.

Carbon markets incentivize companies to cut emissions but require high carbon prices

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a cap-and-trade system issues a limited number of emissions permits—carbon credits—that decrease each year, cutting into a company's profits if it does not reduce emissions and must buy permits from others. However, cheap permits and minimal fines for lacking permits have reduced the system's effectiveness.

View an illustrative guide to climate change for kids

While climates have changed throughout Earth's history, they are now changing faster than usual, driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the release of greenhouse gases, which trap more of the sun's radiation.

Why a Montreal Protocol amendment cut back on the replacements for CFCs

Hydrofluorocarbons were introduced in the 1990s as ozone-safe substitutes for chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. However, scientists later found that they trap thousands of times more thermal energy in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide does, prompting a 2016 amendment to the Protocol to phase them out.

The field of attribution science seeks to determine whether specific phenomena, such as melting glaciers, droughts, and hurricanes, are driven by Earth's natural climate cycles or by human-caused climate change.

In 2025, UK scientists began studying climate data from a 1.5-million-year-old ice core

The Antarctica sample will be melted and analyzed in Cambridge to learn about prehistoric environmental conditions. Researchers hope the ice core reveals how Earth's glacial cycles shifted dramatically around 800,000 years ago.

The world's wealthiest 10% are responsible for 48% of greenhouse gas emissions

An analysis by the International Energy Agency found that in 2021, the top 1% of emitters each produced over 50 metric tons of carbon dioxide, over 1,000 times the amount produced by those in the bottom 1%. The average energy-related carbon footprint, including household heating and electricity use, was about 4.7 metric tons per person.

Understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is affected by climate change

An analysis of El Niño and La Niña patterns from 1901 to 2020 suggests that anthropogenic warming—global warming caused by humans—has at least partly contributed to increased ENSO variability in recent decades. While ENSO increases the likelihood of droughts and flooding across different regions, researchers say these severe weather events are made more extreme by greenhouse gas emissions.

Geothermal power may meet 15% of global electricity demand growth through 2050

According to the International Energy Agency, the estimate would require the construction of geothermal capacity with an annual output equivalent to the combined electricity consumption in the US and India in 2024. The report suggests geothermal investment will reach $2.5T by 2050, with the integration of fracking technologies decreasing costs by 80% by 2035.

How the Montreal Protocol supported developing nations in phasing out ozone-depleting substances

Established in 1991, the Multilateral Fund for the Montreal Protocol finances developing nations' transition to cleaner technologies. It has disbursed more than $4B across more than 140 countries and was the first financial mechanism created under an international treaty.

Excluding water vapor, greenhouse gases make up less than 1% of Earth's atmosphere

Although carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and most fluorinated gases account for only a minority of the planet's greenhouse effect due to their lower concentrations, they are more effective at trapping thermal radiation. While water vapor condenses within two weeks, other greenhouse gases linger in the atmosphere for years on average.

The science on the connections between extreme weather and climate change

The new report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the science of climate change lands in the aftermath of a series of deadly extreme weather events around the world.

While hurricane frequency has not increased over the past century, average hurricane intensity has, which scientists attribute to rising air and ocean temperatures.

Explore which sectors produce the most greenhouse gas emissions by country

As of 2023, the energy sector, including electricity and heating, accounts for the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions. The 10 largest greenhouse gas-emitting nations account for two-thirds of global emissions, with the world's top three—China, the US, and India—contributing 15 times more than the bottom 100.

Learn why the Montreal Protocol may help prevent millions of cancer deaths

By restoring the ozone layer and reducing ultraviolet exposure, full implementation of the Montreal Protocol is expected to prevent about 443 million cases of skin cancer, 2.3 million skin cancer deaths, and 63 million cases of cataracts among Americans born from 1890 to 2100.

Climate models have predicted sea level rise almost perfectly since the 1990s

The rise in sea levels is primarily due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, and predicted levels have been confirmed accurate by satellite observations. Ocean currents influence regional variations in sea level rise, which are expected to accelerate.

Nitrous oxide is the third most significant greenhouse gas made by human activities

Emissions of this molecule increased 40% from 1980 to 2020, with atmospheric concentrations reaching levels higher than at any other time in the last 800,000 years, based on ice core records. Its warming potential is 273 times that of carbon dioxide over 100 years and remains in the atmosphere for more than a century, on average.

How greenhouse gases and climate change impact the efficiency of photosynthesis

A review in the Journal of Experimental Botany found that higher temperatures reduce the efficiency of enzymes involved in photosynthesis and impair a plant's ability to control water loss and regulate carbon dioxide uptake. While increased carbon dioxide levels are understood to accelerate plant growth by boosting photosynthesis, researchers suggest these effects more than offset the potential gain.

Fluorinated molecules are the most impactful, longest-lasting greenhouse gases

Developed as replacements for ozone-depleting substances in refrigeration and air conditioning systems, these compounds are released through leaks in and ongoing use of these appliances, as well as from various industrial processes. They can remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years and have warming potentials that are a thousand to tens of thousands of times greater than those of carbon dioxide.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of severe turbulence

Severe turbulence over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the past 40 years, driven by strengthened jet streams and storm systems. Ongoing increases in global temperatures, which fuel these changes, may triple severe turbulence incidents in the coming decades.