7 experts debate China's role in the future of the rules-based international order

This interactive feature showcases opposing arguments—from scholars who view China as a major threat to the order, to Chinese analyst Wu Xinbo's argument that China will shape the order's evolution rather than destroy it.

China's relationship to the rules-based order is contested

In this piece, Paul Gewirtz, a professor of constitutional law at Yale Law School, argues that China has been a beneficiary, a rule-bender, and an increasingly assertive challenger of the rules-based order, aiming to revise norms it sees as reflecting Western rather than universal values.

Renewed competition between great powers is straining multilateral institutions

This analysis argues that the increasing US-China rivalry is fostering a more contested international environment—where shared rules and institutions are being challenged rather than reinforced.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine accelerated fractures in the rules-based international order

This piece examines how the Ukraine conflict intensified underlying divisions in the global order—between Western democracies and the Global South, and between rule-of-law norms and great-power politics.

John Mearsheimer argued that the liberal international order was bound to fail

University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer argued in his influential essay Bound to Fail that expanding liberal democracy and open markets into other great powers' spheres inevitably leads to conflict, and that the liberal order contains the roots of its own collapse.

During the Cold War, the rules-based order was largely limited to the West

The Soviet Union and its allies operated outside the Bretton Woods institutions, meaning the postwar liberal order functioned as a regional rather than a truly global system. This changed with the USSR's collapse in 1991.

Much of the Global South responded to the Russia-Ukraine war by pursuing a strategy of 'active nonalignment'

Boston University scholar Jorge Heine suggests that countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America are avoiding taking sides between Washington and Beijing—viewing the rules-based order as increasingly unresponsive to the needs of developing nations and considering the West's framing of the war irrelevant to its own interests.

The world is shifting from unipolarity toward a multipolar order

The post-Cold War world was briefly unipolar after 1991, with the US standing alone as a global superpower following decades of US-Soviet bipolarity. Analysts increasingly describe today's order as multipolar, with China, Russia, the US, and regional powers all competing for influence.

After the USSR's fall, many experts believed liberal democracy had permanently prevailed

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama argued in 1992 that liberal democracy and market capitalism had defeated their ideological opponents and would eventually spread everywhere—a thesis he called "the end of history." Subsequent decades complicated that claim.

Some experts argue that Russia was never effectively integrated into the rules-based order after 1991

This piece argues that Russia's difficult relationship with the IMF and World Bank in the 1990s—characterized by economic shocks and perceived Western condescension—helped shape Moscow's later hostility toward the liberal order.

A legal scholar argues that the existing war powers framework may collapse in the event of a major power conflict

The legal tests presidents have used to avoid seeking congressional authorization were designed for weaker adversaries. This piece argues that those tests fail against similarly armed competitors, where even limited strikes risk significant escalation, potentially triggering a constitutional crisis over who has the authority to respond.

The world reached historic levels of democracy under the rules-based order, though that trend has reversed

The share of democracies worldwide grew dramatically from the mid-20th century, reaching an all-time high in the early 2010s. Since then, the trend has reversed, with an increasing number of countries experiencing democratic backsliding.

The failures of the interwar period made the case for a new international system

After World War I, countries devalued their currencies, raised tariffs to block imports, and seized territory unchecked, with the international community unable to organize effectively to stop them. The result was a global depression and, eventually, another world war.

Relationships between countries have become more peaceful since the rules-based order was established

Our World in Data monitors bilateral relationships on a spectrum from open rivalry to "positive peace"—deep cooperation and mutual protection. In 1945, no countries had highly cooperative security relationships. Today, nearly a fifth do.

Four Cold War hawks warn: Nuclear weapons still threaten the world

Despite the Cold War's end, the US and Russia still hold 95% of the world's nuclear weapons—many on hair-trigger alert. In this 2010 documentary, top former officials urge urgent action to reduce and eliminate the threat.

Since World War II, formal declarations of war and peace treaties have become increasingly rare, replaced by cease-fires, authorizations of force, and "special military operations."

Experts argue that nuclear war is more likely than is commonly believed

The podcast highlights that many of the world's roughly 12,000 nuclear weapons—capable of triggering global collapse and nuclear winter—remain on high alert. Experts warn that this status, combined with limited public awareness, makes nuclear war disturbingly plausible.

Hardline China critics in the US worry that China's Belt and Road Initiative is a Trojan horse for military expansion efforts

The Belt and Road Initiative, initially launched in 2013 to develop trade routes throughout Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, has evolved into a larger infrastructure development initiative in developing countries. The BRI is backed by the Silk Road Fund, which is administered by the two most prominent Chinese sovereign wealth funds.

Critics argue that the World Bank, IMF, and WTO were designed to serve Western interests

Some analysts from developing nations argue that the Bretton Woods institutions were designed to reinforce Western economic dominance rather than to promote fair development for poorer countries. Supporters respond that these institutions have improved living standards worldwide.

Arguments for returning to a gold standard reappear from time to time

However, critics argue that globalization has made the gold standard impractical for modern economies, as it limits a nation’s ability to have a flexible monetary policy—hence, none of today's governments have a gold standard.

Hear Ray Dalio's principles for navigating a changing world order

Dalio argues that there aren't new events in history, per se, and that people are taken by surprise by events because they just haven't happened in their lifetimes—not because they are actually novel.

How chaos helps explain why small market corrections can produce major economic instability

Oxford University complex systems professor Doyne Farmer discusses how predictions from many economic models are overly weighted toward simple relationships, such as supply and demand, and external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, real-world macroeconomic systems involve public and private actors interacting, producing feedback loops and cascading effects that resemble the oscillatory behavior seen in chaotic systems.

The World Bank, IMF, and WTO all face calls for structural reform

Researchers argue that all three major institutions face legitimacy and effectiveness challenges, including outdated governance structures, unequal voting power, and difficulty adapting to a more multipolar world.

Wartime conferences exposed cracks in the US–Soviet alliance

At the Tehran, Yalta and Potsdam Conferences, Allied leaders coordinated WWII strategy—but deep disagreements over postwar Europe foreshadowed the Cold War. The USSR’s push for influence in Eastern Europe clashed with US and British calls for self-determination.

Questions about the US' commitment to its allies may have sparked a new nuclear age

Some US allies—from Warsaw to Seoul—are reevaluating their security amid doubts over American nuclear commitment, signaling the possibility they may want to acquire their own weapons.

The global nuclear arms regime has slowly eroded over the past few decades

Both Russia and the United States have withdrawn from key Cold War-era arms-control pacts. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point, as it suspended its participation in inspections and data-sharing agreements.

History shows what’s wrong with the idea that war is ‘normal’ in the Middle East

An old trope claims that war is ‘normal’, innate, and inevitable in the Middle East. However, the history of the region reveals complex and civilized systems of coexistence. Empires found economic and political strength in fostering diversity;...

Lessons from the 1973 energy crisis still echo in today’s geopolitical battles over oil

The video from the Economist highlights how energy supply disruptions can be weaponized—just as in 1973, today’s gas cutoffs (Russia throttling supplies to Europe after their invasion of Ukraine) reveal the ongoing importance of strategic energy resilience.

Tech giants like SpaceX and Meta are increasingly behaving like sovereign powers

Companies now make unilateral decisions once reserved for nation-states, such as controlling satellite internet access in active war zones and influencing global information flows. Lawmakers and the international order are struggling to keep up with technological developments, let alone regulate them.

The Council on Foreign Relations maps conflicts to watch in 2026

This interactive map highlights conflicts to watch in 2026, rating each by likelihood and potential impact and allowing users to explore detailed background on every potential hotspot.

Explore the Council on Foreign Relations' essay collection on the future of US foreign policy

This project brings together expert essays examining the future of American strategy, regional relations, geoeconomics, great power rivalry, and war in a rapidly changing global landscape.

The Bretton Woods economic order was built on Keynesian principles

Keynesian economics suggests that governments should actively manage economies to prevent downturns, promote employment, and regulate markets. The Bretton Woods institutions were created based on this belief that coordinated public intervention could prevent the economic crises of the 1930s.

How failures at Versailles Conference led to more racial inequality

Suffering a pandemic and the aftermath of a war that killed 50 million, the world in 1920 faced a turning point as it negotiated a new political order. As today, the key issue was racial inequality.

Explore 100 years of communism across the globe, from the 1917 October Revolution to North Korea's modern nuclear defiance.

How did China go from an empire to a republic?

In the 1800s, as China's economy was in flux, foreign imperialist powers began appearing on the horizon, leading China to lose land and influence in the region. This 48-minute podcast episode explores how this destabilization set the stage for the...

The threat of nuclear annihilation reshaped global diplomacy

The first use of atomic weapons introduced the possibility of a war with no survivors. This article examines how nuclear fear shaped Cold War diplomacy and continues to influence international relations today.

The Concert of Europe was an earlier attempt to manage great power relations through shared rules

After the Napoleonic wars, European powers established a system of regular consultation to manage conflicts and maintain the balance of power. It offered relative stability for nearly a century before deteriorating.

Defining the use of 'Third World' in geopolitics

The term "Third World" is mostly out of use today for its limiting connotations, but in light of a reordering of geopolitical alliances amid the Ukraine war, historians are reevaluating the term's usefulness. Read the history of the term starting from the 1950s, and learn what several experts claim about its contemporary efficacy.