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Fragile Ceasefire, US Baby Bust, and Flying Fish Chaos

US fertility rate drops to record low. Find this story and more in today's digest.

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Good morning. It's Friday, April 10, and we're covering a strained Middle East ceasefire, a record-low US fertility rate, and much more. First time reading? Join over 4.7 million insatiably curious readers. Sign up here.

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 Need To Know 

 

Ceasefire Under Strain

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday he is seeking direct talks with Lebanon to disarm Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants. The announcement came a day after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed more than 300 people and followed repeated requests from Beirut. Talks between the two countries are expected to begin next week in Washington, DC. 

Israel's military said it targeted over 100 sites, including Hezbollah headquarters and command-and-control centers. The bombardment has strained a two-week US-Iran ceasefire brokered Tuesday, which Israel says does not cover its operations in Lebanon. More than 1 million people in Lebanon have been displaced since last month, and at least 1,500 people have been killed, per Lebanon's health ministry. European leaders yesterday called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire. 

Meanwhile, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, with Iran continuing to block vessel passage as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs in the balance. Vice President JD Vance is expected to travel to Pakistan this weekend for peace talks with Iran.

 

Hot Niño Summer

An El Niño is expected to usher in warmer-than-usual global temperatures and fewer-than-average Atlantic hurricanes, according to meteorological reports released yesterday. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 61% chance that an El Niño will develop between May and July. The natural climate pattern—characterized by warmer ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific—amplifies winds in the Atlantic, which disrupts developing storms. A separate Colorado State University report predicts Atlantic hurricane activity will fall to 75% of the long-term average, with six this year. Two are anticipated to be Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Last year saw five hurricanes, including three Category 5 (winds of 157 mph or higher) and one Category 4 (130 to 156 mph winds). 

Some computer models suggest the incoming El Niño could be unusually strong, with ocean temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius or more above the long-term average. Meteorologists say this could make 2027 the warmest year on record.

Test your knowledge: Can you distinguish El Niño from its counterpart, La Niña?

 

America's Baby Bust

The US fertility rate hit another record low (w/charts) in 2025, falling from 53.8 to 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released yesterday. The decline extends a nearly two-decade slide and reflects a broader shift toward later childbearing and smaller families. See data here.

Provisional data shows 3,606,400 total births last year, down 1% from 2024. Teen fertility dropped 7% to 11.7 births per 1,000 females ages 15 to 19, while births to that group fell 8% to 125,933. Rates for younger teens ages 15 to 17 and older teens ages 18 to 19 also reached record lows, while the rate for women ages 30 to 34 rose 3%. Since 2007, the overall birth rate has fallen 23%.

The news follows a global trend of declining fertility, with most nations now falling short of the roughly 2.1 children per woman needed for stable populations. Final CDC data is due later in 2026.

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 In The Know 

 

Sports, Entertainment, & Culture

Justice Department opens investigation into the NFL over how many subscription fees fans must pay to watch games across multiple streaming platforms (More)

Cannes Film Festival lineup is roughly 65% composed of films from France, Japan, and Spain, with one film representing the US (More) | Women dominate Academy of Country Music Awards, with Megan Moroney earning nine nods (More)

"Malcolm in the Middle" revival airs today on Hulu; the last episode of the original series aired nearly 20 years ago (More) | Bestselling "The Housemaid" author, who used a pseudonym and wore a wig and glasses, reveals her identity (More

Science & Technology

Leading conservation authority declares emperor penguins and Antarctic fur seals endangered species as sea ice melts and traditional food sources dwindle (More)

Changing a single DNA letter, out of about 2.8 billion, causes female mouse embryos to develop male reproductive organs; the same DNA region helps determine human sex, offering insights into human sex development disorders (More

> Map of human placenta and uterus reveals novel cell subtype unique to pregnancy that appears involved in linking the placenta to the maternal blood supply (More

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Business & Markets

> US stock markets close up (S&P 500 +0.6%, Dow +0.6%, Nasdaq +0.8%) ahead of US-Iran talks (More

Core personal consumption expenditures price index—excluding food and energy—rose 3% year over year in February, staying above Federal Reserve's 2% target; figure is in line with economist forecasts (More

Disney expected to lay off as many as 1,000 employees; comes after new CEO Josh D'Amaro took the reins (More

Politics & World Affairs

> Melania Trump denies allegations of close ties to Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, urges Congress to let victims testify in rare news conference (More) | Watch here (More)

American man arrested by Bahamian authorities in connection with the disappearance of his wife during a dinghy ride (More) | Florida officials open probe into OpenAI's role in deadly Florida State University shooting last year (More

The US to enforce automatic registration into the military draft beginning in December for most male citizens ages 18 to 26; Trump administration last month said it had no plans to enact a draft (More

In-Depth

> The Hypercurious Mind

Aeon | Anne-Laure Le Cunff. A neuroscientist with ADHD asks what would happen if society stopped making people with hyperactive minds sit still and, instead, let their energy loose? (Read

The Buffalo Raiders

The Atavist Magazine | Stephen Wood. Fueled by grief over lost loved ones and moral outrage, a ragtag network of young Catholics broke into government offices to destroy draft cards during the Vietnam War. How did they do it? (Read, w/audio) 

Flu-Resistant Humans

Short Wave | Staff. Between 5% and 35% of people don't get the flu despite being exposed. An analysis of their mouthwash may explain why—and could help protect the rest of us. (Listen

Before You Buy More Pink Salt ...

Business Insider | Staff. That Himalayan pink salt you pay a premium for at the grocery store was likely mined under hazardous conditions in Pakistan's Punjab region. And the salt might not even be good for you. (Watch

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 Etcetera 

 

Breaking down US adults' reading habits

 

See powerful winners of the World Press Photo Contest.

 

World's oldest octopus isn't an octopus after all

 

The US housing markets where $1M listings are standard

 

... and Nantucket’s oceanfront homes are sliding into the sea

 

Catchy rap teaches you to count to 100 in Vietnamese. (w/video) 

 

Watch a herd of guinea pigs chomp on watermelon

 

Runner completes half-marathon wearing 55 T-shirts

 

Clickbait: Flying fish whack US boaters: "Darn near knocked me out." (w/videos) 

 

Historybook: “The Great Gatsby” published (1925); Labor rights activist Dolores Huerta born (1930); Football personality John Madden born (1936); Paul McCartney leaves the Beatles (1970); Good Friday Agreement is signed (1998).

"Let us learn to show our friendship for a man when he is alive and not after he is dead."

- Meyer Wolfsheim in F. Scott Fitzgerald's "The Great Gatsby"

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