Good morning. It's Thursday, Nov. 5, and Americans still don't have an outcome from Tuesday's elections—but we're closer to an answer. Have feedback? Let us know at [email protected].

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NEED TO KNOW

Biden Leads Tight Race

We're Election Day plus two in the US, and as of this writing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump 264-214 in Electoral College votes according to The Associated Press, with 60 votes remaining. Biden picked up key victories in Wisconsin and Michigan, while votes in Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are still undecided. 

Arizona (11 electoral votes), which was called for Biden by the AP and Fox News but not other outlets, is still awaiting a final vote tally. Another update is expected this morning. Some analysts say there is a possibility the state will revert to President Trump. Biden leads the state by 2.4% as of this writing, with more than 10% of the vote to be counted.

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) was extremely competitive, with Biden winning by a margin of just 0.6%, or roughly 21,000. Though narrow, it's roughly the same margin Trump won the state by in 2016. The state was called yesterday afternoon—the Trump campaign said it would request a recount.

Michigan (16 electoral votes) saw a dramatic shift from late Tuesday through yesterday morning, as votes from large, predominantly urban counties were counted. The state was called for Biden yesterday, though the Trump campaign is expected to mount legal challenges—including an already-filed suit arguing poll watchers were not able to adequately observe vote tallying. Biden currently leads by 2.4%.

The president entered yesterday with an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). Officials said they still had at least 1.4 million absentee votes to count, which appeared to skew Democrat. Ballots may be counted until Nov. 6 so long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3, though this extension is likely to be challenged. As of this writing, Trump currently leads by 2.6% with roughly 10% of the vote left to be counted; the tally is expected to take until at least Friday.

Biden holds onto a narrow 8,000-vote lead in Nevada (six electoral votes). Officials spent yesterday counting late mail and provisional ballots, but are waiting until later this morning to release an update.

The race in Georgia (16 electoral votes) appears unexpectedly tight, coming down to the Atlanta metro area. Trump leads by 0.5% with roughly 5% of the vote left to count—the outcome is expected today. The president won North Carolina's 15 electoral votes, and, as mentioned yesterday, Trump scored a huge victory in Florida, outperforming with Cuban Americans. 

While a handful of the above states need to complete tallies, and pending legal challenges, if the current electoral map holds it would secure Biden 270 votes—and the presidency—without needing Pennsylvania or Georgia. 

Regardless of the eventual outcome, the 2020 election was an epic duel. An estimated 160 million voters cast ballots, the highest raw total in history, and the largest turnout rate (67%) in more than 100 years. Biden currently leads the nationwide popular vote by 3.6 million.  

Senate Likely to Stay Red

With the dust settling on a number of down-ballot races, Republicans appear likely to hold on to their Senate majority. Democrats entered the election needing to pick up either three or four seats, depending on who wins the White House (the vice president acts as a tie). The current count is 48-48 with four seats left to be called.

Democrats flipped two seats in Colorado and Arizona, but gave up a seat in Alabama. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), believed to be one of the most vulnerable incumbents, finished with a considerable lead over challenger Sara Gideon (D), avoiding a move to ranked-choice voting (what is that?). In North Carolina, Republican incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis leads challenger Cal Cunningham (D) by 1.8 points; Cunningham watched a preelection lead evaporate after a September revelation of an extramarital affair.

In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters (D) scored a come from behind victory over challenger John James (R), winning by about 60,000 votes. Finally, at least one race in Georgia is headed to a Jan. 5 runoff, while a second race between incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R) and challenger Jon Ossoff (D) may head to a runoff if Perdue doesn't have at least 50% of the final vote. 

A Senate race in Alaska is still outstanding, but incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) has a wide lead over Al Gross (D).

House Democrats appear on track to maintain their majority in the lower chamber, but Republicans made a number of unexpected gains, including ousting 15-term congressman and chairman of the House Agriculture Committee Collin Peterson (D, MN-7). Overall the current tally is 204-190 with 41 seats undecided. 

COVID-19 Surge Continues

Cases of COVID-19 continue to surge both across the country and around the world, with the US reporting an estimated 91,530 new cases on Election Day—the second time the figure exceeded 90,000 since the pandemic began. That was followed by a record 103,000 cases reported yesterday. The rolling average for new daily cases now sits above 89,000 (see data), having almost doubled over the past month. The increase is not driven by increased testing—the positivity rate, or share of positive tests returned, has risen from 4.3% to 7.4% (see data). The country also reported 1,130 deaths Tuesday. 

Overseas, residents in the United Kingdom enjoyed a final day of shopping, eating, and barhopping, as a monthlong national lockdown went into effect this morning. Schools, universities, and factories will remain open.

In related news, a North Dakota politician who died from COVID-19 won a seat in the state Legislature.

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IN THE KNOW

Sports, Entertainment, & Culture

> An estimated 56.9 million viewers tuned in to election night, down from 71.4 million in 2016; Fox News led all networks with 13.6 million viewers (More)

> NBA and players reportedly nearing agreement for Dec. 22 start to 2020-21 season with a reduced 72-game schedule (More) | Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts headlines list of MLB Gold Glove winners (More)

> Warner Bros. issues apology after “The Witches” received widespread backlash from disability rights groups over depiction of film villain with missing fingers (More)

Science & Technology

> Landmark study identifies thousands of genes responsible for determining height in people of European ancestry (More)

> Scientists make near-atomic maps of the molecules that maintain pH balance inside brain cells, a role critical for preventing strokes and brain injuries (More)

> Astronomers make first observation of fast radio bursts from a source located inside the Milky Way; the mysterious phenomena release transient, intense bursts of energy (More) | What are FRBs? (More)

Business & Markets

Brought to you by The Ascent

> US stock markets up (S&P 500 +2.2%, Dow +1.3%, Nasdaq +3.8%); investors move into tech stocks as election outcome hangs in the balance (More)

> Shares of Uber and Lyft surge more than 10% following California’s passage of Prop 22 ballot initiative, allowing gig economy companies to classify workers as contractors instead employees (More)

> Biogen shares soar 42% after FDA states data support approval of experimental Alzheimer’s drug (More)

Mortgage rates are at a historic low. No matter what you bought your home at, there's no stopping you from refinancing at the incredible market rates today, which can amount to thousands in savings. Carpe diem, while it lasts. #Ad

Politics & World Affairs

> Hurricane Eta triggers landslides and flooding in Central America, killing at least three; storm set to bounce back into the Gulf of Mexico and head toward Cuba and Florida (More) | Real-time trajectory (More)

> The US formally leaves the Paris Agreement, an international pact to curb greenhouse gas emissions; Trump administration initiated the exit process one year ago (More)

> Flávio Bolsonaro, son of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, charged with embezzlement and money laundering amid allegations of involvement with organized crime (More)

IN-DEPTH

Hacking the Immune System

New Yorker | James Somers. A fascinating in-depth look at how the coronavirus hijacks the body's cellular machinery, using our own immune systems against us. (Read, $$)

'They All Got Careless'

Politico | Staff. In the aftermath of his recent dismissal, take an inside look at the slew of allegations against former Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr. (Read)

REVIEWS MATTER

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ETCETERA

Tough week? Science has determined the 10 happiest songs.

Three ideas for living a fuller life.

Go ahead and worry—here's how to be mindful about it. ($$, NYT)

New Mexico makes history with an all female of color House delegation.

The best discoveries from two decades of the International Space Station.

French bulldog unseats Brynneth Pawltro as mayor of Kentucky town.

Even this cat wanted to vote.

Check out these wombats and their skull-crushing butts.

Clickbait: ... and these baby wombats just playing with flowers. (w/video)

Historybook: "Gone with the Wind" actress Vivien Leigh born (1913); Franklin D. Roosevelt is first and only US president elected to third term (1940); Saddam Hussein is sentenced to death (2006); Android operating system from Google unveiled (2007).

"When you come to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

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