Good morning, it's Tuesday, Nov. 3. There's not much else to say—it's all over but the vote (maybe). Have feedback? Let us know at [email protected].

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NEED TO KNOW

Trump vs. Biden

Many Americans head to the polls today to cast ballots for the 2020 general election, bringing an end to more than a year and a half of campaigning. 

Democratic nominee Joe Biden has steadily maintained a wide lead nationally, but polling suggests President Trump has a realistic—albeit fairly narrow—path to an Electoral College victory. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and Florida (29) are effectively must-win states for Trump, with the likeliest path then involving wins in North Carolina (15) and Georgia (16). Biden enters with around a three-point lead in Pennsylvania (see data); the other three states are statistical toss-ups, as is Arizona. Candidates need 270 votes to win; calculate your own Electoral College map here.

Trump beat state-level polling in battleground states by about three points in 2016—a normal margin of error—and some argue current polls likewise undercount the rural white vote and miss hidden Trump voters. Others point out differences between 2016 and 2020, notably that just 3% of voters are undecided now, compared to more than 10% at this point four years ago. 

Similarly, the two biggest third-party candidates—Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) and Howie Hawkins (Green Party)—are expected to have a smaller impact than in 2016. Last cycle more than 4% of voters backed third-party candidates, roughly 6 million votes. Overall, analysts say a Trump win would likely require greater polling errors than seen during the last presidential cycle. 

Voter turnout is on track to be historically large. More than 136 million people voted in 2016 and more than 99 million have already voted this year. The 2020 cycle is by far the most expensive in history, nearing $14B across all races.

There's a good chance we won't know who won by tonight, or even tomorrow. Almost half of US states accept mail-in ballots that arrive late (deadlines vary), while many states—notably Pennsylvania—won't start counting the tremendous number of early ballots until polls close tonight (see breakdown). 

The president, who has argued the result should be known the night of Nov. 3, denied reports he plans to declare premature victory if early returns come in his favor. Such an attempt would preempt the dayslong process of counting mail ballots, which are expected to tilt heavily toward Democrats in states like Pennsylvania and elsewhere. 

Expect early results to start rolling in when the first polls close, around 7pm ET.

Senate Majority Up for Grabs

Republicans enter the day looking to defend their control of the Senate, which they've enjoyed since the 2014 election. Republicans hold 53 seats; majority control of the chamber would flip if Democrats pick up three seats and Joe Biden wins, or four seats if President Trump wins (the vice president acts a tiebreaker).  

On paper, Democrats have a numbers advantage. There are 35 seats up for grabs—Republicans must defend 23, while Democrats have just 12 to protect. Of the 23 Republican seats, nine are listed as either leaning Democrat or toss-ups. The most vulnerable Republicans are Martha McSally (R-AZ), Cory Gardner (R-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME), and Thom Tillis (R-NC).

Just one Democratic-held seat is listed as leaning Republican—Doug Jones (D) of Alabama—with no toss-ups. Michigan's Gary Peters (D), generally viewed as the next most vulnerable Democrat, enters with a five-point lead. 

See a full breakdown here. FiveThirtyEight's modeling projects a 75% chance of control changing hands. Finally, both of Georgia's races appear likely to head to a Jan. 5 runoff, meaning—just like the top of the ticket—who wins control of the chamber may not be known by the end of the night. 

Over in the House, Democrats are forecast to retain their 232-199 majority, while possibly picking up a few additional seats. See the most competitive races here. 

State Races and Ballot Measures

Beyond federal elections, a number of state races and ballot initiatives with potentially wide-ranging impact will be decided today. At the gubernatorial level—typically decided during midterm elections—11 races will be decided, with the only competitive seat being Montana, where term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is running for Senate; Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte, the state's lone congressman, enters the day with a slight edge over Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney (D).

More notably, each party is defending eight vulnerable trifectas—states where one party holds the governorship and both legislative chambers (see map). Across the country, 36 of 50 states enjoy such control; among criticisms, some argue trifectas give one party too much power over gerrymandering, which further cements their control.

Beyond elected office, voters in California will decide the high-profile battle over Prop 22, determining whether gig economy giants like Uber and Lyft must treat workers as employees instead of contractors. Separately, Massachusetts and Alaska both have proposals that would implement some form of ranked-choice voting—an approach some believe may help depolarize the political environment and loosen the grip of the traditional two-party power structure. See a list of other top ballot measures here.

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Staying healthy has never been a walk in the park. Juggling work, family, sleep, good food, and proper exercise is no small task. And it's only getting harder: Price gaps between healthy and junk food seem to be soaring, and stepping into grocery stores over the past few months has been nothing short of ominous.

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IN THE KNOW

Sports, Entertainment, & Culture

> The Vatican clarifies Pope Francis’ comments on civil unions, says remarks were taken out of context and don’t change church doctrine on homosexuality (More)

> “Baby Shark” becomes most-watched YouTube video ever, surpassing “Despacito” with 7.04 billion views (More) | Bruce Springsteen is first musician to have albums hit top 5 on Billboard charts for six consecutive decades (More)

> AMC Theatres reports losses of $900M for fiscal third quarter as COVID-19 kept theaters closed (More) | “Jeopardy!” legends Ken Jennings and James Holzhauer sign on to new ABC quiz show “The Chase” (More)

Science & Technology

> Severe cases of COVID-19 linked to the deficiency of interferon proteins, which signal to cells to raise their immune defenses in the presence of a virus; sheds light on seemingly unpredictable susceptibility to the disease (More)

> MIT researchers develop portable, high-power terahertz laser system that can be used at room temperature; applications range from imaging skin cancer to detecting hidden explosives (More)

> Live beta testing of SpaceX's Starlink space-based internet begins; one user reports 120 Mbps download speeds from a remote location in Idaho national forest (More)

Business & Markets

Brought to you by The Ascent

> US stock markets up (S&P 500 +1.2%, Dow +1.6%, Nasdaq +0.4%) as investors brace for potentially mercurial election week of trading (More)

> Pair of mall operators that own 130 US shopping malls file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy amid pandemic-induced retail slowdown (More) | East coast diner chain Friendly’s files for Chapter 11 (More)

> Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey to keep job after board committee review led by activist investor Elliott Management (More)

The window for refinancing may be closing. With mortgage rates at historic lows, you may be able to save big by refinancing your rates. But act fast, the window for great rates may be closing soon. #Ad

Politics & World Affairs

> At least two people killed, 15 injured after gunman opens fire in Vienna, Austria; police still investigating whether additional attackers were involved (More) | At least 19 people killed and 22 injured as gunmen attack Kabul University in Afghanistan (More)

> Thirteen-year-old Missouri boy dies from COVID-19, becoming the state's youngest victim (More) | US has reported almost 9.3 million cases, with more than 231,500 deaths; see rolling averages (cases, deaths)

> Hurricane Eta on track to make landfall in Nicaragua as a Category 4 storm today (More) | Real-time trajectory here (More)

IN-DEPTH

A Guide to Historical US Elections

270toWin | Staff. A visual guide displaying how each state has voted in US presidential elections, dating back to 1789. Click on each map for background on each race and what were the pressing issues of the day. (Read)

The Year the Electoral College Was Almost Abolished

History.com | Dave Roos. Once upon a time, a switch to a direct national vote to choose the US president—essentially abolishing the Electoral College—had bipartisan support. (Read)

YOU JOIN, THRIVE GIVES

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ETCETERA

How Election Day in 1920 changed politics forever.

Charting the world's highest cities.

Visualizing 20 years of the International Space Station. ($$, NYT)

AI-powered camera mistakes a referee's bald head for a soccer ball.

This is how you utilize roof spaces.

People are paying tribute to a dog that died 100 years ago.

... and check out this terrifying gallery of ghost dogs.

A giant whale tale miraculously prevents a train wreck.

Clickbait: Russian Sausage King killed in sauna by crossbow.

Historybook: RIP American sharpshooter Annie Oakley (1926); HBD journalist and fashion icon Dame Anna Wintour (1949); Soviet Union launches first animal into space (1957); US arms sale to Iran revealed (1986); One World Trade Center officially opens on former site of Twin Towers (2014).

"Fashion's not about looking back. It's always about looking forward."

- Dame Anna Wintour

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