5.11.2023

Title 42 Ends

A pandemic-era border policy known as Title 42 is set to expire at midnight tonight, ending one of the federal government's primary tools in addressing a surge of migrants arriving at the US-Mexico border over the past two years. Its ending was triggered by the expiration of the COVID-19 public health emergency.

Most migrants arrive at the border and claim asylum. Adjudicating the process may take years, during which migrants are typically allowed to remain in the US (see overview). Title 42, originally implemented as an effort to blunt the spread of the coronavirus, allowed the government to expel certain migrants—mostly single adults—without going through the asylum process. 

Migrant flows across the southwest border have reached record highs since 2021, nearing 2.4 million encounters in fiscal year 2022 (which covered October 2021-22, see data) and passing 250,000 in December alone (roughly one-quarter are reencounters with previously expelled individuals). About 45% of encounters in 2022 ended with Title 42 expulsion or about 1.1 million people. 

Anticipating an additional surge in migrants, the White House reinstated a Trump-era rule limiting asylum eligibility while ordering 1,500 active-duty troops to the border. 

Santos Charges Unsealed

Rep. George Santos (R, NY-03) pleaded not guilty yesterday to 13 charges in federal court, the result of a five-month investigation into reports the lawmaker fabricated parts of his resume and history. The indictment includes counts of wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds, and making false statements to Congress. He could face up to 20 years in prison if convicted.

A month after flipping the Democratic-held seat in November, reports surfaced accusing the 34-year-old lawmaker of false claims regarding his educational history, his employment with top Wall Street firms, Jewish heritage, and more. Further scrutiny revealed issues with his campaign funds, the primary focus of yesterday's charges. He faces separate federal, state, and congressional investigations, as well as allegations of check fraud in Brazil. 

Santos, who is running for reelection in 2024, was released on a $500K bond with travel limits and is expected to continue to work in Congress through the trial. See a timeline of Santos' political journey here.

Inflation Growth Eases  

US inflation in April grew to less than 5% annually for the first time in two years, according to government data released yesterday. The consumer price index—a measure of inflation that tracks the change in prices of a basket of goods and services—rose 4.9% year-over-year last month. The figure is lower than analyst estimates and the 5% rate in March, marking the 10th consecutive month of decline in the year-over-year growth rate. 

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in April, the same as in March, and 5.5% year-over-year, down from 5.6% in March. The latest figures are in line with expectations. Increased costs for shelter, gasoline, and used vehicles contributed to the rise in the overall inflation rate, which was offset by decreases in fuel, new vehicles, and food at home. See data here.

The consumer price index has cooled since peaking at a 9% annual growth rate in June 2022 (see chart) but still holds above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target. 

Correction: Yesterday, we mistakenly listed a "D" in referring to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. He is, in fact, a Republican representing California's 20th District. Thanks to readers for pointing out the typo.

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