2.8.2024

Hostage-Release Negotiations

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday rejected a counterproposal from Hamas for a cease-fire and hostage-release plan, saying Israel would continue its military operations in Gaza until an "absolute victory" is reached against Hamas. Israel claims to have dismantled 18 of Hamas' 24 battalions so far and is preparing to move its forces into Rafah near Egypt's border, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians have been residing. 

Hamas reportedly proposed a three-phase plan over a 135-day pause in fighting that included a full withdrawal of Israeli forces in Gaza, exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners, increasing deliveries of food and aid, rebuilding the enclave, and ending the war. Hamas' proposal came in response to a plan from the US, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt, for which details are sparse. Roughly 136 of the previously kidnapped 240 hostages are still being held by Hamas; Israel believes at least 31 of the remaining hostages are no longer alive. 

Separately, a US drone strike in Iraq killed a senior commander of the Iran-backed group Kataib Hezbollah, who is believed to be behind a deadly attack on a US base in Jordan. See war updates here.

Pakistan Elections

Pakistanis will cast ballots today in a twice-delayed parliamentary election, the first since former cricketer Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party ascended in 2018. The popular Khan, who has been jailed since last year and recently received three more jail sentences, was ousted in 2022 after losing support from the country's military.

Analysts expect the military-backed Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz party will receive the most votes, paving the way for three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to be elected to a fourth term. Sharif returned to Pakistan in October after spending four years abroad waiting for corruption charges against him to be dropped. No prime minister has held office for the entirety of a five-year term in the country's 76-year history. 

The election comes a day after 30 people were killed in twin bomb attacks in the country's southwest and as the nuclear power faces worsening economic conditions and escalating tensions with neighbors Iran, India, and Afghanistan.  

Border Bill Fails

The Senate failed to advance legislation combining border security provisions and supplemental foreign aid yesterday in a 49-50 vote, ending a monthslong effort by a small bipartisan group of senators to forge a compromise package. Sixty votes were needed to move the package forward.

The $118B bill included $20B in border funding while implementing a number of policy changes, including raising the standard for asylum and shutting down ports of entry if migrant arrivals pass 5,000 per day (see details). The majority of remaining funds were directed toward military aid—$60B for Ukraine, $14B for Israel, and about $5B for the Indo-Pacific region. 

GOP negotiators had initially pushed for border security measures as a prerequisite for approving the foreign aid. The caucus ultimately soured on the deal, with many arguing the provisions did not go far enough and would normalize historically high levels of migration. 

Debate is expected to continue today on a standalone bill encompassing only the overseas funding components. 

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