Good morning. It's Friday, Feb. 12, and we're covering day three of the Senate impeachment trial, budget deficits, and the Lunar New Year. Have feedback? Let us know at [email protected].

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NEED TO KNOW

Trump Defense Begins

The first half of the Senate impeachment trial finished yesterday, as House managers closed their final arguments alleging former President Donald Trump was responsible for the Jan. 6 storming of the US Capitol. The day was less emotionally charged than Wednesday, when a montage of new footage was revealed (see previous write-up). Prosecutors primarily focused on demonstrating that many in the crowd believed they were acting at the behest of Trump.

The former president's defense lawyers will begin their rebuttal today and are expected to argue a conviction of a now-private citizen is unconstitutional (see overview). Ancillary defenses include an argument the events of Jan. 6 do not meet the legal definition of insurrection and an assertion that the process violates Trump's First Amendment rights. Read the pretrial brief here.

The defense team has 16 hours to present its case, though reports suggest they may try and finish today. Barring a decision to call witnesses, such a scenario may set up a final vote as early as tomorrow. 

Historic Deficits

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the 2021 budget deficit will reach $2.3T, according to projections released yesterday. The figure, down $900B from last year, is expected to be equal to more than 10% of the gross domestic product—the sum of the country's goods and services produced annually. 

The past two years have seen the highest deficit-to-GDP ratios since World War II (see data), which peaked near 27% in 1943. The historic shortfalls were a combination of more than $3.5T in pandemic stimulus funding and stymied economic activity, which decreases tax revenues collected by the government. Overall, the yearly budget gaps are expected to push the national debt to more than $35T or 107% of GDP—the highest in US history. 

Notably, the projections do not include a $1.9T stimulus package currently under consideration. See the full report here.

Year of the Ox

Celebrations for the Lunar New Year get underway today, marking the start of the lunisolar calendar in many East Asian countries. Largely driven by China, the events make up what is recognized as the largest annual human migration, though travel is expected to be significantly down this year as officials try to prevent hundreds of millions of city-based migrant workers from returning home amid the pandemic. 

Linked to the repeating 12-year Chinese Zodiac cycle, the new year also marks the transition from the Year of the Rat into the Year of the Ox, a sign that symbolizes strength and fairness (see a visual guide). 

Many of the celebrations will also carry a tone of relief. Last year, China placed three cities with 18 million residents under a strict lockdown just as festivities began, in an attempt to blunt the nascent pandemic. Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, has been virus-free for months.

Share 1440 with your Valentine (and don't forget, Valentine's Day is Sunday).

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IN THE KNOW

Sports, Entertainment, & Culture

> Meghan Markle wins privacy lawsuit against British tabloid that published a letter she wrote to her father (More) | Disney+ tops expectations and announces it now has almost 95 million subscribers; Netflix still tops all streamers with 203.7 million subs (More)

> Taylor Swift announces a rerecording of her entire first No. 1 album “Fearless” to be released in April (More) | Here’s why Swift is rerecording her first six albums (More)

> Chick Corea, 23-time Grammy-winning jazz musician and former member of Miles Davis’ band, dies at 79 from cancer (More) | Tokyo 2020 Olympics president Yoshiro Mori to resign today following backlash over sexist comments he made earlier this month (More)

Science & Technology

> Researchers demonstrate the ability to map the seafloor by measuring the seismic effect of whale songs; fin whales vocalize around 185 decibels, similar to a rocket launch (More)

> Scientists grow Neanderthal-like mini-brains, allowing them to compare the brain development of human ancestors with modern-day humans (More) | What is an organoid? (More)

> Discarded antidepressants polluting waterways affect the behavior of fish, blunting their unique individual behaviors; effect may harm species' ability to adapt to environmental changes (More)

Business & Markets

Brought to you by The Ascent

> Shares of online dating app Bumble soar 76% in market debut to $14B valuation, making the company's 31-year-old female CEO, Whitney Wolfe Herd, a billionaire (More)

> Sources say regulators are investigating the trading in GameStop shares for market manipulation or other misconduct; the “meme stock” surged to $483 in late January and currently trades at $51 (More)

> Initial unemployment claims decrease to 793,000 filed during the previous week, though higher than economist forecasts; weekly total still above the pre-pandemic record of 695,000 set in 1982 (More)

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Politics & World Affairs

> Biden administration says the US has contracts to secure 600 million vaccine doses by July (More) | Report finds more than 9,000 COVID-19 patients were released into New York nursing homes early in the pandemic under a directive from Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) (More) | The US has reported 475,444 total deaths, with 3,877 reported yesterday; see rolling averages (More)

> China bans BBC from airing in the country, following critical coverage of the pandemic and the treatment of the country's Uighur Muslim minority; the United Kingdom banned China's state-owned CGTV last week (More)

> At least six killed after icy conditions cause a 133-car pileup outside Fort Worth, Texas, along Interstate 35 (More)

IN-DEPTH

One Lone Infection

Wired UK | Matt Reynolds. Scientists believe B.1.1.7, the fast-spreading coronavirus variant first seen in the UK, may have gradually mutated in a single person suffering from a chronic SARS-CoV-2 infection. (Read)

Apocalypse in Dresden

WWII Museum | Jason Dawsey. (From 2020) This weekend marks the 76th anniversary of the Allied firebombing of Dresden, Germany. Both a cultural refuge and a strategically important industrial center for Nazi Germany, the attack left the city almost wholly destroyed. (Read)

What a Time To Be Sober

The Cut | Avery Trufelman. (Podcast) The pandemic has put many people's drinking habits under the microscope—while driving others to reexamine their abstinence. (Listen)

Snatched To Train Spies

BBC | Rebecca Seales, Hideharu Tamura. Between 1977 and 1983, North Korea allegedly abducted at least 17—and possibly up to 100—Japanese citizens, forcing them to teach North Korean spies how to pass as Japanese. (Read)

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