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Above-average hurricane activity this season

The Gulf Coast and the eastern United States are expected to experience above-average hurricane activity this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced yesterday. If the forecast proves accurate, this year would be the seventh straight year of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. See how an average season is calculated here.

The upcoming year is expected to see anywhere from 14 to 21 named storms—those with wind speeds above 39 mph. Of those, six to 10 are expected to develop into hurricanes, which have winds of at least 74 mph, and three to six are likely to develop into Category 3 hurricanes or stronger, with winds of at least 111 mph. Warmer than average sea temperatures fuel the activity (see 101).

The past two hurricane seasons exhausted the list of 21 named storms, with 2020 being the most active year on record (30 named storms) and 2021 being the third most active year (21), behind 2005 (28).

The season officially begins June 1.